BAHRAIN; SO WHAT DID STANDING DOWN GET THEM?

Don’t’ believe for a minute the leadership in Bahrain has decided to negotiate with the Shi.

Lifting the emergency was nothing more than a simple placating   move to the ‘powers’ who are questioning Bahrain’s actions.

The problem  was the Shi knew it was coming.

They wasted no time stepping  back out into the streets and unfortunately, the Bahrain Police pickup right where they left off as well!

There is one real difference.

The ‘Peninsula Shield Forces’ are still in Bahrain and will be for the foreseeable future.

That message is still out there for Iran to see and think about.

Bahrain’s leadership may have taken anther factor into consideration, other than showing the West they were willing to give in to some degree.

It could be the GCC saw an opportunity for Bahrain to relax just a little given the situation in Syria was sucking up all the bandwith / Media.

It could also be the GCC and their ‘friends’ might have wanted to ‘smoke out’ potential Iranian instigators by letting them take to the streets again.

Sometimes one has to make a move in order to see one’s opponent’s next move!

Where events in Bahrain go now is an issue that will need to be watched.

Again, the media eyes are on Syria and Yemen and Al Jazeera is not over zealous about covering events in Bahrain as long as the deaths are avoided.

If Bahrain did it’s homework over the past two months, the authorities may have an idea of who needs to be watched and who may need to be brought in for ‘ questioning’!

Is Bahrain out of the woods?

Absolutely not!!!

Yet, if they can manage to stay the fourth level story for the media behind, Syria, Yemen, Libya, then they may have bought themselves a period of time and who knows what will happen in the Middle East over a short period of time.



IS THIS THE FACE THAT WILL BRING DOWN ASSAD?

I have no doubt the story of this young boy’s death is a tragedy and I also have no doubt the story is being exploited by the opposition.

So; the question becomes, does this story light the fire of resistance for those that have sat on the sidelines?

The news of the opposition meeting in Turkey to form a form of provisional government is going to set Assad’s hair on fire.

As Assad watches the story of this young boy continue to grow in the international press, along with the knowledge Turkey is to the point of allowing the resistance to meet in Turkey, has to have him nearing the edge of panic at just the moment in time some in the press where saying Syria may have passed the crisis point.

What he needs to be asking himself is how a 13 year old boy is kept, questioned and then murdered by the government of Syria.

There is a difference between tyrannical government and pure evil..

Murdering a 13 year old is pure evil!!!

Sometime in the next twenty four hours or so, the Syrian government will have to put some story out stating they didn’t do it or ‘some other element of the resistance is responsible.

Assad can not even come close to excusing this vial act.

Tunisia had its merchant.

Iran had its young female student.

Syria may very well have its face of resistance.

The next day or two will tell.

SIDE NOTE:

Pay close attention to the stories about ‘refugees’ from Syria and the impact they are having on Lebanon’s border towns.

Tension is running high in Lebanon.

More and more of Lebanese leadership is talking about the dangers to Lebanon’s stability.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/201153185927813389.html



SPAIN:  AN INTERESTING MUTATION OF THE TUNISIAN VIRUS!

I’ve found several interesting aspects to the events in Spain.

Similarities to the Arab Spring?

I have had the opinion for several weeks now, the Arab Spring continues to be have several parties attempting to hijack it’s ‘cause’. 

        In the beginning most believed it was movement based on the social injustices of Tyrannical Governments and the suppression of freedom.

      Iran quickly attempted to take credit for the “Arab Uprising”, but most didn’t listen.

      The West was totally unprepared for the events in the Middle East and North Africa.

      China and Russia’s paranoia grew virtually overnight.   

      China began to fill its ‘holding centers’ with just about anyone who had a web page!

      Some looked to the West for support and some looked to the West with amazement!

      ‘Old Friends’ suddenly couldn’t get anyone to answer the phone.

       The Paranoia of the Western World was different than that of China and Russia, but paranoia was still there.

       The so called ‘experts’ where dying to get on the major networks ready to give their steadfast opinion of what the future would hold for the Middle East and North Africa.

       Who would fall and who would survive was the high paying opinioned topic from that point on.

       Whose Crystal Ball could tell the rest of the world what was going to happen?

      

       Was it the beginning of a Sectarian War in the Middle East?

      Was it going to lead to another Arab Israeli Conflict such at the 1967 war?

      Was this really all about Democracy and the human spirit’s drive to be free?

Spain is the attempted mutation of the next opportunistic group!

      The world of Socialistic academia has finally begun to play their part in the whole event; or so they hope!

      Tunisia and Egypt may have had a youthful element to their uprisings, but they were not founded in Department Chairs and Thesis papers.

Lord knows Yemen and Syria are not about College Professors inspiring young people to take to the streets, but that is not stopping the Socialist elite from taking their shot at owning the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus.

Spain and possibly other European Nations may now be on the “lets act like the Middle East” list.

One has to ask the question?

