THE TEMPO IN THE MIDDLE EAST SPEEDS UP!!

Here are three quick issues that will give you a good snapshot of where

things in the region stand as of today.

1.  Look at this story and remember the events in Syria set the tone for

events in Lebanon.

Half of Lebanon is cheered for  the bombing in Damascus, while the  current

Lebanese government condemned the bombing.

Hezbollah is in far greater trouble than most realize and that is a real

danger.

Remember; Iran cannot accept the loss of Hezbollah and Syria.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9145

2.  The Syrian government is trying to shape a information campaign that

gets the people of Damascus ready for witnessing uniformed members fighting

uniformed members.

This could be an indication of just how saver the defection issue has

become.

The lack of well planned counter attacks might be the result of Assad's

military commanders trying to determine what units can be trusted?

It also takes time to execute a " counter strike", especially  when you are caught off guard.

The problem with telling the public they may see uniformed members

assaulting their neighborhoods, besides the fact the public in Damascus

probably no longer believes anything the government tells them, becomes they

don't know who to trust.

To put it in more simplistic terms, the people of Damascus can no longer tell who is a good guy and who is bad guy and even that depends on what side you are on!

That is a recipe for true, uncontrollable panic; the type of panic that

creates a mass exodus and thus a refugee issue for Jordan, Turkey and

Israel.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=278141

3.  Israel did not take the "bait" on the bus bombing.

Notice Netanyahu immediately placed the blame on Iran not just Hezbollah!

Israel understands all too well Iran's plan to have Israel attack "Arabs"

not Iran, thus giving Iran what it thinks would be the support of the Arab

world!!

It will not work, but a plan Iran has never the less.

If Iran is looking for an Israeli overreaction to an attack, it will have to

have its proxy strike again.

My bet is they will.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BULGARIA_ISRAELIS_ATTACKED?SITE=AP

&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-18-13-03-56

The Middle East has become the classic example of events moving far faster

than intelligence and leadership can keep up with.

Everyone is behind the power curve right now and events will drive the

region.

The UN plan for Syria is dead... big surprise.

ASSAD IS NOW BACKED INTO A PHYSICAL CORNER!!!

Well, if the panic mode inside the Assad regime was not high enough, it just

got much worse.

Besides panic, it is now personal for Asssad. His Brother-in-law was killed.

A few issues that make this event more than just significant and exciting

for the media to cover.

1.  The Brigade of Islam quickly took credit for the attack; a  group that

is perceived as a arm of  Islamic / AQ/ radical movement.

    The link between such organizations and the FSA, rebel movement, has

been talked about for months, but this will make the issue bowel to the top.

2.  It's very clear now this campaign has been very well planned and it's

possible the "infiltration" concept is a key aspect of the Damascus attack.

3.  The total loss of confidence of internal security operations, is an

overwhelming issue for Assad's inner circle.  What Guard or groups of Guards

do you "really" trust?

    The supporters of Assad, who are in Damascus, must be trying everything

in their power to get out of the city.

     How would you like to be a Sunni, after the fall of Assad, who is found

by the Rebels to have supported Assad?

     I can guarantee you, someone has as "list" of names / families /

associates, even if it's built on speculation.

4.  The battle in Damascus is very possibly a killing blow to the Syrian

economy.

Who is trading in Damascus in the past three days?

What business are open?

If you are an Assad supporter and you have no confidence who is walking the

streets of Damascus right now, how do you open the doors to your business?

5.  What is Iran thinking right now?

    Does this event drive a wedge between the Iranian advisors to Assad and

the Syrian military leaders?

   Did Iran lose KIA / WIA / in the bomb blast?  ( Don't trust the Syrian

news for the actual body count.)

6.  How many Russians are in Damascus and what is Russia's plan to get them

out?

    Perhaps the Navel flotilla is actually a NEO / Noncombatant Evacuation /

mission?

What does Assad need to do?

 First and foremost, he has to show he controls Damascus or has the ability

to stop the assault and he has to do this without destroying the capital of

Syria!

  It is and it will continue to be virtually impossible to control the

streets of the city without a curfew!

