A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS!

This Picture is unlike any other taken in Syria in the past four months of protest.

It is impossible for Assad and Iran to argue the number of people attending the protest now.

yesterdays turnout was more than frightening to Assad and Iran.

It is their true first glimpse at the future of not just Syria, but Iran as well.

Something else seems to have happened that is absolutely a disaster for Iran.

It appears the second 'blockade' busting flotilla has been disrupted, at least for now.

DEBKA story about the possible Alliance between the US, Turkey and Greece has some merit to it, but I am not sold the 'Mastermind' behind the operation is a well oiled US Foreign Affairs, operation.

My belief what we are seeing is an mission  spearheaded by Turkey.

Remember what I have been saying about the two real visions in the Middle East; one being the new Persian Empire with Iran atop the throne and the other being the new Ottoman Empire with Turkey sticking it's finger in the EU's eye!

Turkey is the one that stands to gain by disrupting the flotilla heading to Gaza / Israel.

As the DEBKA story makes mention of; oh by the way the Western Press is out to lunch on why the flotilla was disrupted--- go figure, Turkey is taking the lead in Middle Eastern events and the US is watching it take place.

Just look at the Turkish interaction  on the Syrian event.

Now, Turkey, with some help I'm sure, organizes the sinking of the Hamas / Iranian / flotilla.

What is interesting is the actions of Greece!

Greece and Turkey are not known for holding hands on too many issues.

So why does Greece help Turkey show it's dominance in Middle Eastern Affairs?

My guess is the relationship between Greece and the EU is more than just strained given the financial status of Greece.

Greece may be sending a message to the EU about where it's alliance may land in the future.

 For years now, everyone has watched the arrogant attitude the EU has had for Turkey.

So, this whole flotilla event has been far more interesting than a few peaceniks sailing on the Love boat.

I would have loved to have heard the hallways in Tehran when they found out the ships were being delayed in Greece!

Don't forget, Iran needed this event.

400,000 people in the streets of Syria and Turkey continues to dictate what actions will take place in the Middle East!!!

So far the score reads as follows:

Ottoman Empire            1

Persian Empire             0

 http://www.debka.com/article/21080/

IT JUST KEEPS GETTING WORSE AND WORSE FOR ASSAD!

Well, true to their word, the United Nations Special Tribunal on Lebanon  / STL / handed down the first set of indictments today.

Badreddine seems to be the 'big fish' in the first list of names.

I  say first list because the STL intends on announcing several list.

As some of the media coverage stated today, Badreddine is a real Hero in the ranks of Hezbollah and implicating  him is a real hot issue for Hezbollah.

Mikati's statement today was cryptic and weak at best!

In the next day or so, he and the leadership of Hezbollah will respond.

Mikati will take the soft, 'we must do what is right for Lebanon' approach.

Don't look for Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah, to be as impartial.

"It's a huge US / Israeli plot", will be the basic tone coming out of Nasrallah's mouth.

Two real questions need to be answered.

1.  Who shows up on the next list of names?

            Are there Syrian links?

2. What does the Sunni population of Lebanon do?

If Mikati tries to disrupt the process, Lebanon may slide into violence.

That is exactly what most outsiders, and even most Lebanese, have feared for months now.

Let's look at this event through a different set of glasses.

Israel now has two huge events potentially on their hands.

1. The second round of Gaza blockade busting ships sailing soon.

2.  The potential for Hezbollah to implode inside Lebanon.

I am sure the consultation between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah is a hot topic right about now.

The fact that Israel has warned Hezbollah and Assad on the issue of  potential actions by Hezbollah is a sign of what Israel thinks the response might be.

The STL was going to be a bad situation for Lebanon, Syria and Iran and they have known that for months.

Now that it is finally here, what is the outcome?

The Lebanese government has thirty days to respond to the STL.

I am not sure it will take that long to see how Iran and Syria try and react to the news.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011630103132763170.html

TWO ISSUES THAT SPEAK TO ONE TOPIC.... ASSAD'S FUTURE...

The first article simply reminds everyone how Israel views statements that come from their enemies.

The concept of Assad lashing out at Israel to save his own hide has been talked about for over two months now.

Assad utilizing Hezbollah to create a distraction in Lebanon in my opinion has better than a fifty.. fifty chance of happening

As I keep saying, both Assad and Hezbollah will not make a move without the blessing of Iran.

The fact that Israel feels compelled to let Assad know the price he will pay if Hezbollah does take action should not be and will not be overlooked by Assad, Hezbollah and Iran.

Israel is simply saying, "we are ready and you will pay the price".

Making the threat directly to Assad is a very clever way to get at a person who, in my opinion, lacks self-confidence to think hard about their future actions.

