WHERE HAS THE PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD ISSUE GONE?

The short answer is, nowhere fast!!

The reality is, nobody is in a real hurry, other than the Palestinians, to push the UNSC vote.

It appears the PA is one vote away from having the nine needed to force the US veto and that one vote is going to be virtually impossible to get.

In the long run it won't really matter given the US will take the blame one way or another, but not having to officially cast the " Veto" vote is a small victory for the US.

As for the UNESCO recognition, if it does one thing, it sets the "trend" of UN organizations getting comfortable with saying yes to a Palestinian membership.

As for the relationship between Abbas and Hamas, the past week has been another trying chapter in Palestinian leadership journals.

Iran's dictated missile events revolving around it's power struggle with Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood did nothing for Abbas or Hamas's future.

That kind of events is the last thing Abbas or Hamas needs right now and that is exactly one of the reasons Iran called for the event.

So, what does all this mean?

How does the actions out of Gaza and the threat of Israeli response tie into the pending UNSC vote?

Well, for one thing, it could mean Iran is threatening they could keep a vote from event taking place.

A proxy conflict between Israel and the forces in Gaza would be just the excuse the UNSC would need to kick the vote down the road for months if not longer.

So, is the Palestinian statehood vote a bargaining chip in the struggle to keep Syria / Assad / in power and in the Iranian camp?

I would absolutely bet on it if I had to.

If the Arab League wants to see the Palestinian / UNSC vote come to fruition, then Iran may very well demand the Arab League come to terms with Assad.

Surprise.... surprise... what took place today????

Ah yes..... an " agreement" between the Arab League and Syria!!!

Imagine that..

Now, lets see who betrays who first!

It's the Middle Eastern way of doing business....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15554178

ISRAEL'S ATTEMPT TO WORK  WITH EGYPT.

Netanyahu's decision to temporaraly hold off on retaliating against groups in Gaza has a twofold message from both Israel and Egypt.

Israel allows itself the perception they are still willing and able to work with Egypt on matters of regional importance.

Egypt is allowed to send the message to Iran that they can still hold the fate of Gaza even though Iran pushed it's case for being able to influence groups like Islamic Jihad.

Round one went to Iran with Egypt having to watch Iran initiate operations in Gaza, but round two goes to Egypt for convincing Israel Egypt can pressure events coming from Gaza.

It's a Chess game, as it always is, but this game has five key players right now.

Egypt /  Hamas / Palestinian Authority / Israel and Iran.

How long does Israel hold off you may ask?

Until the first missile strikes an emotional target or the Israeli pubic demands protection.

I don't think this is the prelude to a full scale event, but Iran's option of a " proxy war" to protect Assad is smack dab in the middle of the table.

It won't take much right now... and the Palestinian leadership, to include Hamas, knows it.

If someone or some team has to be sacrificed to keep Israel from striking Gaza, Hamas and Egypt will make sure that happens. 

ASSAD AND IRAN SENDING A MESSAGE TO HAMAS?

In the never ending conversation about distractions and counter distractions, did Assad just send a message to Hamas at the same time Iran pushed yet another distraction event?

This DEBKA story talks around the edges of a reoccurring topic; the issue of Hamas leadership leaving Syria.

Everyone is fairly confident Hamas is not supporting the missile events of the past few days. 

 The problem is, Hamas has little to no control over the actions of  Jihad Islami and the Israelis know it.

If needed the Israeli government can place the blame for such events on the Palestinian leadership, but this time around to do so would only play into the hands of Iran and Assad.

So the events of the past few days have two true goals.

One; Assad's message to Hamas on how hard he can make like for them.

Again, the good news is, Israel didn't fall for it.

The second goal was Iran's way of showing everyone their ability to control events in the Middle east.

In that respect, goal number two was successful.

As a sidebar to this Iranian lead event, the issue of Egypt and Iran can be addressed.

Who can give orders to groups like Jihad Islami is a point of contention between Iran and Egypt.

So, it many ways the events of the past few days only epitomize the day to day complexities of the Middle East.

Tension finds a different way to build from day to day..

So many seem to be looking for a ways to damage each other and in doing so make it dangerously easy to stumble into a major event.

 THE FUTURE KING.. NOT WHAT IRAN WANTED TO SEE.

A quick note about the announced heir to the Throne  in Saudi.

Prince Nayef bing Abdul-Aziz, as I stated earlier in the week, is an interesting choice.

He is a real traditionalist, conservative who looks upon reform reluctantly.

He has a strong, working knowledge of how the business world works and is very in tune with world government.

He especially has a " understanding" of the issues with Iran.

