LEBANON AND THE IRANIAN  REACTION.

The news from Lebanon, as predicted, is getting more and more dire!

For months I've commented on the grave consequences for the region if Lebanon where to slide into the Syrian madness.

It now appears that event may be on the verge of taking place.

I could comment about the consequences for nations such as Israel, Turkey ect.. ect.. but it is far more important to readdress the primary issue resulting from these events.

Iran!!!

Again and again I have sounded the alarm about Iran not tolerating the loss of it's proxy

 front for war with Israel.

Miqati is very close to decision time.

Does he stick with the sinking ship named Assad and Hezbollah  or does he begin to move Lebanon away from the madness?

The rumors Iran is now issuing orders to Lebanese Military Commanders are most likely true, and it would be nothing new!!!

He knows Tripoli has always been the canary in the cage for pending trouble in Lebanon and that canary is very sick!!!

So, just how bad is this for the region?

Simple.... it's the one thing nobody wanted to have happen and yet, they all believe it's about to.

So... what does Iran do?

To understand that potential answer, just read the attached story about the GCC.

Saudi understands all to well what Iran will do to attempt to counter the loss of Syria and now, unbelievably, Lebanon..

The GCC understands as well.

Bahrain will become target number one!!!

It's been in the spotlight from time to time, but other more pressing issues have overtaken the media every time.

Early last year, when Iran tried to get Bahrain to become the spotlight issue.... to take pressure off of Assad, Saudi jumped in and made their commitment known to the whole world.

Before Iran could develop the turmoil needed in Bahrain, Syria caught fire and refocused Iranian leadership.

Initially, the GCC set out to shore up their kingdoms fearing the wave of the Arab Spring!

Soon, it became clear to them, the proxy counter by Iran would be along the Gulf States.

Ok.. let's keep this simple!

Lebanon is closer to real violence than at anytime in the past ten years. even worse than 2005 assignations.. .does anyone even remember that event or the current STL issue?

Iran is watching it's worst nightmare come true... the loss of Syria.. the loss of Hamas.. the loss of Lebanon / Hezbollah.

Make no mistake... Hezbollah will redirect all of it's energy to address issues in Lebanon and by doing so, Iran dictatorial relationship will be in jeopardy.

The region is about to become a great deal more dangerous.

Keep you eyes on Lebanon!!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=89972

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=8920

THE EXCHANGE OF LETTERS... WHY THE WASTE OF TIME?

Absolutely no one expect this "stunt", by both sides, to accomplish anything.

Positioning one's self to counter the argument, "you are not trying", was the only real goal of this " exchange".

Netanyahu and Abbas know all too well the Administration in the US is focused on November and simply not interested in creating any additional work such as restarting the Quartet with no chance of a progress.

Europe is in the early stages of truly crisis that they can't buy their way out of this time.

The Arab states, GCC, are simply too nervous over Iran and the struggle for he Gulf region to answer the phone calls from Abbas.

Russia and China simply have nothing to gain by addressing the issue.

So..... it looks as if nothing is going to change soon right????

Maybe!!!

If Israel is actually going to take itself into a conflict with Iran, it would be wise to neutralize, to the extent possible, the Palestinian Statehood issue.

Solving this issue is impossible in the short term, but Israel could start the Information Operations / IO / now to show the world there maybe real light at the end of the tunnel.

That is why the issue of Settlements right now would be a good start to selling this theme.

It's vital to Israel that Iran not be allowed to hold the "high ground" of telling the Arab world they will fight for Palestinian statehood.

Take away the image   of Iran being the "liberators" of the Arabs / Palestinians.. something none of the Arabs believe.. and they will stand alone!

Simply put... If Israel is going to 'deal' with Iran, they must be ready to deal with the statehood issue...and thus take away Iran's link to Arab causes...

If there is one thing the Arabs understand its.... Iran is no Arab... at least not yet!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=269756

NASRALLAH'S ANSWER TO HANIYEH'S ANNOUNCEMENT.

