EGYPT, SYRIA, IRAN, TURKEY..... HOT SPOTS THAT ARE GETTING HOTTER.

It's hard to keep a accurate scorecard on events in the Middle East right now.

Gaza events and riots in Israel have gone all but unnoticed for the past four days and this is just an indication of how fast things are moving in the whole region.

Egypt's pending presidential elections results even took a backseat to the event between Syria and Turkey; at least for the past three days.

Today, Egypt will become the major news story.

Some will watch the NATO meeting call for by Turkey, but nobody wants that event to get anymore out of hand than it already has.

Turkey has time to design their response and it appears they are doing just that.

It's interesting Iran has said very little, if anything, on the Syrian / Turkish incident.

If we don't see some indication of the Iranian opinion, it's a sure sign Iran was caught off guard by the whole thing and they to are busy formatting their " Official" opinion.

As for the events in Gaza, it was obvious the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt simply doesn't want this nonsense taking place at this moment in time.

In the past 48hrs the MB has all but warned the actors to stop immediately.

The problem, as it has been, is several of these groups don't march to the drum of the MB.

So, it's going to be an action packed week in the Middle East!!

What else is new???

CONTINUED REVIEW OF SYRIAN / TURKISH INCIDENT.

As I warned yesterday, the "facts" and the "opinions" on this incident are becoming diluted.

It's based, as it should be, on the "politics" of the incident.

Did Syrian Air Defense / ADA / shoot down the Turkish jet based on poor training, weak rules of engagement, paranoia over their own pilots defecting, Turkish pilots not paying attention????

The more important question continues to be, was it an accident or was it a initial step in a far more complex plan.

The second question, and perhaps the most critical question becomes, what does Turkey believe?

            Sub issue:  How does Turkey " use" the event?

Let's take a look at what would have to have taken place if Syria took this action deliberately.

Would Assad risk his support from Russia and more importantly Iran, without some level of consultation?

Is he so confident, based on how he perceives their support for  Syria, that he would authorize the shooting down of a NATO aircraft without even giving Moscow and Tehran a warning?

There is a huge difference between being "decisive" and being an "Incompetent"!!!

I think we all know what camp Assad falls into.

So, for the sake of trying to figure out what is going on here, let's assume, dangerous thing I know, but let's assume Assad had given some indication to both Russia and Iran.

Let's assume he may have made some statement, perhaps weeks ago, that Syria would not tolerate the possibility of "Outside Interference".

Oh... That's right..... He has already made this statement time and time again?

Was anyone, Turkey, really listening?

Oh, ya.. don't forget the Turkish Fighter is a " NATO" Fighter!

All right, let's move on.....

Let's assume the Syrian military has had standing orders to challenge, up to interception, any aircraft entering Syrian airspace.

            Side note: Did the Turkish Fighter enter Syrian airspace? P.S. It happens all over   the world.

Now, let's assume that a micromanaged, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander is notified a " fast mover" is approaching his Air of Operation.

Let's assume this same Commander has just been part of a larger " butt chewing" the day before over the issue of the Syrian Fighter defecting.

Now, has this Air Defense Commander ever had a Fast Mover approaching his AO before?

Probably.

Has he ever had it happen the day after his entire chain of command had their heads handed to them for the defection event?

Nope.

Does he command a unit that he knows by and large is anti Assad?

Probably.

So, he panics, orders the "unknown" Fast Mover intercepted and the next thing he knows, he has shot down a Turkish Fighter Jet????

Maybe!

By the way, do you think he would be a little curious about just ONE jet approaching the Syrian airspace?

Was it just one?

For all you Air Force folks out there.. how many "solo" flights does the Turkish Air Force fly; in a region where tensions are about as high as they can get?

So, the phone rings in Assad's Command and he is initially informed of the event.

What did he do?

Did he call Moscow or Tehran and let them know before the Turkish news media and government make an announcement?

I bet not and that may have been a huge if not fatal mistake.

If Assad didn't properly set up this event; if he didn't get " support" for such a volatile act, then his support may have gone down with the NATO aircraft.

A even more dangerous theory:

But, and this is a huge "but"; but just what if Moscow and Tehran were ready for this event to take place?

What if, Assad was following a plan that has been written out for him incase his ability to hold onto power in Syria was about to fail?

I can't get my mind around this theory, unless you separate the two supporting nations.

Could it be this escalation was a Iranian sponsored event without Moscow support?

Would Putin really support the concept of shooting down a NATO partner aircraft?

