HOW TO DE-GLORIFY A TERROR CELL?? WELL... MAYBE!!

This story is important and fascinating on several levels.

The skillcraft of being able to discredit a Terror organization is still fairly new in the US and has never been "professionalized" to the level it should be.

Fortunately, some of our Allies overseas have mastered this " sillcraft" and some even have a history of being very proficient  at destabilizing public support... Columbia and the FARC is a very good example.

Now, to give the US somewhat of an alibi, most nations that have become well versed in the art of de-glorifying movements have had the advantage of a controlled press / media environment. This is simply not the case in the US and thus handicaps the potential for being as effective as other Allies.

Thailand is one of the nations that has a long history of being able to change public opinion based on a well thought out Information Operation / I.O. campaign!!!

This event with the Iranian team is a classic example.

Exposing their interaction with prostitutes and alcohol is a very deliberate and most likely factual issue the Thi government fully intends to exploit.

The concept of publishing photos of such allegations is yet another example of, " a picture is worth a thousand words"!

The Thi officials know all too well the impact this I.O campaign can have on the crucial public supported needed for the Terror Groups overall, long term goals.

So, here comes the problem, at least from my perspective.

This " cell" had and has much more in common with typical Special Forces Operations at a military level than with any fundamentalist movement.

The concept of "discrediting" can be highly effective against standard fundamentalist movements, but that is not what this team was.

The Thi government has applied the wrong tool to the problem at hand.

This team was, like the others that are out there.. and that is the real story... is a tactical operation designed to have strategic impact on the Nation State of Israel.

The Iranian Hezbollah, Qod, fingerprints are all over the event and Israel knows it.

As important as this event was, the real message is not lost on Israel or the US.

Iran has stepped up the game and you can bank on the fact other teams are in place and ready to execute missions upon orders.

So, sorry Thi government.... the idea of Special Forces guys hanging out with Hookers and alcohol.....well..... that's almost a requirement to become an SF member!!!!

That's not to say the Qod Force Commander will not be happy with the news, but the mission is far more important that a few small teams.

PS.. the folks they are looking for fits perfectly into the model of a Hezbollah / Qod / cell.

Lets see what Israel does to prevent the next attack!!

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/02/17/thai-police-2-more-suspects-in-terror-case/

KHADER ADNAN'S HUNGER STRIKE AND WHAT IT MEANS.

In a typical year for the Middle East, this event would probably  not rise to the level of international attention, but these are far from " normal" times in the Middle East.

Now, this is not the first time Israeli authorities have encountered hunger strike tactics, never the less, they understand how easily this particular event could get out of hand.

What is important to remember about this event is who is willing to allow it to escalate and who may feel the timing is all wrong for any event to overtake current events.

Islamic Jihad groups that are outside the control of the Muslim Brotherhood appear to see the status of Adnan as a potential flashpoint ripe for exploitation.

The Iranians assess the Islamic Jihad's focus on this issue as an opportunity for distraction from the Syrian crisis.

That doesn't mean Iran and Islamic Jihad in Palestine are sharing ideas, although , " the enemy of my enemy is my friend" , concept is never far from day to day reality in the Middle East.

So, to keep it simple.... Iran see this Adnan's hunger strike as a potential opportunity as does Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

The Muslim Brotherhood has a master plan underway and this hunger strike issue threatens to get out of control and thus threatens to disrupt the MB's " Master Plan".

Israel must be careful and not over react, yet they cannot afford to have anything happen to Adnan; unless of course the Israelis have figured out a way to manipulate the event to their advantage.

So you see... a simple hunger strike... like thousands in the past.. is no longer a " simple" event!! 

Just one more issue that needs to be watched carefully.

When the entire area is doused in fuel and sparks are flying everywhere.. it's impossible to  believe there will be no fire!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/02/201221842847443790.html

THIS IS  A REPOST OF THE LAST STORY I POSTED.


When I posted this story the other day, I did not cut and paste the whole article. 
This is the complete post.

A few things about these recent attacks need to be addressed.

1.  It's not just the opinion of the US as to the likelihood of these
attacks being coordinated that is important.

I would argue that in a time of heightened paranoia on the part of
Iran and Israel, the real concern here should be what Israel believes.

Some will speculate Israel is looking for an excuse to take action
against Iran or Hezbollah and some would argue that Iran may wish this as
well.

Two nations looking for a fight can blunder into an event with
little logic.

2.  The classic, " A picture is worth a thousand words", applies to the
video released by the government of Thailand today.

Those two young Iranian men where not just local knuckle heads!!

The physical conditioning, the way they wore the extremely heavy
backpacks and the confidence in their walk does not resemble a mentally ill
individual, who would "Lone Wolf"  an attack.. oh ya... two guys
does not constitute a " Lone Wolf"!!


Is it possible Iran is attempting to push Israel into an altercation?

Let me answer that by making a statement.

Iran cannot save Syria by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Hamas by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Lebanon and Hezbollah by initiating an
attack on Israel.

Iran has no chance of gaining any support in the region or the world for
that matter, if it goes on the offensive; regardless of sanctions or their
impact on Iran!

