THE LIMITATIONS OF SYRIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS:

I promised a few friends I would talk to the issue of the Syrian military and it's  tactical / strategic limitations.

I will also attempt to address the possible second order effects of these limitations and how the Resistance might be able to take advantage of the issues.

Lets start by saying any military is only as good as it's will to follow it's leadership.

The most advanced and deadly force in the world is powerless to defend the nation it serves if the nations leadership is not worthy of following.

Regardless of why or how an internal conflict starts, when a professional force is utilized to attack and kill it's own people, that force is bound to be taken to the brink of destruction.

What has become obvious in Syria is the necessity for the Resistance to break the will of the Syrian Military; thus taking away it's ability to  attack and murder it's own people.

Defeating the Syrian Military cannot be the goal of the FSA or the Resistance political groups.

Defeating the support of the members who make up the Syrian Military is the key.

Many of the Resistance members have understood this from the very beginning and as such realized the psychological  impact of defections being shown to the world.

Getting the defecting members on a  media network  was and is vital to the movement.

Getting senior members of the military and the Syrian government to state in a logical and professional manner why they left and why Al Assad's government must end is a pillar of wining the conflict.

As much effort must be placed on this process as is being placed on procuring weapons, if not more!

In the end, if Al Assad and his family are the only owners of massive amounts of equipment that is no longer manned ....... if the humans that made up the formidable Syrian Military are all but gone.. then Al Assad and his followers will be finished.

Now; in the meantime the Resistance must continue to fight for their survival and they must be seen as professional at all cost.

Being successful against a superior force is achievable, but doing so while maintaining  a professional, " Just" appearance is vital to the movement.

Lets look at some of the tactical issues that must be leveraged in order to break the will of the Syrian military.

Classic Hit and Run tactics are already a basic theme of the SFA, but the process must continue to improve.

Ironically, the Syrian Military was not designed, equipped or trained to conduct Asymmetric, Urban, Guerilla Warfare.

The Syrian military was developed to combat a  "Force on Force" operation; such as Syria would encounter in a conflict with Israel.

Nation State warfare is not what the Syrian Military has been or is currently facing and that is a major reason why they are not only unable to maintain momentum, but are losing badly in the public information war; again.. make no doubt.. the public information campaign is vital to the downfall of Al Assad.

When the Syrian military overreacts, and shells cities with field artillery units.. when they use Tanks to fire into apartment buildings.. they are falling back on the only true training their forces know... common kinetic operations.

Their problem, and they know it as well as the Iranians do, is the Resistance fighters can simply melt away into the surroundings and live to fight another day.

When the Syrian military spends four days pounding a city with indirect fire and the only casualties shown on TV are Children and innocent civilians, they are losing the war!

It's a classic example of, " You may win the battle, but lose the war"!!!!

Fighting an enemy that simply chooses to leave the battlefield never ends well for the aggressor.

General warfare Vs Guerilla warfare.. it is a well documented concept that many senior military leaders  and political leaders fall back on time and time again.

Taking ground to only give it back may seem senseless, but in the art of wearing down an enemy, thus breaking their spirits....... it's a brilliant tactic.

Guerilla warfare needs a baseline concept to maintain it's operational success.

The members must never compromise their professional, " Just" appearance.

Put simply.... do not kill just for the sake of killing.... do not murder in the name of revenge ... do not take revenge on the innocent.

Set standards for conduct and let the world know what standards you live by.

Last but not least... show compassion when known is expected, and let that compassion

( YOUTUBE) be seen by all. LIVE BY IT!!

Let me end by talking about a few tactical issues I'm not sure the Resistance movement is utilizing.

1.. Keep you enemies from getting sound sleep for more than just a few hours.

            A. Harassment is key to psychological fatigue. Simple.. .fast .. loud harassment.  

            B.  No Peace!!!  No days off

            C.  If your enemy is rotating units to give them time to refresh both mentally and equipment wise, find       those units and attack them.. Attack them where they rest..

2.  Train special units that can travel from city to city who are good at fighting at night.

            ( The Syrian Military is totally inept at night fighting.)

