WHAT CHANGED THIS WEEK IN SYRIA?

If you didn't notice, something changed this week with the events in Syria.

Damascus had a much larger part in the Friday demonstrations.

That was a very disturbing event for not only Assad, but for Iran as well.

In my opinion, it's just another nail in the coffin of the Syrian Government.

The real "Redline" as far as the Syrian Government and Iran are concerned is Damascus.

Protest there, large ones, push Assad to the point of total violence or capitulation.

Damascus joining in increasing numbers is a signal to the Sunni Businessmen that Assad can not salvage the government.  

So, what could be the next steps taken by Assad and Iran.

When you get right down to it, Iran has two options:

            1. Continue to support Assad and pray something happens that changes the            landscape.....  Distractions... never forget my theory of distractions.

            2. Begin to  salvage a relationship with the next government of Syria.

There is no option of military interdiction in Syria for the rest of the world to include Iran.

Rumors of Turkey setting up a 'protectorate / free zone / in Northern Syria is simply not realistic; not at this time.

Having said this, it is simply unrealistic that Iran will simply standby and watch Syria fall into Sectarian warfare of worse, the hands of the Sunni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

The risk of warfare / regional warfare, grows as Syria continues to fall apart.

Hezbollah hold on Lebanon will not last if it's support from Syria is cut off by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Iran will never have the tools it needs for a war with Israel if it loses both Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This is no longer about the people of Syria or Assad.

It is quickly becoming an issue of Regional Stability.

P.S.  The city of Hama / Hamah ( Spelling ) is now the Benghazi of Syria.

THE WEEK AHEAD:


Two events took place this week that are worthy of review.

SYRIA:

 The repercussions from Ambassador Ford's trip into Hama have not been witnessed yet.

 
The Iranian response, or lack thereof, is interesting.

I think the whole event caught them completely off guard.
(Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall )

The French Ambassador showing up only added fuel to the fire
and probably gave validity to Assad's 'Conspiracy' claim.

Iran will answer this event; it's just a matter of how they
do so.

 Interestingly, Turkey seems to have ' no comment' on the two Ambassador's
'visit' to Hama.

They were ether part of the plan or they were not.

My bet is they were and are part of the plan and their part was to
have no comment.

A few days ago I said  Assad, in my opinion, had no choice but to move on Hama.

I must admit, I'm not sure how he could pull that off now,
given the visit by the two Ambassadors.

I still believe Assad can't afford to have his own version
of Benghazi in Syria.

Yep; it's a mess and Assad probably has Iran very upset with
him for letting the two Ambassadors be seen in Hama.

One thing surly happened; the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood   became more embolden thanks to these two visits.

With the US announcement  of the pending discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood, I'm wondering  who the real message was for?

So, this week, look for two things.

1. Look for Assad's response to Hama and in
that response will be the reaction to the US "meddling "  in Hama.

                Does that mean he will
                punish Hama?

                I don't know that he can
                without making the decision to take the resistance  to a whole new level of violence.

2. Look for Iran to respond, perhaps
providing guidance to Assad on how to deal with   Hama.

                Oh, by the way; the Gaza Flotilla II event
                was a complete bust!

                That did not sit well with
                Iran. ( Another botched distraction)

                Iran will take that missed opportunity  into
                consideration as they decide on how to send a message to the US over the
                Ambassador Ford event.



EGYPT:

Five months ago, when the events in Egypt were finally
coming to a boiling point, I made the statement I was not sure if the people
of Egypt understood what they had achieved.

I think the Egyptian people are now very aware of what they
did and did not achieve.

They did manage to have Mubarak removed.

They did not manage to move the machine that really runs
Egypt.. The Egyptian Military!

This time around, the real change is the lack of 'trust' by
the Egyptian people with the Egyptian Military.

"Change" is a concept that usually has many different
meanings even to people who think they are in the same group.

The speed of "Change" is another concept that has many
definitions .

The young and the less educated usually believe change is a
concept based on days, weeks at the most.

