ARAB LEAGUE TAKES THE ACTION IT WANTED TO AVOID.

For years now, the AL has been seen as nothing more than a Paper Tiger or a group of Rich Puppets to the Oil industry.

It's easy to say the " respect" level provided to them was virtually nonexistent.

If ever there was a time for the AL to begin the transformation process leading to actually becoming a influential organization, it's now... during the Arab Spring....

If Western domination of the region is really coming to an end, and I think it is, then the AL must make every effort to finally become what the people of the region have long wished it would become... a respected... unified.. leadership council that must be listened to... short answer... taken seriously, not just by the world but the people in the region as well.

Now, how confident am I this will happen??? Not very!!!

It's hard to ask someone to describe a color they have never seen before.

It's hard to get a body of so called "leaders" to truly unify when "unity" is a word that has never taken hold in the entire region..

It's impossible for a group to decide the best "Democratic" path for one member when a majority of the members can't spell Democracy!

Not to give up hope on the AL being able to truly influence Syria and thus begin the process of becoming a functional body for the region, but their very first action that signified unity on the Syrian issue was a huge mistake.

To insinuate the AL was taken the sanctions option to prevent a Libyan style intervention was absolutely disastrous.

When the AL came up with this strategy, did they stop to think about the repercussions of what Iran and Russia and China might be?

I guess the more frightening answer is.... yes they did!!!!

Iran will waste little time announcing the AL is simply a puppet of the West and the warning of a pending intervention simply exposes the real plan.

The Region is at a point where one disastrous statement can lead to open warfare and the AL is simply too amateurish to deal with the region.

The economic impact of these new sanctions will be talked about in the next two days or so, but the message that was delivered with the sanctions announcement will be the real spark for further actions.

If anyone thinks Al Assad is going to change course now, they are living in a dream world.

He just heard the AL tell him there is now way out... no way out but perhaps sending the entire Middle East into war!

The AL has a long... long ways to go yet...  

A TROUBLING  SIGN FROM SYRIA.

Although the accusation of Israel being involved with the resistance movement in Syria is not new, the disturbing trend of Syrian officials making this statement can not be underestimated.

Most people are well aware of the age old tactic of creating an outside threat to ether justify the actions of a desperate government or distract the population of a troubled nation.

In Syria's case,  both probably apply.

With today's deadline, yet another one by the Arab League, set to expire, many are revisiting  the issue of Al Assad actually contemplating taking his country into an external conflict or, in a worse case scenario, supporting his own country sliding into a Civil War.

In the second case, I cannot imagine his Sunni Business class and Christian supporters allowing him to take this path.

I'm not sure they would even support him forcing Syria into a external conflict, although some of them would see this as a money making opportunity.  

" Military Officials" like the one referenced in this attached article do not " speak" without guidance.

The message has been there for several months now, but perhaps Al Assad is pushing the threat just a little harder.

It should not be overlooked and I don't think it is...

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=246999

IS IRAN EXECUTING THE NEXT PHASE OF THEIR PLAN?

Although Egypt is giving the Syrian event a few short days off of the top of the news, it is not going to delay what now even the Arab League understands to be the inevitable.. the fall of the Syrian government.

Iran knows this better than anyone else to include the Arab League and the fear factor is overwhelming for them.

Iran is also more convinced than ever Saudi is supporting the Syrian Resistance and most likely the Free Syrian Army / FSA !

Is this true?

Remember, the 21st century, Social Network world is based on perception far more than fact!

Besides.... It probably is true to some degree and the level of support is not important to Iran.

So, the "Proxy" events between Iran and Saudi have been going on for sometime now and this latest violence in the Shia township is just another dangerous chapter.

With all that has taken place in the Middle East this year, it is important not to lose track of who the real issues and what the impact might be.

The balance of power in the Middle East is coming into question.

Will the Persians or the Arabs or the Ottomans take control?

