IRAN IS NOT POPULAR??? SAY IT ANT SO!!!!

So,  it appears Iran in not wining the popularity competition in the Middle East?

Wow; is anyone really shocked?

What was missing from the article is the common knowledge that Arabs don’t trust Persians regardless of the so called common religion.

I’m not sure the Iranian leadership is too terribly upset with a survey run by an American firm and I’m really confident they are not trying to win a popularity contest.

Is there value to having the information from this survey?

Yes!

The DoS and other agencies could, and I stress the concept of ‘could’, utilize this information for building programs designed to minimize the Iranian government’s actions and influence in the Middle East.

As time goes on and the Arab Spring, now the Arab Summer, continues to bring about change in the Middle East, never forget the baseline assumption that Arabs don’t trust, really trust, Persians / Iran.  P.S. The vision of the “ Persian Empire” is based on owning the Arabs, not working with them.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/07/28/poll-irans-popularity-sinks-in-the-arab-world/

Two other quick comments based on  a few interesting articles I read today.

SYRIAN OPPOSITION TRAINING?

I’ve talked about the concept of a ‘shadow government’ operating out of Turkey and how that must sit with Assad and Iran, but  this story brings a new twist.

It’s one thing for a large group of individuals representing who knows how many different ‘agendas’ to sit down and pretend as if they are forming a new government for Syria….. but training…… breakouts… classes?

I didn’t dig into this too deep, but I would like to know who are the ‘instructors’ and who set up the training; not to mention who is paying for it.

A ‘Technocratic’ flavor to this shadow government could go a long ways towards other nations approaching them in behind the scene support.

Can they keep the fractional groups truly on a Technocratic path is the real question.

There is more to this story and it will be interesting to see who picks up on it.

As a side note; don’t overlook the issue of Turkey, “The Ottoman Empire” continuing to ‘host’ these meetings….. The “Persian Empire” doesn’t!!!!

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/07/28/syrian-opposition-activists-meet-in-istanbul-to-plan-strategy/

TENT CITY A SIGN OF BIG TROUBLES!

I will get into this topic more this weekend after I’ve finished following up on a few issues mentioned in this story.

The short version is this; Israel is facing an ever increasing problem from both the Liberal, Academic movement and the more sinister Muslim Brotherhood movement.

How these two will inadvertently combine to stress the Israeli government  to the breaking point is going to be the next real story of the Summer of 2011.

http://www.debka.com/article/21152/ 



BOMBS IN LEBANON AND PHONES IN SYRIA!

Here are two interesting articles that are worth talking about.

The attack in Lebanon today has a simple question attached to it.

Who is behind it?

You can roundup the usual list of suspects, but the timing is what makes this event important.

Tensions are high in Lebanon and the art of executing an event knowing someone else will take the blame is a common event in the Middle East.

The type of device and the way it is detonated is typically a good “clue” as to who might be the perpetrator; but again, I mention the concept of setting up some other organization by mimicking their typical actions. 

So, let’s look at the next logical question?

Why?

If you go with the conspiracy, ‘setup’ concept mentioned above, then you may want to look at who would benefit from pushing Lebanon into violence.

            The MB? 

            I don’t buy that one.

            They have their hands full with Syria and Egypt.

            AQ or those that ‘look just like AQ’ ?

If you accept the event is just an unrelated act in the line of a continuation of  the ‘resistance’  towards the UN in Lebanon.

            I’m placing my bet with this theory.

            The device and the way it was detonated are the key clues to the story.

            Why not Hezbollah?

Most believe, including me, Hezbollah is trying to keep a lid on the violence in Lebanon right now based on the guidance from Iran and Assad.

Now, I know I’ve been in the camp of Iran promoting ‘distractions’ to get the pressure off of Syria, but this in not the model they would be looking for.

A complex list of other reasons why this event doesn’t have Hezbollah strings attached could be discussed, but there really is no need.

Yet, if someone wakes me up and tells me Hezbollah did have a hand in this event, it’s a very….very…. bad sign.

If someone comes to me and makes the argument, “ Hezbollah is so worried about the STL, they sent a ‘warning shot’ to the UN.

I don’t buy it, but I sure don’t want to hear this theory pop up.