            A.  Equip them to fight at night.. train them or get them trained to fight at night.

            B.   Attack key sites at night.. late at night.. pre dawn... Fast.. in and out..

            C.   Use indirect fire such as rockets or mortars or heavy machineguns

            D.  Again.. be fast .. and be GONE! know where to hide and stay there until you move again.. and        know where the unit is going next.. prep the location.. not the movement.

            E.  Do not let these units " gloat".. No YOUTUBE.. NO  BLOGGS..

            F.  Let the reputation of these units build based upon the nightmares of it's enemies.

            G.  Let the word leak out these units exist in far greater numbers than actually exist.

FEAR... HOPELESSNESS.. These weapons are far more powerful than anything another country can sell or provide the Resistance in Syria.

I will come back to this topic of fighting, but there is much to talk about soon and some of it doesn't involve Syria.

ANOTHER PIECE TO THE PUZZLE!

Yesterday I commented we needed to see what additional speeches came our of Iran before we had the chance to possibly figure out what was taking place.

Well, the attached story may not be the whole answer, but it does provide another clue as to what direction Iran is worried about or heading towards.

Yesterday, Haniyeh  was seen in public with Ahmadinejad and the picture of a unified front was the objective.

On Sunday, Khamenei gave Haniyeh the real warning.

Don't follow the path or take the orders of the Muslim Brotherhood!

Tall orders considering the origin of Hamas is completely imbedded with the Sunni MB.

Make no mistake and don't listen to anyone who says otherwise; Khamenei's message is clear.

It's the Iranian version of, " You are ether with us or against us"!

For months the MB has strived to pull Hamas away from Iran and part of that process is for Hamas to make peace with Fatah.

Hamas and Fatah meeting in Cairo for "reconciliation" talks was a message to Iran.

Khamenei knows the time is near that Iran must ether count on Hamas support or accept the fact they have slipped back into the Sunni / MB camp.

Nothing sparks more anger in the Middle East than being duped and Iran rebuilding Hamas' military and terrorist teams only to see Hamas break away is the just about the worst case of being duped!!!!

So, this Hamas part of the puzzle becomes, perhaps, a little more clear!

Now the deciphering of the Hezbollah statement about not marching to the drums of Iran becomes even more important.

It is clear the friends list of Al Assad is shrinking and even the Russians are starting to realize the price they may pay in the Arab world for backing the Shia Al Assad killing machine.

As I have said before, if Hezbollah see the survival of their movement being dragged down by it's support to Al Assad, then the allegiance may come to a sudden end.

In the past two days the clashes between Sunni and Shia inside Lebanon has increased.

Although this is nothing new, it comes at a very bad time for Hezbollah.

Is it a sign of the Lebanese resistance to Hezbollah?

Is Hezbollah's future truly with the Persians or is the Hamas / Fatah model something they may need to look into?

Iran's problems continue to grow.

AHMADINEJAD BIG ANOUNCEMENT ???

Ok, a couple of interesting issues with this speech of a pending, " big announcement" in the next few days and to interesting side notes about Hezbollah and Hamas.

First off, on the surface it seems logical Ahmadinejad would make such a bold statement on the anniversary of the ouster  of the Shah; notice I didn't say,  anniversary of the Islamic revolution because that is not what it was.

Some may wonder why Ahmadinejad would be given the opportunity to reinforce his position given he has been summed to account for his actions by the Iranian parliament.

If Khamenei wants Ahmadinejad minimize, then why allow him to take credit for such a pending " Big Anouncement"?

Perhaps Khamenei didn't sanction Ahmadinejad making such a bold statement?

My opinion is Khamenei did sanction the stunt and here is why I believe this to be true.

A picture is worth a thousand words and look who is in the picture with Ahmadinejad... Haniyeh!!!

Why would Khamenei permit Ahmadinejad the clout of being seen as the rep to Hamas if Ahmadinejad was on the outs with Khamenei?

Why give him the prestige when his prestige and power is what Khamenei is reportably  worried about?

Next, lets look at the statement made by Nasrallah, Hezbollah's mouthpiece!

A comment about not doing just what Iran tells them to do if Israel attacks Iran is interesting.