If you think Nasrallah's statement today was unrelated to Narallah's announcement, think again.

If there was one message Iran needed to counter and counter quickly, it was one based on their options growing smaller; such as losing Hamas as a Proxy weapon.

I would be willing to bet  the phone calls from Iran came soon after Haniyeh's comments and they went something like this, " we need you to make a statement about Israel and we need you to make it today"!!!!

There are no coincidences in the Middle East.

So, not only did Nasrallah try to counter the Haniyeh's statement, he tossed in what he probably perceives as a viable threat..... Missile attacks like Israel has never seen before.

Could they do it, perhaps.. for the first day or two... after that Hezbollah and their bases in Lebanon would become smoldering holes in the earth and the heavens would be filled with Martyrs.

A threat such as the one Nasrallah placed today is not new, what could become new is the response Israel may have in the next Hezbollah conflict.

In the end this well timed statement may have made Hezbollah's masters in Iran happy, but to the people of Lebanon, it could very well end up being just another example of why Lebanon needs to purge Hezbollah sooner rather than later.

Nasrallah's warrior mentality, as he sits in his air-conditioned bunker, plays to the Lebanese people just as much as it does to the Iranians.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=269614

HANIYEH'S STATEMENT... WHAT DOES IT MEAN? AGAIN!!

For months, many have talked about the split between Hamas and Iran based upon the resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood; the foundation of Hamas.

Many have pontificated over the issue of Hamas and Fatah failure to "unite".. whatever that means in the Middle East.

It's been clear for sometime now that Hamas was pulling back into the MB camp and the tensions that has created even inside Hamas.

So, if none of this is new information, then why the announcement by Haniyeh now?

My opinion is simple.. as always!

Haniyeh sees the time growing short for Iran and Israel, with conflict not far behind.

He must make every effort, one that will probably be futile, to convince Israel they will not support Iran in a war and thus hopefully avoid the guaranteed destruction of his forces.

The short answer.... Haniyeh thinks Israel is about to act and he is trying to save Hamas!

Did he get the orders from the MB to send this message to the world?

Probably.

I will tell you this, Iran was the first nation to hear  the message  given they already knew it was coming.

As for the continued divide between Hamas and Fatah.. .the MB are and will continue to be hard pressed to solve  this issue.

As I have said in the past, part of this issue is based on pure profit! 

Owning the tunnel system into Gaza is a cash cow for Hamas and sharing the funds and decisions is not something local leadership is willing to do.

Unity between Hamas and Fatah will come with time and it will come when the MB has other issues more pressing off the table.

Here is what everyone needs to  take away from these two statements.

It's one thing for a talking head who is out to make money on book signing circuit to say conflict is imminent.

When someone like the leader of Hamas makes it a point to tell the world they will not support Iran in a conflict, it's time to get very worried.

If Haniyeh believes this, than so does the MB and that is even more ominous.

Here is Haniyeh's and Hamas  biggest obstacle...... Does Israel believe him?

My answer..... How can Israel risk believing him... and he knows it...

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=269509

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=260716

THE WORLD ECONOMY.. SYRIA AND IRAN.

This topic could get far too complex to keep anyone's real attention, so let's see how we can make this  simple.

The First Question:

Will the downturn in Europe's economy and possibly the rest of the free market world lead to Syria and Iran surviving the pressures they are under?

The distraction of economic disruption, one so saver the risk of wide spread violence in countries other than Greece, can easily make key leaders hesitant to commit to additional " problems"; and that is exactly what Syria is to Europe right now.... an additional problem!

If it was hard before the risk of the EU falling apart to deal with the Syrian issue, it is close to impossible now.

The problem is.. Assad and Iran know this!

 The sound of economic turmoil in Europe is music to the ears of Iran's leaders.

Twenty-five percent unemployment... Government's failing to form and pending elections in not only Europe,  but the US as well, only embolden Assad and Iran.