His actions since coming back into power have been bold and he knows he has "issues" inside his own country, but supporting a regional conflict, something they have warned about, really?????

I just don't know that I believe it.

Now, Iran is an entirely different story!

For months now, really over a year, I have said the fall of Syria is an unacceptable event for Iran; a " Red Line" they would be willing to cross!

On mutual occasions I have spelled out my " Use or Lose" theory from the Iranian viewpoint.

Over the past few weeks the world has witnessed several hurried meetings between Moscow, Iran and Syria; one on one and as a group and that is only the list of meetings that we overtly know of.

What was decided?

What was talked about?

Ruthless world Leaders don't take the time to sit down and argue over dead-end topics.

Remember, after several of these " meetings" the very first thing the Russians would come to the microphone and say was, how dangerous the situation in Syria was becoming and how it would have repercussions for the whole region.

Ok, let's assume:

Let's assume the Iranians have their " Red Line" and when they reach one of those Red Lines, they have a series of actions they are willing to risk.

Let's assume one of those actions is a " warning" event.

Let's assume this warning event is based on the typical, historical warning events of aircraft and airspace.

Let's assume, that if this " warning" didn't have the desired outcome, and I don't believe there is any chance that it will, Iran was looking for, then there will be another and most likely more dangerous.

Conclusion:

I have looked at two possible scenarios as to how this event took place and the bottom line is..... it's all about to get worse.

Europe is desperate to avoid  more bad news, such as a NATO partner, regional war although some would probably argue the European economy needs a " good war" right about now.. a real dumb theory that idiots always come up with.. the Black Helicopter Gang!

The US administration would like the whole world and the world economy to simply sail along like a scene from the Teletubbies.

Turkey; well from day one of the Arab Spring, the Ottomans have worked hard to figure out a way to be the Regional "Leader".

That is the problem here and I think that is the problem Iran didn't properly think through, if this event was their idea.

The Turks get a vote on what do to about the "event".

A regional war is not what Turkey needs or wants, in my opinion.

But, if Iran, the Persians, overstep the limits, then the Ottomans may show the world they are ready to be  the true stabilizing force in the Middle East.

In the end, my  opinion is a reckless, under trained, paranoid Air Defense Commander has pushed the region to the brink of conflict.

A conflict that Iran and the Turks cannot come out looking like the losers!

Turkish " Perception" and "vision" is the key to the next few days.

Hold on...

SO.  WAS IT REALLY A SHOOTDOWN ??

Well, lets keep this simple and short given this event will have multiple updates as the day moves on.

My best guess is the Syrian Anti Aircraft unit shot the Turkish fighter down thinking it was yet another defecting pilot.

Syrian AA units are about 1/100 as trained and proficient as a typical NATO or Western unit.

What they probably did get was a standing order to fire on any aircraft flying in a  certain area that was not properly identified.

Syrian aircraft to not have FF, Friend or Foe, electronics and a trigger happy AA battery commander would only be thinking about what would happen to him if he allowed another Syrian Jet to travel his air space without authorization.

So,  I don’t buy the theory this was a deliberate act, but the actions of a poorly trained AA unit and paranoid leadership.

This would explain why Turkey has responded so carefully, knowing full well what a disastrous  event this could turn into.

Bottom line, this is just another indication of just how dangerous this whole crisis is becoming.

Have countries fallen into conflicts over a miss communication or a paranoid mistake?

Really… is that a serous question?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/20126221721460173.html

DID THE UN REALLY PULL OUT?

Many were not surprised by the announcement of the UN teams “halting” their activities, whatever they may have been.

So, what does this mean  to the rest of the world and more importantly what does it mean to the people of Syria?

Lets look at this decision from a viewpoint that may not be a normal media reaction.

Let’s talk about those who have quietly been supporting Assad and those who have been too afraid to rise up against him,  and this is a large part of the first group I just mentioned.

Every day the lives of these two groups is based upon hope.

The hope that things will get better is the dominant issue with the rise of every morning Sun!

Imagine waking up today and hearing on the news the statement you probably knew was coming?

Now, an optimist would say, “the UN didn’t say they were leaving. They are just holding fast until things  calm down”.

These two groups know what we all know, that is not going to happen anytime soon!

Fear, once again, rules the day coupled with despair  for those who are simply trying to survive in Syria.

Imagine the feeling of knowing  you have to open your store, go to work not because you want to, but because the government Thugs threaten you and your family if you don’t.

