ERDOGAN'S HEALTH ... IS IT REALLY AN ISSUE?

The rumors of the Turkish's PM's heath status has been circulating for several weeks now.

His true health status is probably well known in Iran and in Syria as well as the GCC.

There is absolutely no arguing what a vital character he is at this crucial point in time for the region.

rumors of an impending power struggle inside Turkey if Erdogan is unable to continue to effectively lead are going to spread like wildfire.

Perceptions will rule the day and decision will be made based upon both fact and speculation.

Ergdogan having health problems will be like blood in the water near sharks when it comes to the Iranian leadership.

The thought of a distracted Turkey is more than desirable to Iran and Syria.

Anything the two of them can do to take advantage of this potential turmoil in Turkey will be considered.

Indecision on Turkey's part at this critical point in time could spell disaster for the Middle East.

This issue of Erdogan's health will need to be watched very carefully over the next few weeks.

If this story really becomes a concern for Turkish leadership, the Iranian medaling will take place rather quickly.

A distracted Turkey is a dream come true for Syria and Iran and they will do whatever it takes to help make this happen.

IRAN'S UAV STORY... WHAT DOES IT REALLY MEAN?

So, did the Iranians really figure out how to take over a US UAV?

If they did, did they have any "help" in achieving this goal?

My answer is, it doesn't really matter if you live in the Middle East.

If you live in the US, it appears you are more worried about other issues.

What is the impact to the US's technical edge in the arena of UAVs?

Hard to tell!

 We would have to know what level of understanding Iran and anyone who may have helped them has achieved in the field of UAV communication technology.

Lets take a look at the bigger picture this event has created.

Regardless of how it took place, the fact of the matter is Iran's stock as a formidable enemy has gone up not only in the eyes of the West, but more importantly in the eyes of the GCC members.

Imagine the conversation in Saudi when they were told what had happened?

Iran's local enemies must now add yet another factor into the equation.

" If I own a UAV fleet, can Iran take it over or bring them down"?

The bottom line is simple, Iranian prestige has been greatly enhanced with this event.

But as the Iranian leadership bask in the glory of making the US look foolish..... The IDF adds yet another critical factor into their formula for action.

So, did Iran do anything to help their cause or did they add another nail into their coffin?

  

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1215/Exclusive-Iran-hijacked-US-drone-says-Iranian-engineer/(page)/2

RUSSIA.... SYRIA.....IRAN... TURKEY.... IT JUST BECAME MORE COMPLICATED!

Mr. Davutoglu's announcement that Turkey had " No plans to invade Syria" may have calmed a few worried Mothers in Turkey, but the rest of the region didn't hear a thing!

How fired the  first shot  is typically  an issue for the historians.

Who is "willing" to insure the right actions are taken to set the whole conflict in motion is the critical issue.

The other day, I talked about how Putin is now even a candidate for needing a " distraction" based on the protest movement in Russia.

It was one thing to realize Iran was close to needing a " distraction" given the pending fall of it's loyal Proxy Syria, but it is a whole new environment if Putin contemplate the same " distraction theory".

It's important to understand the reoccurring theme right now.

Iran is in real trouble and everyone knows it... to include Putin!

Far from being closer to Iranian dominance in the region, as some experts keep talking about, Iran is on the edge of losing everything!

Enter Mr. Putin!

Putin knows all too well what an Iran without Syria would mean to the region.

His ability to play middleman between Iran and the US and still make money selling arms to Iran and Syria would be all but gone if events keep on the current track.

Putin needs dominance in a region that is critical to his Master Plan as world Fuel Czar.

To accomplish this, he must have influence over the future of current events there.

Does Putin really care if the Sunni or the Shia control Syria?

No...

What he cares about is the Ottoman's ability to become a regional power and thus influence his vision of the future for Russia.

Ottomans and Russians... no love loss there!!!

Iran is a Pawn to Putin and always has been... really... every country in the Middle East is a  Pawn to someone and always has been.

Threatening to stoke the flames of conflict in the Middle East is a weapon Putin will not hesitate to use if the  Arab Spring... Tunisian Virus.. bet Putin sees it my way on this naming nomenclature issue, really becomes an issue in Russia.

Oh.. One last thought.. If there is one thing Putin loves... truly loves.. it's high oil prices...

Keeping the winds of war blowing without starting a fire is a great tactic Putin has a history of implementing.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=82977

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=249478

PUTIN FACES HIS BIGGEST TEST YET.

The sly KGB leader has spent his whole life dealing with misleading information and covering up actions his fingerprints were on.

What is fairly new to him is the whole phenomenon of " Social Media".

It was clear from the beginning old Dictators had no clue what the 21st century Social Networking world meant or how it could impact them and Putin seems to be no different in that respect.

His ability to divert issues is a one I have already written about and his rant about the US last week was the classic example of that thought process.

So, is Russia in the early stages of a " Arab Spring... I bet Putin would agree with me when I call this event the Tunisian Virus.... as most are talking about now?

I think it's too early to say.

The fine line of not over reacting and not under reacting is the key to future events in Russia.

Are the people upset enough to turn the protest into a full scale problem for Putin?

Not yet, but as I have said before, it only takes one critical error on the part of the government, Police, and the flames could come alive in Russia.

If I had to spend energy right now on a area, it would defiantly be Syria and not Russia.