We are heading for bad times in Lebanon sooner than  I thought if Hezbollah was involved.

Cell phones and radio stations:

The discussion of cell phones being provided to the Syrian resistance movement is a sideshow based upon old comments the US made about Libya several months ago.

                                                                                                             

If the story is true, and it probably has some level of truth to it, so what?

99.9 percent of the people in the US and Europe and even the Middle East won’t give a hoot.

Who will?

Yep… IRAN!!!! Oh.. and the lapdog Assad.

The interesting issue is, even if the story is not accurate, the Iranians and Assad are so paranoid, they will believe it.

They have the technology to disrupt the equipment…. Well… maybe.. 

If  I was a betting man, when the two stories were briefed to the lapdog and Iran, I bet the part about a radio station supported by Saudi received  the lion’s share of the reaction.

When you take these two events and stack them on top of each other, you have a very aggravated Iranian Master and an increasingly confused Assad.

Here comes the question that continues to have the most sought after answer for all the Middle East….. What does Iran do about it?

At what point in time does Iran decide ‘ enough is enough’?

Don’t get me wrong; it’s a good thing to provide support to Syrian resistance.

Everyone just needs  to remember that actions based on looking good in the media or at the UN could very well have reactions that are not fully anticipated.

It’s about time everyone review the age old, “ Law of Unintended Consequences” .

I have mentioned  this "law" in the past, but a reminder right  about now is a good thing!

P.S… Notice the typical Saudi ‘disclaimer’ about not being able to account for all the actions of its citizens. … With the exception of Women drivers!!



SHOPS CLOSED…. ASSAD STARTING TO PROMOTE SECTARIAN VIOLENCE?

Two interesting and very important comments in the story need to be addressed.

1. The concept of closing shops, businesses as a tactic to protest Assad’s government continues to grow.

I’m not sure most people understand the overall economic crisis the resistance has brought about in Syria.

Every time people go to the streets in numbers talked about in this story, the business world comes to a grinding halt.

It doesn’t matter if your business is taking part or not.

When that many people rise up, everything is impacted.

Don’t lose site of the fact what town this sacked Mayor resided over.

Yep.. Oil is the issue here.

Placing a loyal Intelligence Officer in as the Mayor will not go over with the people there.

He will bring the ability and the willpower to kill more civilians and that is what Assad is banking on.

2. For several months now it has not seemed logical Assad would support Secterian Violence and most of us really would have bet he was scared to death of  the concept.

He knows it is one of the major triggers his business leaders as well as the UN have been worried about.

It has been seen as a sign he is losing control of the country.

It is understandable some of the groups would blame him for  promoting the violence, but that doesn’t mean he had given the order for Sectarian based assaults.

Yes, using his ‘Homegrown Thugs’ could be interpreted as Sectarian Violence, but his concept there is more based on terrorizing a group into compliance, not promoting a larger Sectarian issue.

Here is the scary part.

Is Assad on the brink of actually supporting Sectarian Violence?

Could it be he is so convinced he is losing control of the country that he is contemplating a “ Scorched Earth / My way on No Way / plan?

It should be something that will have to be taken into consideration from here on out.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201172543653293308.html





THE WEEK AHEAD!!

The week ahead has one common theme, a theme that has been going on for several months now.

The Drive of the Muslim Brotherhood for dominance in the Middle East and beyond!

Three of the four attached articles have ties to the efforts and desires of the MB.

The fourth is just as interesting as the other three and deals with Israel’s desperate actions to negate the Iranian nuclear program.

JORDAN:

If the US really did have a sit-down with the King of Jordan, then I am sure the issue of the Muslim Brotherhood and the impact of a collapsed Syria would have been discussed.

The concept of Jordan’s leader having to make concessions is common knowledge to everyone who has been paying attention to the Middle East for the last six months.

The real question becomes, especially from the King’s perspective, is that going to be enough?

Setting up elections that will obviously benefit the MB, or in this case the JMB, is the only end result  the MB will settle for.

These are the ‘ground rules’ the MB set up for Egypt.

These will be the rules the SMB will set up for Syria.

These will be the ground rules for any government the MB brings down in the Middle East or North Africa.