For Iran to utilize Hezbollah operatives to attack Israeli key leaders;
remember who died four years ago, might be the only way they can insure an
Israeli response that would show Iran as the victim.

Hezbollah operations in Lebanon being pounded  by the IDF ,allows Iran to
react from the side of " savior" not as aggressor.

Is Syria and Hamas and Hezbollah worth this risk to Iran?

How could it not be?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2012/02/201221555522250455.html

SO WHAT IS IRAN UP TO

THE POST ARE HARD TO DO FROM 30 000 ft!!! On an iphone

A few things about these recent attacks need to be addressed.

1.  It's not just the opinion of the US as to the likelihood of these
attacks being coordinated that is important.

   I would argue that in a time of heightened paranoia on the part of
Iran and Israel, the real concern here should be what Israel believes.

   Some will speculate Israel is looking for an excuse to take action
against Iran or Hezbollah and some would argue that Iran may wish this as
well.

   Two nations looking for a fight can blunder into an event with
little logic.

2.  The classic, " A picture is worth a thousand words", applies to the
video released by the government of Thailand today.

   Those two young Iranian men where not just local knuckle heads!!

   The physical conditioning, the way they wore the extremely heavy
backpacks and the confidence in their walk does not resemble a mentally ill
individual, who    would "Lone Wolf"  an attack.. oh ya... two guys
does not constitute a " Lone Wolf"!!


Is it possible Iran is attempting to push Israel into an altercation?

Let me answer that by making a statement.

Iran cannot save Syria by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Hamas by initiating an attack on Israel.

Iran cannot save its reliance on Lebanon and Hezbollah by initiating an
attack on Israel.

)

A SPLIT IN HAMAS??

For several months now, some have argued the possibility of a split in Hamas over the reconciliation with Fatah was a just a show, but all indications are now pointing to a real issue inside the Hamas camp.

 Side Note:   Once again, Qatar is right in the middle of the interaction as

it continues to increase its status in the Middle East.

Khaled Meshal and Haniyeh  would not let the public know they were meeting to discuss the disagreement in the Hamas camp if they didn't want to.

These men are specialist at not letting the public know where they are and what they are talking about.

For this meeting to be out in the open, is a good indicator just how much Hamas leadership is troubled by this split.

Meshal and Abbas have hitched their horse to the Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt.

Mahmoud Al-Zahar and his faction of Hamas are still holding on to the Iranian supported operation.

One of the real issues here is purely a extension of Arab organized crime in nature.

Mahmoud Al- Zahar's group has a good thing going in Gaza and the money that is made on smuggling has allowed he and his supporters to live the good life!

If this "Reconciliation" deal goes through, the " new" leaders in Gaza will take away the honey hole!!!

Yep.. it's not always about religion or political ideology... most often it's based on good old fashion corruption and greed..

Two traits that are looked at as true skill crafts in the Middle East.

If the "buyout" for Al-Zahar is good, then Iran will lose its last foothold in Gaza.

Take a guess at what the Iranian counter offer might be?

What I find fascinating, is the Israeli reaction to the whole issue of "

Reconciliation".

A Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood movement.. after the demise of the hated and labeled Hamas / Fatah movements, is something Israel is really worried about.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85794

THE LIMITATIONS OF SYRIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS:

I promised a few friends I would talk to the issue of the Syrian military and it's  tactical / strategic limitations.

I will also attempt to address the possible second order effects of these limitations and how the Resistance might be able to take advantage of the issues.

Lets start by saying any military is only as good as it's will to follow it's leadership.

The most advanced and deadly force in the world is powerless to defend the nation it serves if the nations leadership is not worthy of following.

Regardless of why or how an internal conflict starts, when a professional force is utilized to attack and kill it's own people, that force is bound to be taken to the brink of destruction.

What has become obvious in Syria is the necessity for the Resistance to break the will of the Syrian Military; thus taking away it's ability to  attack and murder it's own people.

Defeating the Syrian Military cannot be the goal of the FSA or the Resistance political groups.

Defeating the support of the members who make up the Syrian Military is the key.

Many of the Resistance members have understood this from the very beginning and as such realized the psychological  impact of defections being shown to the world.

Getting the defecting members on a  media network  was and is vital to the movement.

Getting senior members of the military and the Syrian government to state in a logical and professional manner why they left and why Al Assad's government must end is a pillar of wining the conflict.

As much effort must be placed on this process as is being placed on procuring weapons, if not more!

In the end, if Al Assad and his family are the only owners of massive amounts of equipment that is no longer manned ....... if the humans that made up the formidable Syrian Military are all but gone.. then Al Assad and his followers will be finished.

Now; in the meantime the Resistance must continue to fight for their survival and they must be seen as professional at all cost.

Being successful against a superior force is achievable, but doing so while maintaining  a professional, " Just" appearance is vital to the movement.

Lets look at some of the tactical issues that must be leveraged in order to break the will of the Syrian military.

Classic Hit and Run tactics are already a basic theme of the SFA, but the process must continue to improve.