He basically states Hezbollah will  do what is right for Hezbollah and Lebanon; they still act as if they own Lebanon,

Now, in the never ending world of " words inside of words" for the Arab world, this is an interesting message at the same time Hamas is visiting Iran.

Where the two comments by Hamas and Hezbollah coordinated?

You would be a fool to not think so.

So, as you can see, the conversations and rhetoric continues to grow in intensity and pace.

What is Iran about to announce and why would a leader who is reported to be on the " outs" with the Ayatollah Khamenei be allowed to have the glory of a nuclear announcement?

Why would Hezbollah and Hamas give what appears, on the surface, to be somewhat confusing messages?

Yes.. the Middle East continues to be a very complex situation and it seems the complexity is getting worse.

Lets see what the announcement is and see if that gives us a clue as to what the next move may be.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=256899

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85652

TURKEY LOOKING OUT FOR TURKEY.

This "Three Stage Strategy" Davutoglu talks of  is a little confusing.

I find it interesting how he paints a picture of Turkey leading the way for the Arab League's approach to the UN.

I'm not convinced the Arab League really did anything close to consulting with Turkey before heading to the UN, but it does make Turkey look important; perceptions... considering he was addressing a college student body.

His announcement of new consultations with the AL and then a follow on with the US Secretary of State, again paints the picture of Turkey taking a leading role in the Syrian crisis and in fact they probably are and should be.

My problem is, it seems the Turks are more interested in showing the world they are a regional leader, much like the AL tried desperately tried to do, than they are concerned about the people in Syria.

Davutoglu's real information theme of " Turkey is the new leader", is enforced by the somewhat confusing transition to the topic of  old Cold War structures for the region.

Besides a possible swipe at Russia and China, but mostly Russia, for the veto vote, he again sets out to show how the future for the region is an issue for Turkey to impact and not the Cold War powerhouses.  Classic ..  " Be careful what you ask for"!

It's also interesting that he attempts to make the point the issues of the region are not sectarian; " new dynamic powers of the society".

I'm not sure what the "new dynamic powers of the society means?  ( Words inside the words again.. Talking more like an Arab than a Ottoman..  )

One thing is certain, the events of Syria are proving to be a monumental test of Turkey's new "we can lead" mentality for the region.

Syria's crisis proved far more than the AL could handle, thus forcing the Arabs back into the world they know best... backdoor deals and denying overt involvement.

The AL learned you cannot inter the Major Leagues by trying to show up at the World Series.

As Turkey continues to struggle with the Syrian event, it will become more and more obvious to Turkish leaders that when you strive to be a leader, words are often simply not enough. 

Sacrifice is a cornerstone of leadership!

What is Turkey willing to sacrifice?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85611

SANCTIONS  AND THE  TURK'S  VIEWPOINT

Turkey's message to the UN is worthy of real review by the West.

Far too often the concept of sanctions and embargos become the quick and easy response by leaders who have no stomach for conflict.

What makes this concept even more complex is the reality that sanctions often have the opposite impact they were intended to produce.

The Turk's point that sanctions will only hurt the ones that they are intended to help is a valid statement.

The Turks are also correct in their estimate of the Syrian Middle Class fearing what comes after Al Assad.

So, if Turkey is correct and sanctions are not the right option for Syria, then what is?

Sitting back and waiting for the next worthless Arab League meeting, even if it does have UN participation, will not stop the rockets from raining in on the resistance.

Blaming Russia and China for vetoing the UN resolution, one that would have had no real impact on Al Assad, will not stop the violence.

By the way; Putin's interest in the events in Syria have nothing to do with the welfare of the Syrian people.

Syria is just another opportunity for Putin to show the West, the US, that Russia must be consulted on worldly issues.

Rumors of Turkey establishing a " safe zone" in Syria are still nothing more than rumors!

The Arab League calling for a " Peace Keeping" force going into Syria is code for " let someone else go into Syria and we will pay for it".

Personally I would love to see any one of the GCC states attempt to deploy a " Peace Keeping Force" outside of the GCC... That would be a first!!!