The older and more educated people have been around long
enough to realize two things.

                1. "Change" doesn't always mean things are going to get better.

                2. "Change" can take years, not days, weeks or even months.

                                a. The larger the change, like the entire structure of a countries' government, is not
                                going to happen in five months, but don't tell that to the youth of Egypt!

So, what should we look for in the coming week?

Watch the Muslim Brotherhood's  actions.

From day one they realized they were not the cause of the " Arab Spring",
but they did quickly figure out how to exploit the disruption to bring about their ultimate goal of governmental change.

I am convinced the plot on their part has been to let Egypt flounder for
months and then, when the timing is right, step in and try to provide
'guidance' out of the anarchy.

It is no coincidence the MB decided to 'join', code for begin to manipulate,
the protest this week.

It is time for ' phase two' of the MB master plan in Egypt.

Yes, the youth movement inside the MB is a distraction to the ' master
plan', but that faction inside the MB is being used to their advantage.

As long as you have clueless Western Journalist talking about the "new MB"
and the youth movement inside of it and how that youth movement may
'transform' the MB, ( Insert laughter here), the real leadership of the MB will see the whole process executing according to plan.

The MB knows the next stage is very.. Very important!

They MUST get the Egyptian Public to lose faith in the Egyptian Military!

The MB cannot execute the final takeover phase until the people abandon
the military.

One of two things is going to happen if they truly start to pull their support.

                1. The Military will become violent in a desperate attempt to keep
                Egypt from falling apart. ( Smiles in Iran and Syria at that point.)

                2. The Military will make a move on the MB and risk the public
                completely falling in line with the Brotherhood.  

Everyone needs to remember.

Egypt is not Syria, Yemen, Lebanon or Bahrain.

Five months ago, the world was stunned to see Egypt fall into near anarchy.

To watch it happen again will be even more unsettling to the region.

Anarchy or near Anarchy is spelled " Opportunity" in Iran and Syria.

Yep. Iran and Assad would just love to see Egypt slip into madness.

Remember my theory about ' Distractions'.

FINAL NOTE



YEMEN:

If anyone is watching the events in Yemen, it's Saudi.

It may not happen this week, but the battle for Aden is coming and several
key countries know the implications of Aden falling into the 'wrong hands'.

It's Summer and the Arab Spring, PS.. I still call it the Tunisian Virus, is
not sizzling  out as some Western Talking Heads think.

That sizzling sound.............. is a fuse!!!

US IN A BOLD MOVE, BUT WHAT WILL THE REACTION BE?

Ambassador Ford's trip to Hama, knowing what Friday afternoon,( after prayer) is going to have a dramatic impact on how Assad deals with events in Hama.

If the Ambassador is still there once the late afternoon crowds form, something you can bank will happen  once when the people find out the US Ambassador is there, the response by the Syrian government will be interesting if not dangerous.

Just think of the phone call from Assad to Iran, informing them the US Ambassador is in Hama and will be there on Friday.

This was a bold move on the US's part and one I hope they have thought through.

Assad will demand he know the Ambassador's exact location if he is still in the city.

I am not sure Assad was ready to take decisive action in Hama given the troop strength it requires, but even the simple, simple for cold blooded killers, act of shooting people in the streets becomes more than complicated with the US Ambassador in the city.

I can't think of a more  creditable 'witness' than an Ambassador to a potential "Crime Against Humanity".

It is very possible this will completely changes Assad's game plan for Hama, at least for the short term.  

I said it last night and I will repeat it tonight.

For Assad not to deal with Hama, insures he will have his own version of Benghazi in Syria!

The "Resistance" will have its base camp; one that is a  Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / SMB / stronghold.

I can't tell you how pi.... off Iran must be right now.

I really hope the US Department of State thought this one all the way through!

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/2011780473138345.html

AHMADINEJAD MAY BE CHANGING FEATHERS!!

An interesting event in Iran that might easily go overlooked.



Remember my theory of Ahmadinejad possibly trying to survive his
marginalization by Khamenei.