Now I know some will jump up and make the same old worn out statement, “ the MB is not the MB of old”, or they will react with, “ the MB only represents a small proportion of the potential voting populous… bla… bla…. Bla…”

I don’t buy it and most of us who have been watching the Middle East for a long time don’t buy it ether.

The MB is the backbone of the Arab Spring now, and that may not sit well with the liberal, academia world.

Knowing all of this, the King of Jordan is about to make the most basic of mistakes and thereby play right into the hands of the MB.

He will insist that ‘change’ must take place slowly and only after deliberate, detailed planning.

We all know how this game is played now, when this approach is taken by entrenched governments.

As for Jordan and the issue of joining the GCC, I would strongly suggest the King find a way to make this happen sooner rather than he probably would like.

Saudi has reached out to Jordan for a reason, but who knows how long that will last.

As soon as the Saudi’s see the King of Jordan beginning to slip into the same reactionary mode all the others have done, they may change their minds.

As has always been the case, there is strength in numbers and Jordan joining the GCC fits that concept.

So, Is Jordan in as much trouble as the article states?

The only answer to that question that matters is the King’s answer.

Does trouble in Jordan equate into future trouble for Israel and the PA issue?

Absolutely!

I said this way back in February.

The ‘end state’ of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / is violence in Israel and potentially a Regional War.   

http://www.debka.com/article/21144/ 

SAUDI:

This article absolutely nails the issue at hand, but just spends way too much academic babble making the point.

Saudi is simply getting ready to appear as if they are simply enforcing ‘existing’ laws when the Arab Spring comes to Saudi.

It is a complete waste of time and will do nothing for the ‘hearts and minds’ campaign the Saudis so desperately need to win.

As a matter of fact, the feeble attempt to get such foolish laws on the books is a real indicator of just how entrenched Saudi is and will continue to be.

Saudi, Like Iran, will be slow to have the movement take roots inside the country, but it will happen and when it does, over aggressive ‘ laws’ will not save the government.

To put it simply, the laws this article talks about going to do nothing more than paint a picture of a desperate government that is paranoid beyond belief.

Oh ya.. … They are….

So, how does the MB play into this picture of Saudi’s future?

In reality, it will be no different than their actions in Eygpt, Syria, Jordan ect… ect..

They will set the ‘terms’ of change and those terms will be based on the values of the hardliners in Saudi.

Now; most would argue the hardliners already call many of the shots in Saudi.

The problem is, in their minds, it’s not good enough.

The King and the “Royals” are known for being too chummy with the West and that will be a huge part of their negotiation for “change”.

Moving Saudi to the far… far.. right.. is the goal and the King or his family can not survive such an event.

Now, like Egypt and Tunisia and Syria and Jordan, the MB will let the free thinking liberal Academics do all the hard…. Violent… bloody work and then sweep in to pick up the pieces.

Oh ya.. Ad Yemen to that list as well.

So, the short answer on the new Saudi ‘laws’; they simply show how out of touch Saudi is.

By the way, I find it interesting some say the King is taking such a hard stand on the Arab Spring issue to show the conservative religious leaders in his country how hard he is working to keep the movement from disrupting Saudi.

It’s that movement the MB is counting on…

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201172295845529521.html 

EGYPT:

I talked about this latest round of protest in Egypt several times this week, but let me drive home the basic theme.

It’s the MB!!!!!

Surprised?

Do I sound Muslim Brotherhood Phobic yet?

I really hope so.

Let me remind everyone what the purpose of this latest round of violence is really all about.

Broken record time now I know!!!

The MB needs continued near anarchy in order to reach it’s next phase of the ‘ Master Plan’.

The people of Egypt must lose confidence in the military’s ability to keep the government / revolution / moving forward.

The MB may talk as if they support the Egyptian Military, but that will come to an end at the right moment in time.

With over eighty million people growing tired of Egypt sitting in a pool of  social and economic quicksand, the concept of someone or some party leading them out of the ditch and back to the ‘ Greatness” Egypt once was is a powerful tool.

The MB has and still plans on being that “ tool” for the people of Egypt.

Everyday, there is some MB talking head on Al Jazeera spouting out the same party line.

“ The people of Egypt must be heard”!!!

What’s the old line, “ The greater the lie, the more often you must tell it”.

