WHY ARE THE SYRIAN RESISTANCE FIGHTERS HOLDING GROUND?

The reports of Douma being partially held by the resistance fighters, along with other "strongholds", needs to be studied carefully.

Does Al Assad own  the military force to crush these resistance pockets?

Absolutely.... well.. it depends on how we define " own".

As has been the case throughout history, a Leader's power is based upon the loyalty of the people he or she leads!

A vast majority of Syrian's military is Sunni and this has been Al Assad's problem from the beginning of events in Syria.

Owning the equipment that can overwhelm a inferior enemy is not in question.

Having the people assigned to those units who will carry out such orders continues to be Al Assad's weak link.

From the very beginning of the uprising, he and his Brother understood the importance of not forcing Sunni majority units  to attack Sunni majority towns.

His problem has become, a larger proportion of the Sunni population inside the military is no longer willing to take orders.

In fact, the numbers of defections is growing at an alarming level... alarming for Al Assad that is.

As I have stated before, the type of limited operations Al Assad must execute, not utilizing fixed wing and ballistic weapons, has limited the impact his forces can have on entrenched locations.

Remember the rule of combat... it takes a ratio  of  4 to 1... four assault troops for ever defender, to win a fixed engagement.

This rule is changed if air power is incorporated, but Al Assad can't take that step... at least not yet.

A few key things to watch for that may indicate he is finally contemplating a true Civil War.... thus utilizing all assets at his disposal.  ( Some we don't even want to think about.)

1.   The world media, to include the " You Tube" reporters, giving the perception the resistance is actually taking ground and holding it. 

The Attached articles speak to that.

2.  If the Syrian military dissertation numbers continue to grow to the point that  organic units turn on Syria.

3.  China and Russia beginning  to hint they may side with a non NATO lead, UN resolution for Peace Keeping Operations.  I think we are a ways off from that, but China and Russia will be hard pressed to resist the Arab League if they head to the UN for help.... something they are about to do.

Finally and probably, in my opinion the biggest indicator Al Assad may not hold back, if Senior Syrian Commanders and supporting political members jump ship.

 At that point in time,we will  have to wonder who would be commanding the Syrian special units?

 Look for the Iranian Quds, behind the scene control. 

The outcry for a ' No Fly Zone' will take on a whole new meaning if Al Assad begins to employ all of his assets. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9042615/Syrian-security-forces-launch-all-out-assault-on-Douma.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16753500

SANCTIONS..... WHAT DO THEY REALLY DO?

The attached articles address two interesting schools of thought.

The idea that Iran can be forced into compliance with sanctions is based upon two assumptions.

1.  The governments of the EU and the US and Britain have enough economic clout left to force change on Iran.

            This theory is more and more being called into question with the rise of the BRIC and the influence of Turkey.

            The bottom line becomes, can the "West" economically change the course of direction of Iran?

            I think the answer is growing more and more questionable.

2.  Economic hardship in Iran will lead to Regime change?

            I have real concerns with this concept, not from the perspective that hardship will impact the Iranian leaders, but the thought they will not

strike back       before this could happen........ that is what bothers me.

Will they just sit back and let it take place?

            What I do agree with in the second article is the concept of the Arab Spring bringing about disruption and even change in Iran.

            Avoiding attacking Iran, thus unifying the population, is a key concept to this theory.

            Realizing the Iranian leadership understands the value of being attacked is the issue.

            As I have said for months, if Iran see the Arab Spring showing up in Tehran, it will not wait for the fighting to take place at the street level

between Iranian          citizens.

            If Iran believes economic sanctions might bring about social disorder, again they will not wait for that day to come.

            More importantly, if the Chinese and the Russians believe the only way to avoid a regional war is to insure the economic sanctions do not

jeopardize the Iran      public's confidence, then they will insure the Iran

receives the " support" they need.

Who wants change?

Who wants cheap oil?

Who wants to avoid the Arab Spring?

Who wants to avoid a regional War?

Who wants to avoid a nuclear, Persian power in the Middle East?

