LEBANON MOVES CLOSER TO THE EDGE.

Several times in the past few months I have commented on the danger of Lebanon slipping into crisis.

As a matter of fact, it was well over a year ago when I talked about the risk the STL announcement could bring to Lebanon.

It's not worth repeating what happened there in the past few days, but it is very important to understand why it happened and what it could lead to.

First the Why:

Why would a Lebanese military checkpoint fire on and kill a Sunni cleric knowing all to well the tensions that hung over the entire country?

Well, it hard to tell someone is a Sunni cleric if they are in a vehicle that is not stopping at a checkpoint... oh ya.. .did anyone notice the vehicle Alawite was in? A Ranger Rover??? 

Being a Sunni cleric must pay well!!!!

So, it could be a under trained, uneducated conscript in the Lebanese military that was assigned to Checkpoint duty had all the risk in the world of doing something as disastrous as shooting a Sunni cleric... oh and add.. poorly supervised to the list of screw ups!!

Here is an additional question I've not heard an excuse for just yet.. but I bet one is out there already....

Why did the cleric and his bodyguard run the checkpoint?

In the Middle East.. running a checkpoint is the US version of " Death by Cop".... a phenomenon where someone deliberately sets themselves up to be killed by the Police.

I'm not suggesting, or perhaps I'm not, this cleric would do something as bold as deliberately getting himself, "martyred " for the sake of sparking the sectarian flames in Lebanon, but you have to ask, why?

For the sake of time, let's move on and cover the second part of this topic.

What does it mean to Lebanon?

I'm not convinced this is the proverbial " straw that broke the Camel's back"... silly cliché I know, for an event in the Middle East, but I had to use it.

The event, if properly managed, may not ignite the flames of a crisis in Lebanon, but notice I said " if properly managed". 

What I do know is this was not the sanctioned act of Hizbollah or Iran or Syria.

Lebanon falling into a full blown crisis is more than Iran can stand right about now.

As I said a few days ago, Iran needs Lebanon and Hizbollah for one thing and one thing only... to place a Proxy War between Iran and Israel.

An internal conflict based on a non Israeli threat would be absolutely disastrous for Iran.

Does anyone stand to gain from this senseless killing?

Yep.. You may have guessed it...... The Muslim Brotherhood.

The question becomes, is the timing right?

Is this what the MB wants right now?

If not, then the whole thing was an idiotic blunder and it might not ignite Lebanon into a full crisis.. although many conflicts have started by accident.

Are the Sunni ready for additional conflict in Lebanon?

Is Lebanon going to be more than just a launching board for operations in Syria?

If the answer becomes yes, then look for Iran to react and react in a huge way.

If anyone has been looking for a " Red Line" in the Middle East than this would be it!

Iran will not stand by and watch Lebanon fall into full Sunni control as they march on Damascus.

If Iran was going to start a proxy war in the Middle East, this scenario would speed up the Iranian timeline dramatically.

The hint of this happening is Hezbollah.

If Hezbollah attacks Jewish targets in the world and Israel knows it was LH, then we will all have our answer on what Iran is willing to do to prevent the fall of Assad and Lebanon.

Simply put; if Lebanon begins to fall into crisis, look for LH to go into action and the whole region will be next.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/20125212324201596.html

"UNITY GOVERNMENT FOR THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE!! LMAO!!!

Now, I know LMAO, is not a very professional way to post an update on a serous topic such as the Palestinian issue, but really.. yet another, "we swear to meet and talk about it" statement?

If you think the fist story, linked below, has any chance of becoming an actual event, you only need to read the second link from about four days ago.

Hamas and Fatah have what really amounts to a " blood Feud" going on and agreeing to additional " talks" is nothing more than trying to appease  the Muslim Brotherhood as they demand the two stop embarrassing the Palestinian Cause.

But, as is always the case with Blood Feuds in the Middle East, nether side can "let it go"!

You see... It's not about who is right or who is wrong for the Palestinian people; what  they want are jobs, and to feel happy and safe... just like the rest of the word.

To the ego maniacs in Hamas and Fatah, it's about power....money... control... and worst of all... EGO!!!

So many Asses, but only one fits in the chair at a time!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=270768

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18097303

WHO'S IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT???

A lot of "Smoke and Mirrors" going on here.

Is it possible the West is concerned arms flowing to the Syrian Rebels  /

Resistance Fighters / take your pick /  could end up in the hands of pro

radical Islamic forces?

