OK.. WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF A " CIVIL WAR"?????

Let's look at what's going on in Syria as of today and see if we can figure out why all the so called "experts" believe Syria "may be heading for a Civil War, when it appears to most of the world they are already well into one.

I found this article that basically asked the same question about Iraq back in 2006.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4902708.stm

After thinking about this issue and reviewing what took place in Iraq and what is taking place in Syria, there is one very logical reason why Iraq was never really a "Civil War"...

The Coalition Forces!

It's hard to have a civil war when one side has a collection of highly developed military units on it's side, especially when those forces are from other nations to include a Super Power.. the most powerful Super Power.

So, does this mean without intervention in Syria, Syria is heading for a so called " Civil War"?

Again, in my opinion, they are already there and have been for months.

I'm not sure what the academic talking heads will say, but most of us who have watched a city or a town get bombarded by artillery, attack helicopters and heavy armor, well.. we have a different opinion..

Lets come to terms and lets hope the UN can come to reality....

Syria is in a Civil War and the flames are burning closer and closer to the fuel stored in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and yes... Iran....

I've said this before and I will say it again..

What is the cost of no intervention and what is the cost of intervention?

If we don't figure these two questions out very quickly, they will find their own answers and we will all have to live with the results.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/06/02/Annan-warns-Syria-heading-for-civil-war/UPI-36471338675601/

ANOTHER REAL BAD SIGN FOR ASSAD.

As I start this post tonight, there is news of yet another massacre in Homs!

The finger pointing has already started, but the court of public opinion will come down on Assad, rest assured.

Ok, back to my real discussion tonight.

The attached article speaks to an issue most of us have agreed on would be a reliable sign Assad's support was in real trouble.

It's been known from the beginning the business class, Sunni, members of the capital  has been the major factor in Assad holding on.

The idea of the people who have the most to lose, business and trade, have feared what would come after Assad more than what Assad was doing.

Looking at pictures of virtually piles of dead children and knowing you are backing the person who followers conducted this act, is more than most of the " businessmen" can stand.

Fear still rules the day, but anger and a even greater fear of Assad fall and being left behind labeled as a " supporter" is starting to take it's toll on the real Middle Class of Syria.

Damned if you do and Damned if you don't... that's where they stand and they know it.

As the article states, this closing of the stores is a major challenge to Assad's power.

Kicking down the doors and forcing the stores to open, will only help these fence sitters make up their minds.... Yep.. a real dumb move on Assad's part.

If this second massacre is true, and it looks as if it is, then these business class member of Syria may be pushed over the edge.

Russian and Iranian support is not going to make them open their doors and be seen as supporters of a government that stacks children like firewood.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=272807

PUTIN AND AHMADINEJAD MEETING? WHAT'S THE REAL REASON?

Ok, most of us can buy the concept of these two meeting to talk about Iran's nuclear program, given the next round of talks are in Moscow and we all know the Tsar would love to get the limelight for solving the issue.

The problem is, this is not the most pressing issue for ether of them, at least not right now!

Assad's two biggest supporters are going to meet?

How does anyone think for  minute this meeting will not start with a discussion on Syria?

Iran's nuclear program is important to Iran, but it's not on Putins' top five list and any meeting with the Tsar is about what he wants to talk about first, not the Persians!

So, what might these two say about Assad and the crisis?

Let's look at this question from the Russian viewpoint first.

The court of world opinion is getting worse and worse for Russia over the Syrian issue and several compromises have already been floated past the Russians to see if they may change their support for Assad.

Having "key" players telling the Russians their port capabilities in Syria are not going to go away, to include this message coming from the Free Syrian Council itself, is a important event.

A few  months ago, the Russia made it known they were worried at the strategic level over the possible loss of this facility.

If the world has taken this concern off the table for the Russians, then moving to yet another "concern" would give the appearance of stonewalling.

Moving on to the issue of Russian arms sales to Syria.

When this became Russia additional "concern", it was  somewhat neutralized by most of the world quietly accepting weapons movements based on old, existing contracts signed before the rebellion and centered around weapon systems that not typical of what Syria is using against it's own people.

Short answer, "Ok Russia.. we agree you can continue to make money selling arms.. Now what"?

Then the Russian came up with, in my opinion, their best logical answer for their noncompliance with the UN.

The danger of a larger, regional war.... a sectarian war!

This was their best answer and it should have been their only answer all along!

Having said that, here is the rebuttal they should hear from the UN.

" With your help Mr Putin, we stand a chance of preventing a wider, sectarian conflict, but without your help, it is nearly impossible".

Yes... You have to stoke the Tsar's ego!

Does anyone possibly believe the ex Director of the KGB, and a good one at that, doesn't know how to manipulate other groups?

Does anyone think Putin can't find a way to " strike a deal" with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood?