If Iran tells Hezbollah to take action, and Assad understands his head is on the line, hesitation could be a crucial factor.

The second story address the Hezbollah issue from a different direction.

The STL is not going to be ignored!

Hezbollah cannot wish the results away.

For the US to make the statement it doesn't matter what the new cabinet in Lebanon does, the STL will be followed up  on is just as bold as the Government of Israel telling Assad he will be held personally responsible for Hezbollah's actions!

Two hard hitting messages delivered  at a critical point in time!

One topic, Assad and what he needs to think about.

Pressure is something Assad doesn't need right now, but pressure is what he gets.

He wants to be a 'leader', well it comes with the title.

Let's see what he does.

PS. Pay attention to North Korea!!

Something 'funny' is going on over there and it may not be good.

I have always wondered about the 'relationship between North Korea and Iran.

Don't forget my theory of Iran needing a distraction!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=227061 

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/29/us-envoy-hezbollah-deflecting-attension-from-its-internal-tension/   

A DOUBLE STANDARD THAT IS MORE THAN DOUBLE!

Lebanon's current government  policy of ' No statehood for Palestinian Lebanese, even when they are born in Lebanon', is the height of hypocrisy.

Everyone knows the real story; nobody wants the Palestinians to think they can permanently stay in their country.

Even the ones that are second generation Palestinians are not allowed to have citizenship.

Not in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt ect... ect...

Why?

They will all tell you they do it for the good of the Palestinian people!!!

Ya... Right!!!

They all make the lame argument that if they are granted citizenship, they will never convince the rest of the world Palestine must have its independent state.

What they are really trying to  say is, " we don't want them here".

If you don't believe me, let me ask you a few simple questions?

1. Why are they forced to live in Refugee Camps?

            For their own safety??? Laughable!!

2. Who  has killed more Palestinians, the Israelis or the Jordanians?

            If you don't know the real answer, ask the King about his Father and the  Refugee Camps in         Jordan years ago.

The simple truth of the matter is the Palestinians are seen as the "Gypsies" of the Middle East and nobody wants them living next-door to them.

Sounds ugly, but it's true and they all know it!

Here is the funny part, in the US, a Palestinian can move here, buy a home and their kids will be just as American as anyone else.

The Middle East knows that and they hate it and that is one of the many reasons why the US is hated.

For all the name calling and finger pointing that goes on in today's world, the US is still the land of opportunity.

Oh ya; please don't try and tell me the American Indians live in Refugee Camps.

They live on their own land and can live anywhere in the country if they wish!

As Al Jazeera, I am sure they would have filmed a story about them not being able to move if this was true.

So, the next time someone says how unfair the PA issue is, ask them why they are not allowed to have citizenship in the countries some of them have been staying for over fifty years?

Ask them why they are not allowed to own a house in Lebanon or Jordan?

Stick to the truth and watch how fast the people you are talking to change the subject.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/28/mikati-lebanon-rejects-the-naturalization-of-palestinians/

ASSAD'S ATTEMPT TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER     

It appears the meeting today in Damascus was seen for exactly what it was, an attempt by Assad's government to divide the opposition.

What I found frightening was the Western media depiction of the event only being a ploy by Assad to show he willingness to 'talk'.

Assad's goal was more than just window dressing for the media.

His, or his brother's, goal was and is to divide the opposition.

Assad knows the one real weakness in the Syrian revolt is the lack of a centralized movement.

If Iran has coached him on anything it is to keep the rebellion from truly forming a allegiance.  

Assad also knows today  'stunt' can possibly go a long ways to showing the Business Class, Sunni leadership that things are still manageable.

Yep, today's event was a two part plan.

One; create division amongst the opposition.

Two; prove to the key supporters of the current Syrian government all is not lost, yet!

So; will it work?

I think the first part of the operation may have some impact.

The fact that some of the rebellion leadership refused to show up is a good sign from Assad's perspective.

How they respond to today's events will be interesting to watch. ( The opposition that is.)

 Part two of this event will probably not net Assad the results he needs.

The Sunni Business Class leadership is worried about one major issue; the Syrian economy.

Pulling these group into a Sectarian fight has been and will continue to be difficult for the opposition.

Having said that, Assad knows all too well, if these key business leaders think the economy of Syria is on the brink, and it is, then they may jump ship.

For them to do so would spell the end for Assad and he knows it.

I don't look for Assad to take this quietly if it does happen.

If you see Assad making a move on the key leaders of this group, you know he believes the end is near.

Today was an interesting day to the casual observer  watching events in Syria.

To the rest of us, today was yet another desperate attempt by Assad to hold onto power.

Did it work?

Lets watch the next few days and see what comes of this 'stunt'.

THE KEY EVENTS OF THIS COMING WEEK.