Yes!!

Is it possible these arms movements are being supported by countries such as

Saudi and the GCC?

Yes!

Would this, once again, place the goals of the West / US / in conflict with

the desires of Saudi and other GCC members?

Yes!

Is it possible the Lebanese government is trying to take some of the heat

off of them for the arrest of  Al-Mawlawi, a Sunni leader, by pointing the

finger at the US?

Yes!

Would Hezbollah deliberately inflame Tripoli in order to " take the pressure

off of Syria"?

NO!!

Would Iran think inflaming Lebanon to distract the world from the Syrian

issue would be a sound plan?

NO!!

So, what is going on in Lebanon?

A Civil War, or a version of one, is taking place in Syria and Lebanon, who

is already a house divided, is on the border of that Civil War.

Iran doesn't want a "proxy war" in Lebanon unless it's a conflict with

Israel.

Wasting Hezbollah and Lebanon battlefields on anything other than war with

Israel would be a huge mistake for Iran.

It's not Iran / the Persians / who are moving to turn Lebanon into a "proxy

war".

It's the Sunni..... The Muslim Brotherhood!!

Lebanon is the tactical jump point for operations in Syria.

As the final push to win over Syria comes, Lebanon will move back into Sunni

control.. and that is the Master Plan.

Iran knows this.

We all know this... or we should!

Ok, the million dollar question!!!

Will Pro Qaida forces begin to take action in Lebanon?

YES!!

Look for the IED campaign in Tripoli soon!!!

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=8935

ISRAEL PREPARES FOR IRAN CONFLICT..... AGAIN????

Ok, this story has run perhaps a dozen times in the past ten years and each time it's a modern day version of The Boy Who Cried Wolf!

The problem with that metaphor is the actual ending of the old folk story..

The Wolf really did show up!!!!

Over the past twelve months, I have posted two or three times on the topic of what to look for if Israel was really preparing for a conflict with Iran.

Every time I've addressed this subject, I've ended the conversation with the premise Israel knows all too well what actions may tip it's hand.

Knowing this, the art of cloaking a nation's intentions can become very...very.. complicated.

I won't go back into the discussion of the tactics of " no notice vs scaled vs unlimited options, but it is important to readdress the issue of what option is the most logical.

Simply put, small and fast is easier to conceal from your enemies than large and complex.

Something else has changed since the last time I addressed this issue and it's an extreamly important issue.

Iran's paranoia!!!!!

If we were to go back to the last time the rumor of a pending attack by Israel was published, apx eight months ago, we would have found an Iran that was much more convinced that even was some distance away yet.

The primary reason this logic prevailed at that time was Iran's belief The Israeli government would not move without the support of the US.

It's my opinion, the most drastic change in the theory of pending war between Iran and Israel is Iran's growing belief Israel will attack without the US.

On top of this dire change, I would add the theory Iran may actually be contemplating provoking this conflict to distract the Syrian, Lebanese events.

Short answer... Iran may actually want the conflict to take place.....

The foiled and honestly poorly executed Hezbollah / Qod / operations of a few months ago was a dangerous message that many missed.

I said it then and I will say it again... I believe Iran attempted to goat Israel into attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and that attempt failed.

So, are we truly closer to a conflict between Iran and Israel?

Yes.. I believe we are..

How close???

Someone is going to have to let Benjamin Netanyahu answer that question.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE84G0UC20120517

NOW IT'S ASSAD'S TURN TO "WARN" SOMEONE!

Last night I talked about Turkey's warning to Iran, indirectly, based on concerns over Lebanon and Syria.

Today, it was Assad's turn to warn Lebanon and the GCC and maybe even Turkey.

" If you sow chaos in Syria,  you may be infected by it yourself"!

Assad's correlation of the Arab Spring to someone "Sowing chaos" is a clever way of him creating doubt amongst those in the "other" countries who may worry about their own future.

If it can happen to Syia, it can happen to you!... That is Assad's message.

Some have even interpreted this speech as Assad treating  to send the  same "chaos" to his enemies.

The underling message here may be Iran's actions against the GCC states such as Bahrain.

I am also convinced this is also Assad's way of saying he is willing to continue and most likely increase his actions in his own country.

He played this message at an ideal time.. .on Russian TV.. although his real audience was not the Russian people, but the people of the Gulf Coast.