 Without one, at least in the sections of the city where the fighting is

taking place and that appears to be just about anywhere now, Assad's forces

will have no idea  who is just out walking and who is "scouting".

The problem becomes the impact of a curfew.

It is equivalent to admitting the city, the capital, is under siege.

The perception of advantage goes completely to the rebels.

What might the result of this event be?

Assad stands the chance of actually losing this conflict.

The spread of panic can lead to an uncontrollable climate in the entire

city.

 With the loss of his Brother- in-law, Assad now has anger, blood revenge,

on his mind more than ever.

Striking back while he still can is quickly becoming his only option.

Homs or other rebel strongholds are in great danger.

If Assad was ever going to utilize his full military capacity, it will be

now.

He can't fight a Tank and Fighter / Bomber campaign in Damascus, well..

maybe tanks, but he can turn lose his entire arsenal as a revenge event.

Homs is a logical target.

Assad is now a very illogical person.

The rest of the bad news comes from the rebels.

As I said yesterday, it's one thing for young men to get caught up in the

"glory" of shooting and fighting, it's far more complex to understand when

to stop killing and fighting.

Do the rebels, FSA, have an " endgame" ?

What is the plan if Damascus really was to fall within the next few days?

Might last question and the one I always come back to.

What will the Tsar do and what will Iran do?

Was the bombing of the bus in Bulgaria  simply a coincidence?  

Remember my theory of Iran's "Red Line" for Syria.

If Assad falls, so does Hezbollah in Lebanon and so do the dreams / plans of the Persian Empire.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9408321/Assads-br

other-in-law-and-top-Syrian-officials-killed-in-Damascus-suicide-bomb.html

SYRIA'S    TET????

As a follow up to my comments last night:

Some say the Tet Offensive was a turning point in the Vietnam War.

If what we are witnessing is the Syrian conflict's version of Tet, in

Damascus, then the same may hold true.

 Several interesting strategic events are becoming more and more clear as

the battle inside Damascus unfolds.

1.  The Rebels, by design I'm sure, have taken the pressure off of Homs and

other territories where they are attempting to solidify their hold.

             It's nearly impossible for Assad to go on the offensive, at least

for now, in other regions of Syria while his Headquarters is under attack.

             The Rebels will take advantage of this Damascus event to resupply

and prepare for the next round of attacks in the North.

2.  By attacking Damascus in force, Assad's supporters are probably losing

all hope of him, and them, staying in power.

3.  If the stories of Assad's troops firing into the Palestinian Refugee

Camps of Damascus are true, then the number of bodies ready to support the

conflict inside the city just increased tenfold.

             By the way; a brilliant move on the part of the Rebels; attack and

            then fall back into the Palestinian camps and force Assad's troops to fire

            on the Palestinian refugees in Damascus!

4.  This offensive in Damascus may smoke out the Iranian support and expose

it to the media.

           

            Imagine a Command Post full of angry senior Syrian military leaders

            with Iranian "aids" still whispering in the ear of Assad.

This Syrian "Tet" event is real trouble for Assad and Iran and Russia know

it.

Even if Assad's forces beat back the attackers, the visual impact to the

city, one his supporters still there will see, will have a devastating

impact.

The Rebels may have planned a brilliant "Tet" style event, but did they plan

an "end game"?

Imagine a Syrian senior leader, especially a military one, who defects and

makes the comment Assad is only listening to Iranian " Aids".

If someone makes the comment,  " Assad is murdering his own people with the

help of Iranian supporters", and that comment comes not from the Rebels, but

from a senior Syrian defector?

Tracking the WMD stockpiles is critical.

If Israel sees them being handed over to Hezbollah or other radical groups,

then what?

The Syiran "Tet" may be the game changer for not just Syria, but for the

whole region.

http://www.debka.com/article/22183/South-Damascus-embattled-Syrian-high-comm

and-moves-to-fortified-site

THE BATTLE FOR DAMASCUS??? MAYBE ROUND ONE.

Has a decisive battle for the capital of Syria begun?

I wouldn't hold my breath, but the fighting in the past 48 hrs is truly an important event.

The defector's comment in this article brings up a classic concept in unconventional warfare.

Would it have been a brilliant tactic to stockpile weapons inside the capital city over an extended period of time?