YEMEN:

What seems to be constantly lost in the story of Yemen, is the headway al-Qaeda is making in the South.

It is not out of the question the world is going to wake up soon to realize the real story in Yemen is not the condition of Saleh and his possible return to, but the huge gains al Qaeda continues to make as they take over Southern Yemen.

The military is completely preoccupied with holding on to the capital and trying to second guess who will lead the country.

They simply do not have the strength and mindset to recapture the territory lost in Southern Yemen.

Yemen is well on its way to becoming the new al Qaeda stronghold!

This is an issue the Saudi's will not overlook but will struggle to find an answer for.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011626201428809641.html  

ISRAEL:

The second flotilla issue will become a huge topic of conversation this week.

Israel knows they cannot afford the catastrophe of the last event to be repeated.

Warning the media to stay away is a very worrisome sign.

If Iran has trouble makers prepositioned on these ships, the event could get out of hand.

What Iran plans on gaining from making this event into yet another violent episode is beyond me.

How many times does the Iranian leadership have to announce they hate Israel?

I think the rest of the world has figured that out!

If Iran is looking for a 'distraction' for Syria, this next flotilla will simply not rise to the occasion.

The media may take their eyes off of Syria for a day at the most, but Assad is simply too far gone and too desperate for the media to back up now.

Still, the pending ' round two' of ships and the IDF is going to be a hot spot worthy of watching closely.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201162611220564941.html 

IRAN:

I again find it completely laughable that Ahmadinejad and his 'Boss' both gave statements this week about the US and Europe being Terrorist organizations.

Of course as is always the case, the statements the two of them make are not meant for public consumption in the US or even Europe.

They play to the Arab / Muslim public so the truth has nothing to do with the statement.

I was interested in the concept of this " International Conference on Terrorism" in Tehran.

My hunch is Iran is in the early phases of trying to find a new list of 'partners' given the sinking ship Assad is sailing on.

I also find it interesting that both Ahmadinejad, commonly known by me as the ' Mad Genie', and Khamenei  both have given speeches on how the US and Europe are the real Terrorist in the world so close in time to each other.

The theory the two of them are in a power struggle is nearly a fact, so suddenly they both sing off the same sheet of music?

After watching the two of them shoot their mouths off this week, I am a little bothered by Nasrallah's statements of a possible war with Israel to save Assad.

As I said before, Nasrallah and Assad do not make public comments without getting the green light from Iran.

So, if Iran is building a case for a 'road to war' with Israel, something they would have to do if they wanted any chance of Arab / Muslim public support, then all of this may make sense.

As is always the case, Iran is the most dangerous topic in the Middle East.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/06/25/iran-supreme-leader-accuses-us-terrorism/ 

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201162510031467425.html  

SYRIA:

Assad's Generals talking about their military taking losses from the so called, "Terrorist" ,  a word Assad and the Iranian leaders seem stuck on right now, is an interesting twist.

Ether Assad is attempting to explain why he is reacting so harshly or his military leaders are trying to explain why so many dead military members are out there.

How else could Syria explain the members that have reportedly revolted and been killed?

Assad's worries are only going to get worse as Turkey run's out of patients with him.

I keep saying Iran will not let Assad fall, but the reality is Iran may have to go to war in order to save Assad and Syria and I'm not sure that is a price they are willing to pay just yet.

Lebanon and the STL indictment list is going to push this issue even further and this may happen this week.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/26/5-killed-as-syrian-forces-push-towards-lebanese-border/    

STL MAKES A BRILLIANT MOVE ON HEZBOLLAH.

The UN Special Tribunal / STL /  on Lebanon announcement they may release their indictments in the next week is simply a marvelous maneuver that will infuriate the Hezbollah leadership!  

The new Cabinet formed last week at the pressure of Iran and Assad, will not have time to wordsmith some cryptic way of saying the STL findings are not legitimate.

I can assure you this has the midnight oil burning in Iran and in Syria.

Add to this brilliant political move the fact the indictments might name members of Assad's government and we could well see a hostile reaction that was not previously predicted.

Lebanon is simmering in the background of the Syrian event and the fear that  Lebanon might turn violent is not out of the question.

If this story is correct and the UN pushes the STL report before the Hezbollah backed Cabinet is able to rebuff the report, then we need to be ready for violence in Lebanon.

Don't forget the next Gaza Blockade run is coming perhaps within a week.

Between this pending event and the possibility of Lebanon exploding, Israel is going to have a very hectic two weeks.

Stay up to date on this STL issue.

It has a web site that is updated often.

I have said for several months now the STL findings / indictments / are going to add a whole new twist to the Syrian / Iran issues.

Things could get out of hand by the end of the month.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/24/stl-indictment-may-be-announced-between-july-2-4/