 He is easily on of the best "Manipulators" the world has seen in the past 50 years.

Now, here is my point!

If we, the world, find a way to get Putin on board, then Putin will have the challenge of putting Iran in it's place.

Will the fanatical Iranian leadership listen to the Tsar... an Infidel?

Probably not!

When Putin offers the Iranians a "deal", it will most likely be a " take it or leave it" event.

If the world can get Putin to change his mind and more importantly his ego, the thing I think is really in the way right now, then "deals" can be made and a full blown disaster may be avoided.

My warning on this approach!

As I stated above and like I have been saying for months now, Iran can't survive without Syria, Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas.

What does Putin offer them to walk away from Assad?

More importantly, what does he offer Iran the rest of the world can live with?

If Iran doesn't "make the deal", then Putin will make a fortune of the regional war!!

Oil at 150 a barrel!!!

This is like asking a Rattle Snake to strike a deal with a Cobra!!

In the end, we will most likely get bit!!!!

http://my.news.yahoo.com/putin-meet-irans-ahmadinejad-china-123121248.html

AN UGLY TOPIC THAT NEEDS TO BE DISCUSSED.

It's fairly common knowledge Syria has one of the more advanced WMD programs in the region.

WMD weapons became a topic in the Libyan crisis, but the media never really caught on to what the issues really could have been.

Syria is an entirely  different story.

Allowing these weapons to fall out of government control, even a government as treacherous as Assad's, is a redline that several nations will not tolerate.

Those who support Assad, Russia, Iran a few others, know all too well there is no guarantee of non intervention if clear signs of concern arises over these weapons.

Now, depending on what happens with Assad,  the event will determine who acts first to eliminate this threat.

If Assad where to open a general warfare front for the sake of saving his rule, something I think he may have hinted to in his speech to his government yesterday, these sights would be some of the first targets hit and hit hard.

The agreement on who would hit them and how will have been worked out; a planning event that has most likely already taken place.

If Assad were to decide, and I hope he knows better, then to try to utilize these weapons with some concept of, " use or lose", then the reaction to Syria would be more violent than most of the world is ready to watch.

Assad knows the rest of the world is worried about his WMD program and he may think this gives him some strategic advantage... reluctance to act against him.

Then again, he is also likely to understand the safety of these weapons is something he must prove to the world or risk intervention regardless of what his supporters say.

It is one thing to own WMD systems... it's another to realize the responsibility.

Finally, it's vital he understands the seriousness of the topic.

He has continued a somewhat fatalistic attitude for months now and this is a topic he cannot afford to underestimate.

If the " Red Line" is crossed, the tragedy that is Syria may turn into a epic crisis.

http://www.jpost.com/Features/InThespotlight/Article.aspx?id=272561

RECKLESS RESPONSE FROM AN UNSTABLE / IRRATIONAL MAN!

When you are dealing with someone who is mentally unstable and an egomaniac to boot, it's not hard to anticipate them screwing something up.

For Nasrallah to respond to the kidnappers of the Lebanese Shia in Syria in the fasion that he did is simply amazing.

" If you have a problem with me, there are many ways  we can solve it and on many levels"!

Spoken like a drunk Redneck in a West Texas Bar!!!!

The simple version of Nasrallah's statement is, You wanna step outside buddy"?

Ok, for a guy who truly believes his own double talk, it is puzzling why he would answer a call for an apology this way, especially when he knows a little bit of Humble Pie, at the least, would paint Hezbollah in a more professional light.

So, what would make his response so reckless and so unprofessional?

Well, read this link from DEBKA and perhaps you have the answer.

http://www.debka.com/article/22051/Syrian-rebels-abduct-5-top-Hizballah-officers-including-Nasrallah%E2%80%99s-nephew

Given the fact this story is from DEBKA, you have to take into consideration the level of sensationalism it may hold.

Never the less, if this story is true, then it may just explain Nasrallah's irrational behavior, than and the fact he is a blow hard nut case.

What is even more wild to consider is the idea of the repercussions of this DEBKA story being factual.

If someone with the level of depth of knowledge of Hezbollah operations such as  Hussein Hamid was really kidnapped, the information goldmine price for him would be huge.

How much do you think the Israelis would pay for him?

What do you think they would be willing to trade?

What would the US or the West be willing to do just to find out what he knows?

One thing Rebel forces are always looking for and this is leverage!

If they had intelligence on the movement of these members, by the way... IDIOTS.. for moving together in the same vehicle....  the asking price would be remarkable.

Perhaps that's why the intelligence was given to them, if it was!

One thing is for sure; if this story is true, Hezbollah is going to have to make some real hard decisions and make them soon.

It's not out the question the violence in Lebanon in the past 24hrs is directly related to this possible event.

The anger inside the Hezbollah camp would be amazing.