The fact of the matter is, the "West" is losing it's grip and the financial ability to keep that grip is all but gone.

 How will organizations like the BRIC influence the future of the Middle East?

What role does China and Russia see and what are they willing to do to gain influence in the region?

The world still pivots around carbon based fuel and the cheapest is oil.

The Middle East is the center stage for two of the world's religions and oil.

That has been and will continue to be a very dangerous combination!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/11/2011112465955365750.html

EGYPT... WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Great article I found today that really gets down to what the issue is going to be for Egypt.

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1072/eg1.htm

It's easy to be confused by the scorecard right now.

The Muslim Brotherhood wants quick elections, but they don't want the Military exempt from Parliamentary oversight given the MB plans on running the Parliament.

The Socialist, Secularist don't want quick elections given they are not ready, but they don't want the Military to govern the country any longer!

The Egyptian Military doesn't want the country ruled by Islamic Fundamentalist and they don't want to  have their economic control of  Egypt overseen by anyone.

So, everyone wants their cake and eat it to!

Israel can't take the stress of more instability on their border.

Turkey would love to see the MB take control of Egypt and them come calling on Turkey on how to govern as an Islamic State.

Iran loves the distraction, but knows the growing power of the MB is going to mean trouble for Iran down the road.

Syria loves the distraction, but Assad knows it's too little and too late.. unless it goes real ...real.. bad... like Civil War bad and in that case Syria blows up anyway.

Remember back in January of 2011 when everyone was so excited about the Arab Spring and all the great things that were going to come out of it?

How's that working for you now????

ANOTHER TENSE WEEK IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

A great deal has taken place since the last time I posted on this site, so let's get right down to it.

Several topics, so I will keep it simple and try to relate what they could mean to each other.

Egypt:

I had to say, " I told you so.... but I told you so"!!

If anyone really was foolish enough to believe the Fundamentalist were not going to shape the outcome of the elections... well they were simply dreaming.

As I said back in March of this year, the Muslim Brotherhood and those like them were going to wait until the right moment in time and then set the nation into yet another downward spiral.

The fact this has taken place just days before the election is no coincidence.

Fear has always made the everyday citizen vote for what they think is going to be safe in times of trouble and this is exactly what the MB is planning on.

The concept of letting Egypt virtually begin to burn and then offer a pathway out of the madness has been the plan for the MB from day one.

It's working  and I predict it's going to work next week.

The problem will come when the youthful, liberal, sectarians realize what is happening.

I think they already do.

I don't see the violence getting any better and as a matter of fact, it has a strong chance of getting much worse between now and the elections on the 28th.

I'm not sold they will take place as scheduled... not because of the MB or the Egyptian Military, but the youth who realize what is going on.

Egypt is in real... real... trouble.. and the Arab League has to be in a full panic.

They have way too much on their plate to deal with Egypt becoming destabilized yet again.

Syria:

Assad is watching events in Egypt and praying it only gets worse.

He is watching the economic, political circus in the US and saying a second payer.

These two events have shoved Syria, at least for now, from the top of the news headlines and both events have the potential to keep Assad on " page two.. below the fold line, for several days if not longer.

Assad could not have chosen a better time to thumb the AL in the eye over the

" Observer" issue.

The AL will simply not have time to deal with Assad's attitude while Egypt is burning.

Iran:

Like Syria, Iran could not have had events in Egypt happen at a better time.

Some might say Iran may have even had a hand in the flair up, but I'm not sold on that theory.

The MB is not known for working with Iran on " Distraction" concepts.. far from it!!!!

The Saber Rattling by Israel over the past week is noticed far and wide.

Would the Israelis decide when to or when not to attack Iran's operations based on the events taking place in Egypt?

Probably not, but it has to be a factor in the " go... no go" review.

As I have said before.. the issue between Iran and Israel is not if Israel decides to attack.... but if Iran determents Israel is going to attack.. really believes it's going to happen.