If you could sneak into the ‘war room’ of the MB and see the “ Master Plan” timeline, I bet it would show they are right on track.

If the Egyptian Military changes anything about the pending elections, the MB will turn on them with a vengeance.

They are close to doing so now and the Egyptian Military knows it.

Egypt is not out of the danger zone by any stretch of the imagination, but the MB has just about everything going their way even when it doesn’t look so.

As a matter of fact, that is exactly what they want.

They want to remain mostly off the radar, but in control of the radar.

P.S; I still get a kick out of seeing some of them wearing baseball caps!!!

Gee.. they look like such nice, understanding guys…

The “reformist” movement within their ranks must really be making headway; said Little Red Ridding Hood to the Wolf.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/20117231893185389.html  

IRAN:

Ok; here is the one article that doesn’t have the MB as the sinister center of attention..

As a matter of fact, this article relates to the one topic that could knock the whole MB

“ Master Plan” right off the map with little or no warning; although in the rubble of a regional war, I am confident the MB would be ready to stand up as the savior of the Arab / Muslim world… minus the smoldering hole that use to be called Iran.

If you were a Police Detective and you were assigned to figure out what happened to this Iranian Nuclear Scientist, what would be your first action?

If your answer was not, “I would investigate the Security detail assigned to this top government employee”, YOU ARE FIRED!!!

Before I even begin to talk about why this has happened, hint … a short conversation, I think we need to look at the complete inability of the Iranian Security Service to protect these individuals.

Remember the old saying, “fool me once shame on you…. Fool me twice … shame on me”..

Well, how about ‘Fool me four times?

I only hope the security around their plants is better than the ring of defense they place around their top scientific minds.

On the other hand, how good is good?

Lets not be foolish here.

The ability of the Iranian security detail to prevent the Israelis from killing key figures in Iran is non existent.

The Mosad is second to none when it comes to this type of mission.

Having said that, can anyone imagine the phone call to the Iranian leadership letting them know what had happened?

Where do you think the head of security for this detail is as of tonight?

Swimming with the fishes???

Ok, lets accept the complete ineptness of the Iranian security detachments.

Lets look at what this killing means.

The message sent by Israel here is crysital clear, not just to Iran, but to Russia and China as well.

Nothing is off the table when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining nukes.

Now, as an after thought; can you imagine being one of the key nuclear scientists left in Iran?

Who starts your car?

Who test your food?

Do you ever stop at a stop light again?

How do you feel about the so called security detail assigned to keep you and your family safe?

Psychological Warfare at it’s finest.

What impact this has on the overall status of the nuclear program is a good question.

How does Iran respond is even a better question?

I have to wonder, how many of these really smart scientist are left in Iran?

Perhaps when we see a ‘ found dead’ North Korean or Pakistanian   smart guy in or out of Iran, we will begin to see our answer.

I am sure of one thing.

It doesn’t matter who is helping them and it doesn’t matter where they are.

If Israel decides they must die in order to keep the Iranian government from getting nukes, then someone is going to end up dead.

All right, what should we look for this week?

Syria is and will remain the hot topic for this week.

Defections and rumors of defections are continuing to grow.

Where there is smoke… there is fire.

The firefight inside the Military Academy is not just a rumor.

If defection is an issue inside a organization this close to the Assad government, then that “smoke’ is about to burst through and turn into visible flames.

Add to that the continuing reports of sectarian violence and Syria continues to fly apart.

The question remains, as it has for months, what does Iran do to keep it from happening?

Old answers I know, but the problems of the Middle East are not changing.

What is changing is the anger and desperation of the people living there.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201172318727723775.html

            IRAN THREATENS IRAQ?

Pay close attention to what is being said here.

For Iran to send the message it will not tolerate Iraq actions on Iraqi soil has an message inside the message.

The PJAK camps are the issue and Iran well aware of the deeper political issues surrounding these camps.

A message to the Iraqi government right now is still actually a message to the US government.

A statement about the possible hostile actions against the PJAJ is really a message to the Kurds in general.

It’s an issue the Iranians are dealing with in Syria as well as in Iran.

The balancing act between Iran and the Kurds is far more complicated than the story of a few long term PJAK camps in Iraq.