Simply put, the Syrian issue is no longer a " front burner" topic.

The Second Question:

Does this same economic crisis take the heat off of Iran?

No!

Iran would be making a drastic mistake to assume the world is too distracted by the pending second round of economic events.

It's not the "World" Iran needs to worry about!

In reality, the opposite is true for Iran.

An world economic crisis will only show the Israeli leadership they may have to act on their own.

Countries are breaking the "embargo" plan on Iran left and right and the US seems to be writing everyone a " wavier" plan to keep them happy.

This can only mean one thing, the Israeli leadership realizing the embargo concept is not going to work.

Iran may openly think the pain of economic collapse is a well deserved punishment for Europe and the West.

They need to realize an distracted West equates into a desperate and lethal Israel.

So, one man's pleasure.. Syria / Assad / knowing the European economics may help him survive, is another man's pain... Iran see Israel convinced they must act alone.

It's just that simple. 

AHMADINEJAD AS THE "BAD GUY" ONCE AGAIN.

The Persian Nationalist, Ahmadinejad.. AKA.. the Mad Genie.. continues to be the brunt of bad news in Iran.

In a week where his followers continued to take a pounding in elections, a rumor hits the streets about something as sensitive as gasoline prices, a topic that hits to the heart of the average Iranian citizen.

It remains clear the clerical leadership of Iran intends on placing all " bad news' on the shoulders of Ahmadinejad.

As I have referred to several times in the past, the idea of the Fundamentalist making Ahmadinejad the target of blame for all things wrong in Iran is a deliberate  plan that is well thought out.

Given this fact, it comes as no surprise that "rumors" would surface, shortly after the local elections, on how Ahmadinejad is planning to bring pain to the common people.

As I have said before; Ahmadinejad is a Persian Nationalist and that flies in the face of what the Fundamentalist see as the future of Iran.

Internal conflict and the opportunities that might bring the West and  Israel cannot be overlooked.

Again, as I have said in the past, the danger with this "opportunity" is the fact a paranoid and desperate Iran is a dangerous Iran.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=89548

JORDAN??? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Jordan's King Abdullah has been like a firefighter in a wind storm for the past year.

His efforts to keep the lid on "issues" in Jordan have been truly been a daunting task.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood has had it's eye on the countries leadership from the very beginning of the Arab Spring.

Why is this such a potential issue for the West and particularly the U.S?

Simple, the most " off the radar" partner the West and the US have had since the morning of September 11th 2001 has been Jordan.

All parties involved have done a better than average job of keeping this " partnership / alliance / form being too well known.

I can personally state that the West and the US have no better ally in the Middle East than King Abdullah.

He has always understood this relationship was not to his advantage out in the open public and he has worked hared to keep just the right level of quiet balance.

Here is the problem; those that wish to take power in Jordan know just how close this relationship really is.

From day one of the Arab Spring, King Abdullah has been placed in the category of

 " Monarch Friend of the West".

King Abdullah's struggles to keep the lid on the Jordanian public has become an every increasing impossibility.

Stacked on top of this fact is the reality the US could very well chose to abandon him as soon as the first street protest turns truly violent.

He watched Egypt and Libya virtually holding his breath.

He listen and talked to Saudi and the GCC on the topic of the US walking away from long time friendships... Remember the discussions of Jordan joining the GCC?

The King finds himself in a very....very... .dangerous position with little expectation of support from the West.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and other enemies of Jordan... Iran... know all too well the formula for " Abandonment" is based on civilian bloodshed.

The region has two new targets... Jordan and Bahrain.

Not new in the sense of trouble, but new in terms of commitments to cause trouble.

What is truly fascinating is who is set to cause this trouble.

The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood.. the same Brotherhood who is out to bring down the Government in Syria... Sunni..   and Iran.. the government hell bent to keep the government of Syria in power.

Confusing????

Yes!!

That is the Middle East!

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=268726