If Turkey has a point about sanctions, and I believe they do to some extent, then what is it that Turkey proposes be done?

If the Ottomans want to be leaders in the region, then now is the time to lead.

Talking is not leading...

The GCC found out how hard it is to become a leader.

What will Turkey do?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=85595

FETWA FROM THE SUNNI SCHOLARS.. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

 I found this article in an Arab newspaper this morning.

This Act  is key to defections in the Syrian military.

The act of Sunni scholars issuing on open fetwa against Al Assad, will allow the flood gates of  defections in the regular ranks, more than they already are, and more importantly, key leadership positions inside the Al Assad government.

This is terrible news for the Iranian leadership and they must be hard at work figuring out a way to react.

How Iran reacts to this announcement is critical.

They cannot blame the declaration  on Western influence and they know it.

They might place the blame on Saudi or other Arab states, but that will not impact the results on the Sunni population of Syria.

Guidence to Al Assad on the issue must be well thought out.

Iran's reaction to this event could very well solidify the growing fear of a  sectarian war in Syria.

Islamic scholars issue fetwa against Syria's Assad They said that being subject to al-Assad regime was unacceptable and people should give up being loyal to al-Assad regime.

Islamic scholars defined on Tuesday killings of Syrian people as

unacceptable.

Around 107 Islamic scholars released a declaration on Tuesday evening. They

said that being subject to al-Assad regime was unacceptable and people should

give up being loyal to al-Assad regime.

The scholars including Dr. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the head of International Union

of Muslim Scholars, Saudi intellectual Salman al-Ouda and Egyptian mufti Dr.

Ali Juma, sent their declaration to Anadolu Agency (AA).

In the declaration, the intellectuals said free Syrian army and

revolutionists should be supported, embassies should withdraw from Syria, and

countries should send protest messages to Russia and China as they were

backing the Syrian administration.

Islamic scholars said bloodshed and massacre in Syria could not be forgotten,

and developments in Syria were a shame for those who remained indifferent and

silent to what was going on and as well as those who were a part of the

developments.

The declaration said massacre of people by the army and security forces was

unacceptable, and army and security forces should object to the order to kill

people.

In the declaration, the intellectuals backed people, who wanted to leave the

army, and welcomed their participation in the Free Syrian Army.

The intellectuals said Free Syrian Army should stay away from revenge and

protect civilian people.

The declaration said committees should be set up across Syria to support the

revolution initiative, adding that such committees should also be established

in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon in order to provide Syrian people with food and

other humanitarian aid.

AHMADINEJAD AND KHAMENEI CLASH AGAIN. WHY NOW?

Glad to be back.. Was out most of last week with an illness in the family.

It's interesting to see the issue of Ahmadinejad being called to answer questions in front of the Iranian Parliament rising back to the forefront of Iranian politics, especially now.

With the events in Syria being as they are and the rhetoric coming out of Israel almost on a daily basses now, one has to wonder why this topic would come up now.

I have speculated that both Ahmadinejad and Khamenei may be looking at options of surviving an Arab Spring event in Iran, and doing so by blaming the other for the countries woes.

The speculations on just how much of an impact the sanctions are having in Iran are receiving mixed reviews.

Some say Iran is sanction proof given China and India's desire for oil, yet others comment constantly on the day to day challenges of life in Iran.

I'm not sold on the sanction impact theory, but I am more and more convinced both Iranian leaders are looking to the future and don't see the other in the crystal ball.  

Two egomaniacs in one country is not a recipe for success.

So, I go back to the original question; why now?

The future of Syria is in serious doubt and a non unified front from Iran is not the answer to the problem.

The Qod and Hezbollah have been the backdoor helpers to Al Assad in Syria and that means Ahmadinejad has had less of a role in the process than the West thinks.

Could Khamenei be setting Ahmadinejad up as the fall guy for losing Syria?

I don't think so.

The more I think about this announcement, the more I must confess how I'm puzzled by it.

I will watch what comes of this announcement of the next few days and how the Arab states spin the issue.

That might give me a clues as to what is really going on.

It's worth paying attention to!!!!

Something is up in Iran..

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2012/02/20122722326300746.html