As a Persian Nationalist, he has been feared by the clerics and Khamenei for
over a year now.



The speculation that he may soon go the way of past Iranian Presidents is
becoming more and more prevalent in the press.



http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/201162994514399969.html



Several months ago I commented Ahmadinejad may make the decision to side
with the pending Youth Movement growing throughout the Middle East.



As change sweeps the Middle East and he watches Syria begin to fall, he
knows he has the opportunity to outlast Khamenei and the Clerics; who he
can't stand.



He understands the young people of Iran are far more likely to support a
Nationalistic Iranian movement than a clerical dictatorship.



By pushing back on the issue of gender segregated Colleges, he just may be
beginning his campaign to win over the hearts and minds of the youth of
Iran.



I know he would have a huge hill to climb to achieve this goal, but it's a
beginning.



Ahmadinejad is on his last leg and he knows it.



As for the pending Youth Movement in Iran; " Better the Devil you know than
the Devil you don't know.. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend".



Stack this on top of the STL issue and the events in Syria and you get a
very nervous group of Clerics hiding behind Khamenei.



Interesting!!

Here is the article:







Ahmadinejad  opposes sex segregation at universities

TEHRAN | AFP - July 06, 2011



Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday ordered the immediate
cancellation of plans to segregate sexes at some universities, blasting the
move as "shallow and unwise," his website reported.

"In some universities, single-gender courses and classes are implemented
without considering their consequences," the president said in a letter to
the ministers of higher education and health published by his website.

"It is necessary that these shallow and unwise actions are prevented
immediately," Ahmadinejad said against the backdrop of a lively debate in
media and among officials over reports of plans to divide female and male
students.

The order comes amid a campaign by the ultra-conservative and religious
camps dominating the Iranian regime for the abolition of co-education in
universities for the new academic year.

On Tuesday, higher education minister Kamran Daneshjoo denied having any
plans for gender segregation at universities.

"Men and women must sit in separate rows in university," he said, while
insisting his ministry was pressing ahead with plans for the "Islamisation"
of the education system.

"We do not want to create a wall (but) we are against the mingling of men
and women based on Western styles," Daneshjoo said, adding students would
not be prevented from "cooperation when it comes to acquisition of science."

THE STORMING OF HAMA??? WE SHALL SEE!

Assad knows his Father's history all too well.

The pending event in Hama is unlike any action he has taken so far.

A few people have already picked up on the concept that Assad could risk losing the UN support of Russia and China if he repeats his Father's actions in Hama.

I would almost bet you that theory is absolutely true.

As for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, it has probably been their plan all along to make a stand in Hama.

If not for the symbolism, then for the hometown support they know they will have there.

Assad has another problem on his hands.

He doesn't have the troop strength to take real control of a city as large as Hama!

He will have to bring in additional units perhaps even the dreaded 4th Division, thus jeopardizing his ability to control the capital.  

You may be starting to get the picture here of what the SMB plans on executing.

Spreading the Syrian Army so thin it cannot  cover all the uprisings at once.

For Assad to truly take control of Hama, he will have to triple if not quadruple the size of the force he currently has on hand.

This could explain why his forces are at the outskirts of the city.

They don't have the strength to move in, but they can send "scouts" and aircraft to assess the overall situation.

Before he commits to moving what reserves he has left into position to take Hama, he has to decide that he wants to take it!

Frankly, I don't see how he cannot move on Hama.

It will become the Benghazi of Syria if he does not take action.

It appears more and more that Assad is doomed!

The question continues to be, what does Iran do about it?

The STL issue in Lebanon is growing more disturbing to Iran with each passing day.

The time of being able to utilize Hezbollah for some diversion is ether growing very close or it is slipping away; depending on how the Hezbollah leadership assess the situation.

Hama and the actions in Hama could very well be the tipping point for Syria and Assad and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / SMB / knows it!

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/07/05/report-syrian-siege-may-be-crime-against-humanity/

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/07/05/syria.unrest/index.html?hpt=wo_c1

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=228060

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/05/us-syria-hama-idUSTRE7644L020110705

A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS!