Yes.

Forcing your opponent to fight a battle near the core of it's support where it would be virtually impossible to paint a rosy picture as the sound of the battle rages outside the very windows where the " support" lives, is a classic move.

How do you explain to your supporters that everything is just fine, if you have to fly gunships over their houses?

How can you write off a multiple district street battle as just a minor skirmish, when the population of the city cannot use the highway?

Ok, you get the picture.

It appears the rebels, freedom fighters.. take your pick.... have taken the conflict to a new level, even if it's temporary.

For Assad's forces to hammer the attackers into pulling back, the city will suffer and his supporters will only increase their fear of the repercussion for supporting him.

Make no mistake, the battles in and around Damascus are a serious blow to Assad and they come in a week that he has already had several major blows against him.

I've said this in the past.

Be careful what you ask for or in this case what you fight for.

A desperate leader is a extremely dangerous person.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

HAS SYRIA  / ASSAD/ LEARNED HOW TO POLISH IT'S IMAGE?

Take a close look at this video.

It you turned the sound down and didn't pay attention to the flag, you might think you were watching a Whitehouse Press conference in the US.

Is this by accident?

I say not!

Could the defense of the Tremseh event be the beginning of a new Information Campaign to change the perception of Syria?

If this is true, and I believe it is, then who has brought this new technique to Assad and Syria?

It's possible they have made this transformation on their own, but I doubt it.

So, again, where did this "change" come from?

Iran?

Nope..

The Iranian government does a moderate to poor job of pubic messaging outside of Iran and they have never tried to look, "European" in a official governmental announcement.

Ok, my hint was in the last statement!

My bet is the Russians!!!!!

The masters of public messaging for decades were the Russians / Soviets.

The Masters of the Masters within the Soviet Empire was the KGB.

Who was the former head of the KGB?

Are you catching my drift yet?

My hunch is the Russians have refined the public messaging  process for Syria.

My question becomes why?

What is the goal of this new look?

We all understand that perception is reality and the perception painted by a well spoken, well dressed, professional speaker, is far more believable than a Radical Cleric foaming at the mouth about violence and revenge; casting blame in all directions.

Now, get past the visual changes in this press announcement and look at the next interesting "change".

Listen to the tone of the speaker?

Listen to his "tone".

He states that " Mr Annan's letter was very rushed"????

A very limited and as much as possible non-confrontational stance.

Next, the speaker explains what took place in Tremseh was not a " massacre", but an armed confrontation between government forces and the rebels.

Without saying it, the message is understood; in conflict innocent people are killed.

Now, the fact Syria had 48hrs to clean up the area weakens this information campaign, but regardless, it is obvious Syria is attempting to change the face of the government; perception!

If we assume the Russians, Putin, has convinced Assad to develop a more polished public information process, who is the real audience?

The people of the Middle East?

I don't think so.

It's not a style the general public in the Middle East is use to seeing, unless it's a press conference from the West.

My bet is this new tactic is partially addressed to the business class and other educated supporters of his regime.

When Assad has a very well spoken, ex Ambassador defect and show up on all the Western media networks, the Russians probably informed him, to change tactics.

The question becomes, will it work?

In the case of the events in Tremesh, it appears the damage has been limited and some are even questioning if a "massacre" took place, or did innocent civilians simply get caught up in the battle.

The UN investigators, one would hope, will be able to determine what type of battles took place inside the buildings and what type of wounds the bodies they do examine have.

As a point of fact, point blank gun shots are much different than being shot from several meters away; a tactic the ruthless Thugs that support Assad should have already figured out.

So, again; will this new tactic of public messaging work?

Well, it can't hurt.

Assad is learning and adapting.

The rest of the word must stay vigilant to the ever evolving tricks from Assad and those who still support him.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/07/201271593331131542.html

OH... TO BE A FLY ON THE WALL!!!!

Morsi's first trip out of Egypt being one to Saudi should come as no surprise to anyone.

Two polished men both skilled in the art of " speaking between the words spoken".

My hunch the simplistic version of this meeting went something like this.

" So, you need funding and you need public support as the new leader of Egypt?  What's in it for me"?