If he becomes King, Iran will have to deal with a strong Saudi Nationalist / Sunni who will not look towards Iran with a sparkle in his eye!

The bad news for the Saudi youth will be his vision of "reform".. He doesn't really have one!

The Arab Spring will not find his endorsement anytime soon. 

All in all, an interesting choice that spells future trouble for Iran and perhaps the Saudi youth..

A fact the Iranians will not overlook!! 

A SURVEY THAT TELLS FAR MORE THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK.

Again tonight, I am going to continue to look at the issue of Syria and Iran as it continues to be the most important and volatile issue in the Middle East.

 Although the DoS conducts a series of detailed surveys on Middle Eastern
societal trends, this one presents a timely look into one of the most
volatile issues taking place in that part of the world..... Syria!!!

The opportunity for Iran to save Assad is quickly coming to a close and
Iran's leadership knows that.

The fact the two Iranian leaders are in a state of conflict only insures that
decisions on how to react to Syrian evens will remain uncoordinated and
poorly thought out.

If the time has come for Iran to abandon Assad, rather than create an
external threat to the region to divert the attention from Syria, then true
panic could be about to take control in Iran.

Did the situation with Assad create the Assassination plot?

Was it an attempt to divert the world's attention from Syria?

It doesn't seem logical this would work, but Iran is becoming more illogical
with each passing day.

Rumors of Iran looking for some new "working" relationship with an Assad
replacement has been flying around the Middle East for over two months.

Iran has and probably continues to talk to Turkey about the future of Syria;
Assad name is becoming less of the center piece of any negotiations.

Iran must look for some common ground with Turkey if it is to stand a chance
of controlling the future leadership of Syria.

Frankly, I think the time of Iran calling the shots in Syria are all but
over.

What Iran has to settle for now is agreeing with Turkey on what the next
Syrian government should look like.

The problem will be the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, once again, will be the
issue for Iran.

The Sunni and Shia  dynamic  sets the tone.

What should terrorize Iran more than anything is not just the pending loss of
Syria, but the fact the Arab Spring will spread from Syria to Iran itself!

Just look at the survey results and it is easy to see the future of Iran's
current leadership.

I have said this for months, but Ahmadinejad only chance is to let the Arab
Spring come to Iran and align himself with the Persian Nationalist Youth
Movement.

He will have to make a desperate attempt to abandon the Khamenei leadership.

He will have to show a future for "Persians" that speaks to the dreams of
young, educated Iranians not the Mullah's and the repressive past!

He will have to do this knowing he will not only alienate the Shia, but the
Sunni Syrian Muslim Brotherhood as well.

I don't think he can do it.... but someone in Iran might!

Who becomes that someone and can this course of action take place before
Khamenei decides to crush the movement or distract the region with a proxy
war?

If Khamenei waits too long, the Civil / Sectarian / War in Syria will be
underway; it actually already is!

This is why Syria is important.

This is why the events in Syria far outweigh the issues in Egypt... Libya.... ect .... even the Palestinian Statehood issue; for the moment!

Here is my bet....

Khamenei makes a move on Ahmadinejad and then quickly creates a crisis for
Saudi and the GCC...

He can't go to war with Israel.. that would destroy Iran and all of it's dreams both of a Persian Empire and or, depending on what leader's eyes your are looking through, an Iranian Caliph!

Khamenei can chose a proxy war with the GCC , namely Saudi, but even that runs the risk of spreading and escalation into Iran's destruction.

  The bottom line is this; the Middle Eastern fuse is almost to the bomb and this survey proves it.

http://aai.3cdn.net/e0279d08c84eee1ebf_iqm6b1t2w.pdf

GORILLA TACTICS IN A PENDING CIVIL/ SECTARIAN WAR!

Take good look at this picture from Syria.

This is not what the entrance to  a city that is dealing with, " small bands of armed thugs" should look like.

This is the look of a city that reflects a pending sectarian conflict.

For weeks now the stories of checkpoints based on clans and or religious beliefs have grown in numbers and details.

This picture, as most pictures do, tells a thousand words.

Sandbags are not the tools of "insurgents"!

Sandbags are a sign of a Syrian Military checkpoint.

A military checkpoint that knows it can see more than just a random drive by shooting from a " thug" in a vehicle.

The mounded dirt is a vehicle denial barrier.

These are not the actions of a " Policing effort to counter a few " thugs".

What this does indicate is the Syrian Military is trying to hold " Hostile" territory.

That means they do not control the area they are in.

They may occupy parts of it, but they are under siege and the bunker is their fighting position.

If what Syria was dealing with was nothing more than " thugs" roaming the streets of otherwise peaceful cities, there would be no dug in fighting position.