The whole Middle East and North Africa moves based on " perception" right now.

The GCC:

Yemen should be the topic they are working on the most, but it's not and will not be for sometime to come... that's good news for the current leadership in Yemen.

The GCC and the AL are closely linked and the topics of Iran, Israel.... Syria... Egypt is more than they can collectively handle.

What would be interesting to see is what is taking place between the AL.. GCC and Turkey...

Can the GCC and the AL risk letting the Ottoman's be the deciders of events in Syria?

Can the two of them allow Turkey to make the " deals" with Russia " others" on what should happen in Syria?

Ah... the days of sitting around and dragging on the Shisha pipe are long gone.

When you want to play " world leader".. when you want to demand "respect". the leisure time all but disappears.

It's what the leadership of Saudi learned years ago....

"Let the West pump the oil and worry about the oil... we will just sit in the piles of money"!

TWO STORIES THAT BOTH HAVE IMPORTANT OVERTONES:

One thing the media is getting right this morning is the dangerous change
this attack on the Syrian Intelligence HQ brings to the conflict.

The Syrian Intelligence and Secret Police are placed under the title of the
Syrian Air Force as a cover story for their existence.

DEBKA is most likely correct with its assumption of Arab League and GCC
support for this dramatic step.

Assad will waste no time attempting to turn this attack into a classic, "I
told you so", response.

He will leverage the event to show he is actually fighting an armed
resistance in his country and how can he be expected not to respond?

I've noticed that most of the defected Syrian Military members are back in
civilian clothes, thus making the " hit and blend" tactic far more effective.



It will not just be Assad that reacts to this dramatic increase to conflict
in Syria. (Actually...... this is the second time the Syrian Air Force has
been attacked)


Iran will respond in some tactical way soon.

Look for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, rocket attacks from Gaza to be an
option. ( Limited... but large enough to be a media distraction.)

The objective here will be to move the story back to the issue of Israel and the PA.

http://www.debka.com/article/21486/

Second Article:

I've been reading about this group and there is an
important issue that is lost in this commentary.

Notice how the FSA does not claim they are attacking the Syrian Military!

They are fighting the "Criminal Gangs loyal to Assad".... the Shabiha ... who
really are armed Thugs!

It's important for the FSA not be seen as a threat to the Syrian Military if
they plan on larger numbers of defections.

It's one thing to state you are only fighting the Shabiha, it's another to
insure your actual attacks and kills are not regular Syrian Military
members.. most of whom are Sunni!

The challenge for the Syrian Revolutionary Council / SRC / is they must make
every attempt to show the Arab League and the West that they can avoid a
Civil War in Syria.

Being able to control the FSA and what they target is the tactical issue the
SRC must overcome.

At the same time, Assad's Sunni Business class support is going to think long
and hard about the AL isolation of Assad.

To them, Syria is all about money and the AL in combination with the UN
isolating Assad will dramatically impact the ability to make money!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

OPTIMISM  IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS HARD TO COME BY!

To say most of the "opinions" published on Al Jazeera are one sided is somewhat of an overstatement, but this particular article was nearly palatable.

It's fairly obvious the US has placed a great deal of hope on being able to work with the Muslim Brotherhood... something I'm not holding my breath over.

For months now, I have made the point of reminding everyone the Arab Spring.. Yes I still refer to it as the " Tunisian Virus".. will not end with the same visions it started with.

The "trend" is for a more non sectarian post government and I don't see that trend changing  anytime soon.

Hope is a powerful humanistic trait that is all too  often the only gift people survive on.

For the people who started the movements in the Middle East and North Africa, hope is the cornerstone of their dreams.

The problem is,  throughout history,  hope has often been  the victim of bold aggression!

When the Arab Spring is over, my bet is  bold aggression will win the day. 

Hope!! Sometimes that's all we can do!!! 

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/11/20111112101016147679.html