Now, the more polite way of saying this was executed I am sure, but the real message would not have been lost.

Here is the real question.

Who needs who more?

Morsi needs money and support.

Saudi needs "assurances" and Morsi at his word.

Is the Brotherhood a "friend" of the Saudi Royal Family?

Not really!

Both have agendas and they do not share a common "vision" of what the Middle East should look like.

The good news is, they both know this.

The art of outmaneuvering your opponent is a classic game in the region and both men know how to play it well.

Read carefully and you will see Morsi chose his words well.

As is always the case in the Middle East the press announcement was packed with " small talk".

Hidden messages are often derived from what is not said or what is not spoken more than what is praised.

Morsi is well aware of the relationship Mubarak  had with the Saudi Royals.

The King is well aware of the "Vision" of the MB.

In all the articles I read about this historic meeting, I found only one indirect message dealing the fire that is Syria and absolutely nothing in regard to Iran.

A comment by Morsi about "regional stability" is about as indirect as you can get.

This was a great first round of what is going to prove to be a complex Chess match.

Two "Masters" of their Arabic skillcraft..... small talk... with words inside of words.

IS ASSAD REALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE UNTHINKABLE?

As I talked about early this week, the concept of Assad utilizing WMD is more than just frightening; it's historical.

It's historical becuse there is a history of these types of weapons being utilized in the Middle East.

It's historical because Assad knows these weapons have been utilized in the past and the world stood by and watched.

the world complained, but in the end it did little to nothing; until 2003!

So, does Assad think he can get away with using WMD?

Is Assad so desperate that he may utilize the last resort in his arsenal?

As I asked this week, will his generals follow such a dramatic order?

Does he truly control the weapons?

Well, this time, instead of just asking the questions, let me attempt to answer them; my opinion of course!

DOES ASSAD THINK HE CAN GET AWAY WITH IT?

Most likely he is beginning to believe so, but he may not be ready to execute the order..... just yet!

Again the issue of "history" in the region.

As disturbing as this would be, he could limit the action; send the message he is serious about holding on to power.   ( I give this theory backing only if the Tsar and the Persians tell him to go ahead.)

He could accuse "outsiders" of the event, especially a limited event.

"The 'Terrorist' stole  them and used them on the people of Syria".

Finally, lets assume Assad sees no way out of the Civil War he now finds himself in and he understands that time is running out for his military and his hold on power. HINT.. His military is losing major engagements and that is without the Kurds attacking him!!!!

WILL HIS MILITARY LEADERS FOLLOW SUCH AN ORDER?

This  is where one of the last rays of hope still shines.

Given who left him last week and given how close that particular General was to Assad's inner circle, will the other Generals follow such an order?

Here is the cloud with this " ray of hope"!

I don't believe his military leaders are in total control of this process.

To find the answer of how loyal his generals are, we must look to Iran.

It's no secret he has lost confidence in many who he considered "loyal" and even more important, Iran has lost confidence in the Syrian General Officer ranks.

Simply put, if Assad decides or is told to execute a WMD event, it will most likely be carried out with Iranian or Hezbollah oversight.

This event would force the countries of the region and the West into action.

To prove Iran or it's proxy Hezbollah carried out such an event on Syrian soil, would be a absolute "green light" for unified action!

The danger becomes, how does Iran react to the reaction to the WMD event?

Complicated enough for you yet?????

Ok, add the Tsar into the equation!!!

DOES HE TRULY CONTROL THE WEAPONS?

For the most part, I just gave you my opinion on this question.

Here is one twist.

Who controls them if Assad wakes up dead????

Hezbollah???? Iran???? The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood?????

Before Israeli leadership is informed the WMDs are  in Hezbollah hands, the locations will be smoldering holes in the earth....

Ok, what is the near term danger?

If some of these weapons are on the move, and most believe they are, where are they going and who are they going to?

Two questions the Israelis will not wait too terribly long for answer.

For over a year now, I have preached, Chicken Little, just how dangerous this situation in Syria was and is.

Syria is not Egypt... Syria is not Libya... Syria is not Tunisia.

Syria is the most dangerous event in the Middle East since the 1973 war!

 http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=277381