It seems all the players want something and very few want the same thing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-iran-economy-rates-idUSTRE80O0V5

20120125

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/01/24/president-obama-please-use-option-c

-to-defeat-iran/

SMOKE COMING FROM LEBANON

At face value this may not sound like much and truly  it is not the first time something like this has  happened in the past few months, but never the less it could be the classic spark that starts the fire in Lebanon.

The polarized environment in Lebanon has continued to become more emotional with each passing day.

At some point an event like the one in the attached article  will most likely lead to an overreaction on one side or the other.

For The Syrian government standpoint, the issue of Lebanon is a delicate matter with disastrous outcomes for Syria and more importantly for Iran.

They know Sunni groups and ' others' are supplying the Resistance in Syria...

truly they would not be out in a fishing boat looking to shoot a young fisherman for the sport of it. 

The Syrians are also very aware of the repercussions from  killing Lebanese citizens.... especially on Lebanese soil.

Hezbollah is entrusted to " keep the peace" in Lebanon, but with the emotions of the STL and the current events in Syria, that is mostly likely a mission Iran and Al Assad cannot count on.

 We all know young men with guns trying to stop young men with guns seldom leads to peaceful results.

Within Lebanon the rifts run deep and the events in Syria occupy a large part of the daily conversations.

Basically, most Lebanese  people are just waiting for their own country to catch on fire.

Weapons sales increase with each passing day.

What I find interesting is the attitude the GCC and the Israelis most likely have towards the potential problems in Lebanon.

What better way to deal with  Hezbollah then to paint them as the loyal lapdogs of Syria and Iran and not the protectors of the Lebanese people as they claim they are.

For Hezbollah to ignore events such as this young Fisherman's fate only makes their stance with the Lebanese people weaker, and God knows they cannot afford to side with Syria if Syria continues to murder Lebanese citizens.  

Iran knows the danger Hezbollah faces with the issue of Lebanon.

A distracted Hezbollah has very little time to do the bidding of Iran or Syria.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/01/22/syria-returns-lebanon-fishermen-and-body-of-14-years-old/

FRACTURES INSIDE THE ARAB LEAGUE?

It's been clear from the beginning of this Syrian Observer mission the stakes were more than high for the AL. 

It's also clear the continuing goal from Qatari of becoming a much larger player in the Arab world is a key issue in this AL meeting.

Another point of clarity, in my opinion, is the issue of AL failing to become what it has desired for years.... to be a key player in the affairs of the Middle East.

As I said last week, for the AL to go .. hat in hand.. to the UN / UNSC.. would be a crushing defeat.

The Sunni population of Syria understands this more and more with each passing day.

They also understand the AL would, in reality, accepts additional deaths in Syria than  turn to the UN / UNSC for help.

This is where the rub with Saudi may be coming from.

Saudi has no real love for the AL concept.. some of them not even being oil producing nations and Lord knows that means they are second class  in the eyes of Saudi..

Saudi's  brainchild remains the GCC and that is where they will continue to expend their energy and more importantly.. their money!!!

Ok... so what????

Here is why that is important.

The GCC sees the Syrian issue for what it is.. a opportunity to limit the influence of the Persians.

Having Al Assad play the AL as inept, Paper Tigers kills two birds with one stone.

It shows the world the AL is nothing more than a false marriage of Arab Nations.

It could  allow the GCC to become the next real leading agency in the Middle East.

What's interesting is the position of Qatari.

They push for the AL and they are a member of the GCC..

Here is the difference..

In the AL they stand to be a Key leader. . and in many people's eyes they already are.. Libya is the example.

In the GCC.. Saudi controls the body and everyone knows it.

So, Arabs are tasked to solve problems such as Syria and the Arab Spring. . but  as it has been  for thousands of years,, the  'what's in it for me', mindset continues to set the future for the Arab world and the Middle East.

On Monday, I will set my opinion of where the Syrian event is heading.. given the changes in the past two weeks..

What changes you may ask???

Well.... Russia and China .. oh .... and the Ottomans..

Are they about to unite on the issue of Al Assad???

Not hardly!!

THE FIRST REAL REPORT BY THE ARAB LEAGUE! 

The AL Monitor Mission Report is about to be discussed this weekend.