Defectors from the Syrian Military grow in numbers with each passing day and each time they do so, the add to the collective intelligence the Opposition needs to make decisions .

 Just imagine if a young Sgt or Officer defects.

The information they have of troop strength, unit capabilities and unit locations are all compromised.

If these defecting members are brining unit equipment with them, not just weapons, but radios, then the issue is even more dire for the Syrian Military.

Bottom line:

This is a very telling picture and it's unlike most I've seen coming out of  Syria.

The Arab League is meeting in the next twenty-four hours on the Syrian topic and they know all too well time is running out.

PS. I wonder how many Turkish " Military Advisors" are inside Syria?

If you think not.... .think again..

If you find one, he will have a Saudi Debit Card in his wallet. 

WILL ASSAD PAY THE PRICE FOR IRAN'S ACTIONS?

Last night and in fact several times in the past two months I have mentioned the theory of Assad becoming the Saudi target in order to strike back at Iran.

Lets take a minute and review this topic given I truly believe this " theory" is quickly becoming reality.

What facts add up to from the Saudi viewpoint?

The Arab Spring:

  It's been a frightening issue from the very beginning with Saudi convinced Iran has tried and will continue to try to " weaoponize" the concept against the Gulf States.

All Saudi has to do is look to Bahrain and Yemen and  suddenly Iranian " plots" show up in every conversation.  ( Not far from the truth)

 The Assad Factor:

Saudi knows all too well how desperate Iran is over the Syrian issue.

Paranoia and desperation are dangers ingredients in the hands of a unstable government such as Iran.  This one keeps the Saudi leadership up at night!!! It's the "fuel" behind the Iranian plot against the Gulf States.

As I have said time and time again.... Iranian / Persian / dreams are all but dead with the loss of a buffer partner in Syria. 

Saudi leadership realizes the domino event in Lebanon if Assad falls.

The Palestinian Statehood issue:

Trying to keep this issue from blowing up at a time when Saudi and it's Gulf State partners don't need any additional events is a top priority for Saudi.

Knowing that, Iran fingerprints are virtually all over the issue and Saudi has to work daily to counter Iranian involvement on yet another issue that could end up in Saudi's backyard.

Turkey:

Anyone who thinks there is a pending love story between Iran and Turkey / Persia / Ottoman Empires in the making / is simply not a student of history.

Saudi's interaction with Turkey is a delicate balance between future Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood goals and Iranian reaction to the Brotherhood.

How does Saudi insure  a " Two Front" counter to Iranian desires in the Middle East..... Turkey!!!!  But.... Nothing in this world is free and the Ottomans' have their own visions for the region. A careful future game for the Saudi government.

So, in the game of Middle Eastern power struggles..... who has the advantage?

The issue is clearly becoming one  of  Persian ... Arab... Ottoman concepts with all three attempting to highjack  the Muslim Faith! Sound familiar ??? What's the old saying about History????

Ok, here is what I think the real advantage is..... MONEY!!!

If we look at the rhythm of the world right now, the undeniable fact is this..

A large part of the world is feeling left out...

The " Social Injustices" or "Economic Imbalances" make up a large part of the world perception right now.

Social Media and Social Networking is having an impact on daily world events far beyond what any Think Tank can possibly comprehend right now.

So, who has the advantage in the Middle East?

Saudi!!

Remember the " real" advantage .... MONEY...

Can Saudi buy it's problems to the point they don't happen?

I've been there when they have successfully made this happen even when I thought it was an outrageous concept.

Social unrest is the key weapon for Iran right now and Saudi can buy their way out of trouble.

Pushing the Peninsula Shield Forces, a concept I know well,  into Bahrain was not to send a message to the Shii of Saudi or Bahrain, but a warning to Iran itself.

Iran will not get the results it is looking for in Saudi by convincing a few Shii to take to the streets in the  Eastern part of the country... even with the help of Iranian instigators.

As soon as Iran realizes this is a flawed plan, the next step will have to be taken....

Violence and it will have to be somewhere rather than in the Eastern Part of Saudi..... hence the issue with Yemen...

Ok... it comes down to this... It's a race... 

Who strikes first?

The Saudi push on Assad or the Iranian plot in Yemen and Bahrain?

My bet is Assad is going to lose!

In typical Saudi style... the fingerprints will not belong to a Saudi.... but the money will!!!

"The Enemy of my Enemy".. It rules the Middle East....

Keep an eye on Turkey...

Keep an eye on Hamas ...

Assad sees Assassins all around him... if not physically.. politically ... and their paycheck is cashed in Riyadh!!!