So, in the past few days, we have witnessed the Saudi's attempt the annexation of Bahrain, something that was not very well thought out and poorly exicuted.

We have seen Turkey warn Iran over it's actions in the region.

Now, we have seen Assad warn the Arab States.

All in all... a lot is taking place at an ever increasing pace and it will become more and more difficult to keep making sense of it all.

In the meantime, AQI will plot the next set of dramatic bombing in Syria. 

Yes... it's is only going to get worse....

If I were the UN Observers, I would be very careful where I go and what road I drive on.

AQI, now in Syria, would love to blow them up and spin the events in Syria right through the roof.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90098

TURKEY'S WARNING ...... TO IRAN!!!

The events of Lebanon over the past few days have not gone unnoticed by Erdogan and Turkey.

His statement of, " whoever views these events through a sectarian window, through an ethnic or ideological window, and whoever adopts an according attitude, is committing a big wrong", is a message to Iran and Hezbollah!

He may have been addressing the issues in Syria, but it's Lebanon that has Erdogan more worried than ever. 

The ability to "control" events in Syria are still somewhat possible although highly unlikely.

What makes the whole problem completely uncontrollable and in reality a catastrophe for the region is violence based on sectarian lines in Lebanon.

What the Shi'ites will find disturbing about this speech is his call for the Shia to be "understanding and compassionate".

If Erdogan sounded one sided in his lecture that's only because he was.

Did we forget he is Sunni?????

The twin bombings in the Syrian capital may have been to focus of his discussion, but the events in Lebanon and the repercussions they could have are giving him a real sense of urgency.

I'm also convinced he knows all too well Iran is probably going to turn up the heat in Bahrain and the Gulf Coast States as much as possible as they try to counter the events in Syria and now Lebanon.

Erdogan may do well to make real peace with the Turkish military and do so soon.

He may need them sooner than he thinks.

It's a hard future when you are pushing Generals into jail cells and then suddenly asked their loyal follower to defend the Turkish leadership.

Sometimes timing is everything!!!

LEBANON AND THE IRANIAN  REACTION.

The news from Lebanon, as predicted, is getting more and more dire!

For months I've commented on the grave consequences for the region if Lebanon where to slide into the Syrian madness.

It now appears that event may be on the verge of taking place.

I could comment about the consequences for nations such as Israel, Turkey ect.. ect.. but it is far more important to readdress the primary issue resulting from these events.

Iran!!!

Again and again I have sounded the alarm about Iran not tolerating the loss of it's proxy

 front for war with Israel.

Miqati is very close to decision time.

Does he stick with the sinking ship named Assad and Hezbollah  or does he begin to move Lebanon away from the madness?

The rumors Iran is now issuing orders to Lebanese Military Commanders are most likely true, and it would be nothing new!!!

He knows Tripoli has always been the canary in the cage for pending trouble in Lebanon and that canary is very sick!!!

So, just how bad is this for the region?

Simple.... it's the one thing nobody wanted to have happen and yet, they all believe it's about to.

So... what does Iran do?

To understand that potential answer, just read the attached story about the GCC.

Saudi understands all to well what Iran will do to attempt to counter the loss of Syria and now, unbelievably, Lebanon..

The GCC understands as well.

Bahrain will become target number one!!!

It's been in the spotlight from time to time, but other more pressing issues have overtaken the media every time.

Early last year, when Iran tried to get Bahrain to become the spotlight issue.... to take pressure off of Assad, Saudi jumped in and made their commitment known to the whole world.

Before Iran could develop the turmoil needed in Bahrain, Syria caught fire and refocused Iranian leadership.

Initially, the GCC set out to shore up their kingdoms fearing the wave of the Arab Spring!

Soon, it became clear to them, the proxy counter by Iran would be along the Gulf States.

Ok.. let's keep this simple!

Lebanon is closer to real violence than at anytime in the past ten years. even worse than 2005 assignations.. .does anyone even remember that event or the current STL issue?

Iran is watching it's worst nightmare come true... the loss of Syria.. the loss of Hamas.. the loss of Lebanon / Hezbollah.

Make no mistake... Hezbollah will redirect all of it's energy to address issues in Lebanon and by doing so, Iran dictatorial relationship will be in jeopardy.

The region is about to become a great deal more dangerous.

Keep you eyes on Lebanon!!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=89972

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=8920