Ironically, the Syrian Military was not designed, equipped or trained to conduct Asymmetric, Urban, Guerilla Warfare.

The Syrian military was developed to combat a  "Force on Force" operation; such as Syria would encounter in a conflict with Israel.

Nation State warfare is not what the Syrian Military has been or is currently facing and that is a major reason why they are not only unable to maintain momentum, but are losing badly in the public information war; again.. make no doubt.. the public information campaign is vital to the downfall of Al Assad.

When the Syrian military overreacts, and shells cities with field artillery units.. when they use Tanks to fire into apartment buildings.. they are falling back on the only true training their forces know... common kinetic operations.

Their problem, and they know it as well as the Iranians do, is the Resistance fighters can simply melt away into the surroundings and live to fight another day.

When the Syrian military spends four days pounding a city with indirect fire and the only casualties shown on TV are Children and innocent civilians, they are losing the war!

It's a classic example of, " You may win the battle, but lose the war"!!!!

Fighting an enemy that simply chooses to leave the battlefield never ends well for the aggressor.

General warfare Vs Guerilla warfare.. it is a well documented concept that many senior military leaders  and political leaders fall back on time and time again.

Taking ground to only give it back may seem senseless, but in the art of wearing down an enemy, thus breaking their spirits....... it's a brilliant tactic.

Guerilla warfare needs a baseline concept to maintain it's operational success.

The members must never compromise their professional, " Just" appearance.

Put simply.... do not kill just for the sake of killing.... do not murder in the name of revenge ... do not take revenge on the innocent.

Set standards for conduct and let the world know what standards you live by.

Last but not least... show compassion when known is expected, and let that compassion

( YOUTUBE) be seen by all. LIVE BY IT!!

Let me end by talking about a few tactical issues I'm not sure the Resistance movement is utilizing.

1.. Keep you enemies from getting sound sleep for more than just a few hours.

            A. Harassment is key to psychological fatigue. Simple.. .fast .. loud harassment.  

            B.  No Peace!!!  No days off

            C.  If your enemy is rotating units to give them time to refresh both mentally and equipment wise, find       those units and attack them.. Attack them where they rest..

2.  Train special units that can travel from city to city who are good at fighting at night.

            ( The Syrian Military is totally inept at night fighting.)

            A.  Equip them to fight at night.. train them or get them trained to fight at night.

            B.   Attack key sites at night.. late at night.. pre dawn... Fast.. in and out..

            C.   Use indirect fire such as rockets or mortars or heavy machineguns

            D.  Again.. be fast .. and be GONE! know where to hide and stay there until you move again.. and        know where the unit is going next.. prep the location.. not the movement.

            E.  Do not let these units " gloat".. No YOUTUBE.. NO  BLOGGS..

            F.  Let the reputation of these units build based upon the nightmares of it's enemies.

            G.  Let the word leak out these units exist in far greater numbers than actually exist.

FEAR... HOPELESSNESS.. These weapons are far more powerful than anything another country can sell or provide the Resistance in Syria.

I will come back to this topic of fighting, but there is much to talk about soon and some of it doesn't involve Syria.

ANOTHER PIECE TO THE PUZZLE!

Yesterday I commented we needed to see what additional speeches came our of Iran before we had the chance to possibly figure out what was taking place.

Well, the attached story may not be the whole answer, but it does provide another clue as to what direction Iran is worried about or heading towards.

Yesterday, Haniyeh  was seen in public with Ahmadinejad and the picture of a unified front was the objective.

On Sunday, Khamenei gave Haniyeh the real warning.

Don't follow the path or take the orders of the Muslim Brotherhood!

Tall orders considering the origin of Hamas is completely imbedded with the Sunni MB.

Make no mistake and don't listen to anyone who says otherwise; Khamenei's message is clear.

It's the Iranian version of, " You are ether with us or against us"!

For months the MB has strived to pull Hamas away from Iran and part of that process is for Hamas to make peace with Fatah.

Hamas and Fatah meeting in Cairo for "reconciliation" talks was a message to Iran.

Khamenei knows the time is near that Iran must ether count on Hamas support or accept the fact they have slipped back into the Sunni / MB camp.

Nothing sparks more anger in the Middle East than being duped and Iran rebuilding Hamas' military and terrorist teams only to see Hamas break away is the just about the worst case of being duped!!!!

So, this Hamas part of the puzzle becomes, perhaps, a little more clear!

Now the deciphering of the Hezbollah statement about not marching to the drums of Iran becomes even more important.

It is clear the friends list of Al Assad is shrinking and even the Russians are starting to realize the price they may pay in the Arab world for backing the Shia Al Assad killing machine.

As I have said before, if Hezbollah see the survival of their movement being dragged down by it's support to Al Assad, then the allegiance may come to a sudden end.

In the past two days the clashes between Sunni and Shia inside Lebanon has increased.

Although this is nothing new, it comes at a very bad time for Hezbollah.

Is it a sign of the Lebanese resistance to Hezbollah?

Is Hezbollah's future truly with the Persians or is the Hamas / Fatah model something they may need to look into?

Iran's problems continue to grow.