LEBANON
MOVES CLOSER TO THE EDGE.
Several times in the past few months I have commented on the
danger of Lebanon
slipping into crisis.
As a matter of fact, it was well over a year ago when I
talked about the risk the STL announcement could bring to Lebanon.
It's not worth repeating what happened there in the past few
days, but it is very important to understand why it happened and what it could
lead to.
First the Why:
Why would a Lebanese military checkpoint fire on and kill a
Sunni cleric knowing all to well the tensions that hung over the entire
country?
Well, it hard to tell someone is a Sunni cleric if they are
in a vehicle that is not stopping at a checkpoint... oh ya.. .did anyone notice
the vehicle Alawite was in? A Ranger Rover???
Being a Sunni cleric must pay well!!!!
So, it could be a under trained, uneducated conscript in the
Lebanese military that was assigned to Checkpoint duty had all the risk in the
world of doing something as disastrous as shooting a Sunni cleric... oh and
add.. poorly supervised to the list of screw ups!!
Here is an additional question I've not heard an excuse for
just yet.. but I bet one is out there already....
Why did the cleric and his bodyguard run the checkpoint?
In the Middle East..
running a checkpoint is the US
version of " Death by Cop".... a phenomenon where someone deliberately
sets themselves up to be killed by the Police.
I'm not suggesting, or perhaps I'm not, this cleric would do
something as bold as deliberately getting himself, "martyred " for
the sake of sparking the sectarian flames in Lebanon, but you have to ask, why?
For the sake of time, let's move on and cover the second
part of this topic.
What does it mean to Lebanon?
I'm not convinced this is the proverbial " straw that
broke the Camel's back"... silly cliché I know, for an event in the Middle East, but I had to use it.
The event, if properly managed, may not ignite the flames of
a crisis in Lebanon,
but notice I said " if properly managed".
What I do know is this was not the sanctioned act of
Hizbollah or Iran or Syria.
Lebanon
falling into a full blown crisis is more than Iran can stand right about now.
As I said a few days ago, Iran
needs Lebanon and Hizbollah
for one thing and one thing only... to place a Proxy War between Iran and Israel.
An internal conflict based on a non Israeli threat would be absolutely
disastrous for Iran.
Does anyone stand to gain from this senseless killing?
Yep.. You may have guessed it...... The Muslim Brotherhood.
The question becomes, is the timing right?
Is this what the MB wants right now?
If not, then the whole thing was an idiotic blunder and it
might not ignite Lebanon
into a full crisis.. although many conflicts have started by accident.
Are the Sunni ready for additional conflict in Lebanon?
Is Lebanon
going to be more than just a launching board for operations in Syria?
If the answer becomes yes, then look for Iran to react
and react in a huge way.
If anyone has been looking for a " Red Line" in
the Middle East than this would be it!
Iran will
not stand by and watch Lebanon
fall into full Sunni control as they march on Damascus.
If Iran
was going to start a proxy war in the Middle East,
this scenario would speed up the Iranian timeline dramatically.
The hint of this happening is Hezbollah.
If Hezbollah attacks Jewish targets in the world and Israel knows it was LH, then we will all have
our answer on what Iran is
willing to do to prevent the fall of Assad and Lebanon.
Simply put; if Lebanon begins to fall into crisis,
look for LH to go into action and the whole region will be next.