Ok, the message I am trying to get across here is one of every increasing despair, not only for the ones fighting to free themselves from Assad, for you see when you are fighting, you have the opportunity to counter despair with your anger and your determination, but when you are just simple working people who only want the world to be somewhat normal while you struggle to provide for you family, there is little to grasp on to.

It is this group the UN announcement impacted the most today!!!

It’s just one more sign of how tragic your life is continuing to become.

I really don’t care, at least not right now, what this announcement means to the political leadership in the West, Russia, China or even the UN.

Right now, today, this message sinks the hearts of those who are so desperately trying to hang on in Syria.

The world has far more good people than evil ones and it is up to the good people of the world to save the good!!!!

The evil are just that evil!!!!

Some can spend their entire life trying to right the wrongs of the world and thank God these people eventually rise to the occasion. 

MB.. THINGS NOT GOING ACCORDING TO THE "PLAN"???

last night I mentioned the MB may not have things going just their way and that could impact their "Master Plans" for the Palestinian Authority and even actions elsewhere in the region.

Well, it became clear today the Egyptian Military was not finished with their long history of calling the shots in Egypt.

I listened to both Shafiq's speech and Mursi's rant... that is exactly what it was!!!!

Some are calling today's court decision a coup, and to the general population it's not too far fetched to believe that is exactly what happened.

I would not place this dramatic announcement in the category of a coup, but I would admit the path chosen today by the Scaf is a dangerous one.

Mursi's tirade was confusing, partially because the translator on Al Jazeera was terrible, but the emotion exhibited by Mursi was undeniable.

Now, does the MB really believe they are going to lose the election this weekend?

I would say they are ready to make the Scaf pay the price if they do not win.

Egypt, as some have predicted, is possibly about to slip back into the crisis of 2011 and the region knows it simply can absorb anymore bad news.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18453721

FATAH AND HAMAS CLOSE AGAIN....SO THEY SAY!! AGAIN!!!

With all the world watching the events in Syria, this issue simply is not getting any traction in the Western media.

For the 300th time, sarcasm inserted, Fatah and Hamas state they are "close" to a unified government.

Right!!

Not much has changed on this front.

Hamas still can't stand Fayyad and Abbas won't work without him.

So, what is changing this time around?

My answer is the Muslim Brotherhood.

Notice how they real decisions on this topic are once again put off until the second round of the Egyptian Presidential Elections?

It's just another sign of who is really calling the shots here...

In the MB Master Plan, the Palestinian Authority will have a unified government and that government will answer to the MB.

The MB problem is the situation in Egypt is not going as easy as they planned.

It's not that they have forgotten about the plan to unify the PA government, it's just that they must solidify their Egyptian issue first.

In the meantime, the Israeli government watches to see what the MB plans for the PA.

Israel knows all too well the end-state for the MB is to have a unified PA government that demands statehood and Jerusalem.

The timetable for this plan is something the MB wants to control and that means getting Hamas and Fatah to do as they are told.

 Not too many people are really holding their collective breath for this " unified" event, but Israel is still formulating what the reaction needs to be if it happens.

If things don't go the way the MB wants them to in Egypt, and I think they could, then all bets are off and the MB will be distracted for sometime to come.

Add to that the now declared Civil War in Syria and the PA unification issue could continue to be nothing more than a typical mirage in the desert. 

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=273730

UN OFFICIAL "SYRIA IN CIVIL WAR"...... NO KIDDING!!!!!

Two nights ago I commented on how ominous it appeared not that reports were getting out that entire units, brigade size units, were defecting!

It didn't take long for some of the UN members, who have a tactical background, to come to the realization that events such as this one would push Syria over the edge.

Having said that, it still had to be a coordinated event for the UN to support their member making such an obvious statement.

If the UN didn't support what their member said, they would have jumped on the airwaves of the media and shut the story down as soon as possible. 

So, what does it mean now that the UN has made such a bold statement?

Here is my spin.

How this plays in the GCC and Turkey is the real issue.

For Turkey to formally hear the UN declare a "Civil War" on Turkeys' border is something to worry about.

How Saudi plays this against the Iranians is the next issue.

What did surprise me was how quickly the US Department of State, Secretary of State, came out with the comment about Russian support to Syria.

If the UN's backing of their members statement was not coordinated with the Secretary of State's comment, and I don't believe it was, it will still be seen as a "coordinated event" in the eyes of Iran, Russia and Syria.

Today was a day of dangerous words and these words will be responded to by all three, Russia, Iran and Syria.

A war of escalating statements is probably coming within the next day at most.

Tomorrow , I will cover what tactically may be about to change in Syria and how that might change the level of the conflict.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201261222721181345.html