The AL continues to realize it is easier to complain you are not provided the opportunity to help shape events in the Middle East than it is to actually accomplish something.

I've not seen the DRAFT report, but I predict the overall theme.

The best way to describe the report would be middle of the road with some harsh comments about the Al Assad Government.

They will recommend staying in Syria....... Just what Al Assad and Iran want.

Here is the problem!

The AL and the UNSC are so divided on what to do over Syria; they simply cannot make a stand.

Both the AL and the UN realize the volatility the Syrian Issue brings to the whole region.

The Russian's warning of Sectarian Warfare is correct and that is what both agencies are paralyzed with.

The AL has not only tripped their first time out of the box as a regional body, they have set themselves up for complete failure.

Disgrace is a devastating concept to an Arab Male.

The "Resistance" in Syria may want the AL to approach the UNSC, but the AL knows what that would mean to them.

They have spent years trying to convince the world they are a body that should be allowed to shape the future of the Middle East.

To go hat in hand to the UNSC would be admitting they are exactly what they have been accused of being for years.... a regional joke!

My hunch is the AL will do what they do best.

As Arabs, they will increase the behind the scenes pressure!

Weapons support, Muslim Brotherhood support with public messaging, and offers to Al Assad to leave; much like the GCC did with the issue in Yemen, will become the tactic of the AL.

Unfortunately, the odds of this tactic succeeding depend on the Iranian resolve to not lose Syria as a proxy state.

The AL has to come to terms with Iran if they want to avoid a sectarian war in Syria and most likely in Lebanon.

Turkey, the Ottomans, is the strong card in AL game, but Turkey will do what is best for Turkey, not the AL.

As we all know, there is far more at stake here than just the future of Syria.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16627031

A tactical side note:

The reported ceasefire in the Syrian town of Zabadani is an interesting event.

As a town that is close to the Lebanese border, I am curious the Syrian Military would agree to let the "Resistance" come to terms of a ceasefire.

I'm not sure what units were being utilized to control the town, but their losses were enough to make YOUTUBE clips. (Burning Tanks and Resistance members with anti tank weapons. Russian weapons...

As was the case for the Russian military in Grozny, the Syrian military is figuring out what it means to send Tanks into an Urban environment without dismounted, infantry support and air support.

It could very well be the " Resistance" was able to hold strategic parts of Zabadani given the lack of air support for the Syrian military, something the Syrians are reluctant to do right now; fixed Wing not rotor wing,

What I find interesting is where this town is.

If the "Resistance" is able to resupply and hold a town like Zabadani, does this indicate they have support from some operation inside Lebanon?

If so, then Lebanon becomes a target for not only Syria but Iran as well.

Hezbollah is tasked to hold Lebanon and if they are not doing their job, Iran will force the issue.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/201211884752784213.html

Al Jazeera will cover the AL meeting live and it will be interesting what classic, "words between the words" the AL comes up with.

THE MIDDLE EAST'S VERSION OF " CHICKEN LITTLE".

If you looked at a trend in the blogs.. Open press and the general public discussions all along the Gulf region, you would find one very common theme; the never ending "rumor" of conflict between Israel and Iran and how soon it may happen.

The difference I see this time comes from those who are talking about the "rumor".

As is the case with most emotional issues, who is involved in a "rumor" is often more important than the rumor itself.

Giving creditability is a key issue and this "rumor" is gaining creditability quickly.

Two classic Middle Eastern indicators may not be the right tools to judge this "rumor" by this time around.

1. The speculative price of a barrel of oil.

Constant rumors of conflict are factored into the market right now....Something physical will need to happen and by that time the event will be underway.

2. The unavoidable buildup, mobilization process that typically takes place not just for US forces, but for Israel and "others".

As an example, Iran's" mobilization process, to some extent, is easily hidden with a series of "War Games".

A tactic we have used in the Middle East as well.

So, what makes this Middle East version of Chicken Little plausible this time around?

Syria and Israel!

Like a broken record I'm going to say it again.

Iran cannot and will not allow Syria to fall out of its sphere of influence.

A Syrian, Sunni controlled government is unacceptable to Iran.

A nuclear Iran is unacceptable to Israel............ I think?