Some might speculate that Iran is continuing to position itself for the ‘post US Iraq ‘.

Some might say Iran is sending the message there will be no ‘Kurdistan’ slicing up of Northern Iranian territory.

Some might even comment Iran is sending a message to Turkey on who is going to call the shots on the issue of the Kurds.

As for me, I think Iran is scared to death of the whole Kurdish issue.

They know the Kurds hold a key element to the potential downfall of Assad in Syria.

Iran understands if Assad falls, the possibility of a huge uptick in Kurdish resistance operations in Northern Iran is all but certain.

The idea of dealing with the Kurdish issue while they still can is the real issue.

So, does it make sense Iran would openly threaten military action on Iraqi soil knowing the US is still calling the shots?

Well, do you think that speaks to their level of fear of a future Kurdistan event?

I do..

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2011/07/20117221137864834.html



WHAT WILL FRIDAY BRING?

Rumors of defections inside the Syrian military continue to make there way to the media.

Add to this the ever increasing evidence of sectarian violence  and Friday’s typical spike in public revolt and you have a recipe for above average violence in the next 24 hrs.

So, are there any real changes in Syria that are worth talking about?

Yes.

The idea that verified sectarian violence is starting to take place is a real change from the past four months.

The prospect of such violence is far more unsettling to Assad and Iran than to the common outside observer.

Most of the violence that has taken place in Syria has been Assad forces on public protestors.

This week’s violence between, ‘groups’ is a shift that has long been considered a key indicator of a devolving   environment.

From Assad’s perspective, it is and has been critical to keep the rest of the world from believing the situation is getting out of control.

Reluctance to take coordinated action against the Syrian government is a political reality that Assad has benefited from.

A key sign the world may be approaching a point of not being able to deal with events in Syria with simple words or weak-kneed sanctions is exactly what started to take place in the past week.

It’s one thing for the government forces to reap death and destruction on the Syrian public, but when the public starts to deal such actions on itself, it’s a true sign to the rest of the world the Syrian government has lost control.

Friday may not be a day of ‘group on group’ violence.

The public may be preoccupied with the military and ‘Thugs’ trying to kill them.

But, when the military and ‘Thugs’ have departed, does the public begin to take revenge on it’s own population?

If this is truly what is starting to happen in Syria, then Civil War, the fear everyone has had, could become a reality.  





DON’T  TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE BALL!!!

Old, trashed centrifuges; new centrifuges….. how many are really working…. Ect… ect. 

The most important sentence in this story is the line about Iran hiding it’s nuclear mission behind the Arab Spring.

Back in February, I commented the number one advantage the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / was providing Iran was a distraction from its nuclear program.

Iran very well could have estimated the ability of the Arab Spring to bring about ‘change’ in Iran would take long enough that an undetected nuclear program would have time to reach its goal.

An even more sinister concept would be Iran would allow its Allies / Syria and Hezbollah / Lebanon / to fall victim to the movement as long as Iran gained the time it needed to achieve its nuclear goal.

To put it simply, Iran could be in a drag race to reach nuclear recognition before the streets of Tehran become the streets of Hama.

I must admit, even I was forgetting my own theory of Iran hiding behind the Arab Spring, until I read this article.

Is this theory really possible?

Yes, I believe it is!!!

The mad dash to open more centrifuges is not a attempt to recover from the virus, STUXNET,  that struck last year.

The mad dash is to become a recognized nuclear power before the Arab Spring strikes in Iran.

The issue of the Ahmadinejad versus Khamenei plays into this theory as well.

Remember, Ahamdinejad is a Nationalist and his theory is the Iranian people will take great pride in being the first nuclear Arab power in the Middle East.

He believes this is so true, that the support for Khamenei  will swing back to him if he is the one that takes credit for achieving nuclear status.

Centrifuge operations is more than just increased capability.

To Ahmadinejad, it’s the survival of his dream of  the next Persian Empire.

A nuclear Iran would take the wind right out of the Arab Spring’s sails.

Now, remember last night’s discussion.

Baer’s comment about the coming war with Israel fits this ‘theory’ as well.

If people like me can come to this conclusion, just think what paranoid leadership in Israel can come up with.

http://www.debka.com/article/21133/