Having said that, if Putin becomes concerned about events in Russia, fanning the flames of Syria might just be his ticket.

For months now I have talked about how certain countries need  "distractions" from events inside their borders or near them.

It wouldn't take much to add Russia to this list and it all depends on the Old KGB Boss's ability to shape his future.

It may be getting cold in Russia, but if Putin and his Puppets don't be careful, it could get warm real soon and he will make sure that "Heat" spreads if he has to.

PUTIN'S SETS A NEW COURSE WITH THE US!

Putin is a skilled manipulator with a lifetime of experience thanks to the
KGB.

He was ready two days ago when the protest showed up in Moscow.

He had his "supporters" replacing the protestors as soon as the Police pushed
them out of the area.

The ability to take the comments by the US leadership, Secretary Clinton,
Senator John McCains' Twitter comment, and turn them into a pro Putin topic
is exactly what he knows how to do.

If someone thinks for a moment an Arab Spring type event in Russia is a good
thing, they need a reality check and fast!

The Law of Unintended Consequences may or may not apply here, but one thing
is for sure... this is a very....very.. .dangerous game.

If we were are going to have any "luck" with Russia on the Syrian and Iranian
issues, I'm not sure being accused of supporting the Arab Spring in Russia is
the way to go about it.


http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2011/12/20111286543602879.html

http://www.salon.com/2011/12/07/mikhail_gorbachev_calls_for_a_new_vote_in_rus
sia/

http://news.yahoo.com/clinton-cites-serious-concerns-russia-voting-145450213.
html

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20111206/169389247.html

LIEBERMAN TO PUTIN??? WHAT WAS THE MESSAGE?

The story goes FM Lieberman arranged to talk to Putin about Russian arms sales to Syria.

I have had hard time believing this was the main topic or even the real reason Lieberman asked for the meeting; side note... it's interesting that Putin agreed!

The typical reaction to a FM wishing to have an additional meeting would be with his or her counterpart; in this case Russian Deputy Prime Minister Zubkov.

So, why did Putin agree and was arms sales to Syria, not the number one topic on the Israeli PM's list right now, really the issue?

If you look at the Israeli public messaging campaign of the past few weeks, you may come to the conclusion this "short notice / unofficial / meeting was part of that continuing messaging plan.

Did PM Lieberman make a point to let Putin hear right from Lieberman's lips to his Putin's ears how serious Israel is about Iran?

Did he waste a one on one meeting with Putin to discuss something as old and worn out as Arms Sales?

Here is the next interesting question that will not be answered by a media announcement!

How did Putin answer?

To me, the reaction of Putin to this meeting is far more important than the real reason it took place.

I think we will see some indication in the near future.

Is Putin now in a position that he has to chose sides?

Did he get the " You are with us or you are against us" speech?

Interesting event to say the least.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=248557

RUMORS... PERCEPTIONS... PARANOIA.. A DEADLY COCKTAIL!

If you look to traditional indicators of pending conflict such as fuel, unit
mobilization ect... ect.. you may not be accurately assessing the current
tension in the Middle East.

For months now I have continued to state Iran cannot and will not accept the
fall of Al Assad and the follow on threat of the Arab Spring showing up in
Iran.

Freedom in Syria spells doom for Iran's Zealots ,with the exception of
Persian Nationalist. ( Another story in itself).

Everyday Iran seems to move closer and closer to a "use or lose" mentality as
their final decision on their future.

To me, one of the prime indicators Iran is in a final stage of desperation
would be the loss of its "proxy" fighters... Syria.. Hezbollah, Lebanon and
Hamas.

Iraq's fledgling relationship is far too immature to place Iraqi support in
Iran's camp in time of warfare; that and the brutal history of the Iran /
Iraq war.

So, with the reports of Hamas beginning to leave Syria and stories of Iran
warning Hamas they will lose support from Iran, I see nothing but increased
danger of confrontation.

Next, consider the perception Iran must have based on the public statements
coming out of Israel?

Iran making public they have placed forces on "a war footing" may just be
somewhat of a media show, but again perception begins to shape events in the
Middle East more than reality.

Now, if Hamas is implementing an exit plan for its relationship with Syria
and Iran, can Hezbollah be far behind?

Yes, Hezbollah is far more tied to Iran and Syria then the Shia Hamas, but
the future of Lebanon is paramount to Hezbollah and Hezbollah knows their
destruction is all but guaranteed in a confrontation between Iran and Israel.

As Israel continues to plan and review second and third order effects of an
attack on Iran, it must be weighing the likelihood of Hamas and Hezbollah
allowing their two organizations to be completely destroyed for the sake of
the Persians!

Lip service is a common practice in the Middle East and Israel understands
this implicitly.

Getting someone to "sit this one out" or just pay lip service is not out of
the question..... Just ask Saudi!

Quietly arranging the GCC or Jordan to make Hamas and the Shia of Lebanon
understand they can limit their pain in the pending war if they just sit on
the sidelines must be a key objective for Israel.

Lebanon and Gaza will not come out of this conflict untouched, but the
ability to rebuild is based upon the limitations Israel places on their
perceived threats.

I simply do not see how the Middle East is going to avoid a confrontation
unlike any we have seen there in the past forty years.



http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/iran-threatening-to-cut-hamas-funds-a
rms-supply-if-it-flees-syria-1.399612

http://www.debka.com/article/21543/

http://www.debka.com/article/21545/