One additional event over the past day that has me worried.

Too many key players, the US.. Russia.. the UN all making statements about how close Syria is to total Civil War!

If this DEBKA story is true, then these key players would know it and that might explain their dire predictions...... warnings.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90785

PUTTING HEZBOLLAH ON THE SPOT.  A BRILLIANT MOVE!

Well, as is sometimes the case in the Middle East, the story has changed again and again.

Last week the "Breaking News" was the Lebanese Hostages were " about to be freed!

The line of who was taking credit for the breakthrough was longer than the list of suspects who kidnapped them.

"They will be free shortly.... They will be home today... They are on their way back to Lebanon"... and so on and so on and so on......

It's June and that promise, like so many in that part of  the world, has been broken again and again.

Turning them over without getting anything out of it never really seemed a logical end-state to this event, and it turns out it wasn't.

So what are the Rebels who hold them going to get out of this?

I will be the fist to admit, the final asking price was one not even I would have thought of!

Not money... not a prisoner exchange, at least not yet.... but the perhaps the most damaging thing anyone could have come up with.

To ask Nasrallah to apologize for something he said and to make Hezbollah humiliate themselves in every Middle Eastern media network there is, and they would all cover it, with the exception of Syria and Iran, is a stroke of genius.

Why genius?

Think about what this demand does?

If Nasrallah refuses to make such an apology, then he and Hezbollah must face the Shia families in Lebanon.

The fate of Lebanese Shia, the very people LH is sworn to protect, is in the hands of Nasrallah!

I wonder how long it took his Iranian Masters to call him?

If Nasrallah gives in, then whatever statement he gives, even if it's at 5am in 10 second sound bite, will be heard and replayed a thousand times in the region alone.

Creating a split, no matter how small, between Hezbollah and Iran  is the goal is the end result.

To the rebels, the end state is humiliating LH in Lebanon.

Now, let me end this analysis by stating the obvious.  

A boxed in.... potentially humiliated Hezbollah is a very....very... dangerous animal!

This could end with the classic, "be careful what you ask for", but I must admit, it was a brilliant concept.

Score one for the rebels.... for now!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=272262

IRAN... PLAYING IT JUST AS I THOUGHT THEY WOULD!

The story of Chicken Little is about to apply  to the Middle East.

For over a year now, many of us have warned how out of control the Syrian event could become.

I have said time and time again, Iran cannot accept the loss of Syria, Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah.

These are Red Flag issues that would push Iran into a corner they would have no option but to fight from.

The fall of Assad leads to the fall of the current coalition government in Lebanon, a coalition government that is controlled by Hezbollah.. the Iranian Puppet.

Hamas has been lost to the Muslim Brotherhood and only small factions inside Gaza remain committed to doing the potential bidding of Iran...

The saving grace for Iran in the Hamas issue would be the amount of damage that could still be launched from Gaza.. an event Israel would have to react to neutralize.

The troubles in Iraq I wrote about last night only add to the paranoia building inside Iran.

Nothing is going their way.

Even Azerbaijan is beginning to increase it's resistance to Iranian influence.

So, it must be no surprise to anyone the statements coming out of Iran.

The problem is, for too long people have talked of wars and rumors of wars when it comes to the Persians.

I fear many are simply not listening or have simply adopted the " Chicken Little Syndrome"..

What's important here is the sequence of these announcements.

Larijani knew full well the briefing that was taking place at the UN today.

In the minds of the Iranians, the comments by the US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, were focused directly at the supporters of Assad.

The idea of the US pressuring the UN to realize the time for unarmed, passive observer missions in Syria may be coming to an end is a warning to Iran... at least that is how Iran will have interpreted the statement.

Threatening a regional war is one of the last options the Iranians actually have.

Many may say the price is too high for Iran to take such reckless action, but the moment of truth is closing in on Iran quickly.

I have predicted for months now, Hezbollah is the key to what Iran is willing to do.

If War in the region is the option Iran takes, then Hezbollah will be the key to the initial act.

Making Israel overreact is the key to Iran having any chance of keeping the Arab Muslims on their side of the war and even then it will not work with the GCC / Turkey and Egypt.

Now is the moment is pre -conflict events when Nation States decide to take sides or sit  it out!

Some are often forced into the fight and as such, they  limit their involvement.

The fact of the matter is this.

Iran grows more dangerous by the day....

Options are limited and growing smaller by the day.

As soon as everyone thinks conflict is about to start, it probably will.

I'm not sure what Ambassador's Rice's comments meant to the US people, if they even heard them, but I know what they meant to the Iranian leadership.

I wonder how many phone calls are taking place between Moscow and Tehran?

Oh ya... 85 dollar a barrel oil is bad for the Tsar!!!!

This is a fight he may make a killing off of!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=272093