An Arab Spring infection of Iran is unacceptable to the Iranian leadership!

The loss of Hezbollah influence in Lebanon, an Ottoman and GCC goal, is unacceptable to Iran.

For the past 10 yrs we have all sat and listen to the stories of a pending confrontation between Israel and Iran!

I know this region of the world and I know what is important to the average person on the streets of the Middle East and it is not the US economy.

We have all heard the story of the Middle Eastern Chicken Little so many times, I am afraid the public doesn't think it's worth worrying about.

I hope they are right, but I'm more and more convinced they are wrong!

I , like some of you, remember the 67 war!

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/07/week-ahead-week-ahead-has-one-common.html

KILLING KEY PLAYERS..... DOES IT WORK?

Back in on July 23rd of 2011, I talked about the last Iranian Scientist assassinated and at that time my key question was, " how could Iran let a key player go unguarded?".

Well, it's January of 2012 and once again I am asking the same question.

If Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan was a vital member of the Iranian nuclear program and four of his counterparts have been killed in the past few years, how did someone get to him?

Now, as a former Cop I will be the first one to admit if someone wants someone dead, it's very hard to keep them from achieving their goal.

If someone has the skills, equipment and opportunity to execute a assassination, then the odds are they are going to succeed or at least make the attempt.

The reoccurring question becomes, how could Iran not realize this might happen?

The simple answer is, they did.

Here is potentially their predicament.

The best way to keep people like Mostafa alive is to keep them isolated.

Put them in a secured compound and limit who has access to them until the task they are assigned to is completed.

Simple right???

Wrong!!!

Here's why.

The Iranians know all too well if they sequester their best and brightest nuclear scientist, it will give a clear perception of  a program that is not what they claim it to be.

Simply put, if you want a program to look like a weapon's program, then treat it like one.

Someone has made the conscious decision to let these key players lead what appears to be a normal life, at least in the public eye.

They must have security details assigned to them, but again the decision had to  have been made to make these details as covert as possible.

Again the issue of not painting a picture that would lead others to think you are up to something seems to have outweighed the Threat Assessment.

Ok, so this works for the ' open public', but it doesn't work when put up against state of the art intelligence organizations.

For " someone" to realize the importance of people like Mostafa is not that hard to do.

The interesting point is, those that went after these " Key Members" of Iran's nuclear program can not admit, at least not openly, they knew the individual's real job.

The next logical question people may start to ask is, " how many of these 'key' scientist are there"?

Is the art of killing critical players of a weapons development program going to prevent the objective from being reached?

Must of us know the answer is no.

So, is this a delaying tactic?

Maybe!

Remember one of the key assumptions of Iran's enemies is based upon the Arab Spring taking place in Iran before a conflict is launched.

What does Iran do about these Assassinations?

As is the case with the last four events, the Iranians are gaining ground in the court of public opinion.

Those that realize the alternative to delaying the program is most likely a regional war understand the value of the killings.

Having said that, the Iranian leadership does win the high ground battle.

So what does Iran do about these consistent attacks?

First off I would bet the leader of the Personal Security Detail for the program is about to pull duty in the Streets of the worst hell hole Iranian leadership can dream of.

The fact that Iran's enemies can consistently enter Tehran and kill key people is more than aggravating to it's leadership.

If Iran cannot keep track of who is in Tehran, a city known for being a " locked down location", then that does not bold well when the Arab Spring organizers show up... my guess is they are already there.

The bottom line is Tehran is not the secure site Iran pretends it to be.

Internal Intelligence / Security  in Iran is being embarrassed on a massive scale.

I would not be surprised if Iran rounds up the rest of the key players and does just what I said they could not afford to do.... Sequester the whole group somewhere safe.

They have the excuse to cover the event now.

" We must protect our national assets who are only trying to bring clean safe nuclear energy to the people of Iran".

Yep, I was not sure how many times " others" would get away with this tactic of killing key members with " sticky bombs".

As a matter of fact, I was floored when I heard how this took place AGAIN!!!

As I said back in July, " fool me once shame on you... fool me twice shame on me"!

So, what is the saying for fool me FOUR TIMES????