This Picture is unlike any other taken in Syria in the past four months of protest.

It is impossible for Assad and Iran to argue the number of people attending the protest now.

yesterdays turnout was more than frightening to Assad and Iran.

It is their true first glimpse at the future of not just Syria, but Iran as well.

Something else seems to have happened that is absolutely a disaster for Iran.

It appears the second 'blockade' busting flotilla has been disrupted, at least for now.

DEBKA story about the possible Alliance between the US, Turkey and Greece has some merit to it, but I am not sold the 'Mastermind' behind the operation is a well oiled US Foreign Affairs, operation.

My belief what we are seeing is an mission  spearheaded by Turkey.

Remember what I have been saying about the two real visions in the Middle East; one being the new Persian Empire with Iran atop the throne and the other being the new Ottoman Empire with Turkey sticking it's finger in the EU's eye!

Turkey is the one that stands to gain by disrupting the flotilla heading to Gaza / Israel.

As the DEBKA story makes mention of; oh by the way the Western Press is out to lunch on why the flotilla was disrupted--- go figure, Turkey is taking the lead in Middle Eastern events and the US is watching it take place.

Just look at the Turkish interaction  on the Syrian event.

Now, Turkey, with some help I'm sure, organizes the sinking of the Hamas / Iranian / flotilla.

What is interesting is the actions of Greece!

Greece and Turkey are not known for holding hands on too many issues.

So why does Greece help Turkey show it's dominance in Middle Eastern Affairs?

My guess is the relationship between Greece and the EU is more than just strained given the financial status of Greece.

Greece may be sending a message to the EU about where it's alliance may land in the future.

 For years now, everyone has watched the arrogant attitude the EU has had for Turkey.

So, this whole flotilla event has been far more interesting than a few peaceniks sailing on the Love boat.

I would have loved to have heard the hallways in Tehran when they found out the ships were being delayed in Greece!

Don't forget, Iran needed this event.

400,000 people in the streets of Syria and Turkey continues to dictate what actions will take place in the Middle East!!!

So far the score reads as follows:

Ottoman Empire            1

Persian Empire             0

 http://www.debka.com/article/21080/

IT JUST KEEPS GETTING WORSE AND WORSE FOR ASSAD!

Well, true to their word, the United Nations Special Tribunal on Lebanon  / STL / handed down the first set of indictments today.

Badreddine seems to be the 'big fish' in the first list of names.

I  say first list because the STL intends on announcing several list.

As some of the media coverage stated today, Badreddine is a real Hero in the ranks of Hezbollah and implicating  him is a real hot issue for Hezbollah.

Mikati's statement today was cryptic and weak at best!

In the next day or so, he and the leadership of Hezbollah will respond.

Mikati will take the soft, 'we must do what is right for Lebanon' approach.

Don't look for Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, to be as impartial.

"It's a huge US / Israeli plot", will be the basic tone coming out of Nasrallah's mouth.

Two real questions need to be answered.

1.  Who shows up on the next list of names?

            Are there Syrian links?

2. What does the Sunni population of Lebanon do?

If Mikati tries to disrupt the process, Lebanon may slide into violence.

That is exactly what most outsiders, and even most Lebanese, have feared for months now.

Let's look at this event through a different set of glasses.

Israel now has two huge events potentially on their hands.

1. The second round of Gaza blockade busting ships sailing soon.

2.  The potential for Hezbollah to implode inside Lebanon.

I am sure the consultation between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah is a hot topic right about now.

The fact that Israel has warned Hezbollah and Assad on the issue of  potential actions by Hezbollah is a sign of what Israel thinks the response might be.

The STL was going to be a bad situation for Lebanon, Syria and Iran and they have known that for months.

Now that it is finally here, what is the outcome?

The Lebanese government has thirty days to respond to the STL.

I am not sure it will take that long to see how Iran and Syria try and react to the news.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011630103132763170.html