Has it become vogue to talk about “Revolution”?

Notice in the attached article, the author hints to ‘people in London and in France’.

I’m not sure anyone in Yemen gives a rat’s ass about College Kids in London or the unemployment rate of educated twenty year olds in France.

But, that won’t stop left leaning Professors from making their rather boring lives far more exciting by spinning up a large population of hormonal kids.

Spend a few impressionable years telling a 2/3^rd empty brain the future is bleak, and they will believe it.

Arab Fundamentalist have not corned the market on ‘brainwashing’ young people.

Spain is not the Middle East!

Spain is yet another example of how complex the 21^st century world is becoming.

Social injustice is a blanket statement that has different meanings to just about anyone that is asked.

Can we see a Sectarian War in the Middle East?

Yes!!

Can we see a conflict over the issue of Israel and the PA?

Yes!!

Can we see the  Gulf States / GCC / come under increasing pressure for ‘change’?

Yes!!

Can we see Universities try and become the breading ground for social unrest?

Yes!!

Oh ya; this is the one that has China up at night!!!

     

What we have with Spain, is the beginning of a new movement trying to hijack the “Arab Spring”.

And they have a powerful partner with Al Jazeera.

The funny thing is, this group doesn’t understand they will not exist in the version of the world the MB envisions.

Side note:

Spain’s Campus party resulted in the rightwing party gaining a great deal of power; a fact that did not go unnoticed by the author. 

That will not happen again!!

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/20115267575844603.html



ADD YEMEN TO THE ‘CIVIL WAR’ LIST:

Civil war is nothing new to Yemen, but this time around the repercussions are much different.

I said this a few nights ago, but the second Egypt announced Mubarak was going to stand trial; the decision was made for every other entrenched leader in the Middle East and North Africa.

By the way; I would recommend the media stop referring to just North Africa.

The ‘Tunisian Virus’ is showing signs of spreading to other sections of Africa and Europe.

Remember two nights ago I stated I was going to address the issue of Spain.

That will be tomorrow nights topic, but for now I’m going to stick with the issues of Yemen.

Tribal factions are the core issue in Yemen.

The issue of a leader who has been in power for years is simply an excuse to get the whole process going.

A little over a year ago, Yemen was on the brink of Civil War and it was Saudi that decided to take action to keep things from getting out of hand.

If anyone was foolish enough to think for a single minute the removal of Saleh was going to lead to some nirvana ‘Democracy’, then they should look into buying swampland in Arizona.

For those of you not failure with the state of Arizona, it’s a Desert!! NO SWAMP LAND!!

Yemen has every chance in the world of becoming the next Somalia.

 Yemen will become a nation of total anarchy with AQAP and other fanatical groups, running wild throughout the country side.

Saudi’s ability to stop a full scale Civil War in Yemen is simply unachievable.

The US’s counter terrorism operations there will come to a complete standstill.

The good news is, that will not stop the US from attacking training camps!!

Air Power is such a huge strategic advantage.

So, to put it simply, Yemen is the newest hotspot and it has no signs of cooling off for the foreseeable future.

Good news for Iran and Syria!!!

Everyday the media is not demanding to broadcast live from some Syrian town, the better off Assad and Iran are.

Iran will take advantage of events in Yemen for as long as it can.

The blood will flow and the media will be able to get to it; along with YOUTUBE and that is just what Iran and Syria need right now.

There is one possible temporary distraction coming this weekend.

Rafah!!!

I don’t anticipate violence from the events this Saturday, but I would not rule out Iran trying to make some event take place.

The MB in Egypt will go to great lengths to keep that from happening.

The media will cover the event, but without any pending blood, they will shift quickly back to Yemen.

Blood sells..



RAFAH AND HOW ISRAEL WILL REACT:

Egypt has stated for several months now they were going to reopen the entrance to Gaza at Rafah and now it appears it’s going to happen.

So what does it mean?

To Israel it is just another indicator of the changing relationship with Egypt.

It also means the tolerance of Hamas is going to shrink.

For Egypt it is a calculated risk that could draw the reaction of the US.

Egypt needs financial support and even if the President wants to give it to them, it must still make it past Congress.

For Hamas, it’s a classic example of ‘be careful what you ask for’.

So, will the Rafah become a benchmark event?

It’s hard to tell, but I will assure everyone it’s a dangerous indicator of where things are heading.

The question becomes, does anyone other than Egypt try to take advantage of the event?

We must assume Hamas knew of the pending announcement before Egypt went public.

We must assume Hamas and Egypt, by way of the MB, have a plan for this event.

Does the fact that Egypt decided to open this point into Gaza indicate the influence of the MB in Egyptian government?

Remember, there is no love between the Egyptian military and the MB; or at lease there didn’t use to be?



SNAPSHOT ON A FEW HOT ISSUES:

Yemen:

 As predicted, Yemen continued down a dangerous path in the past 24 hrs.

How much the fighting escalates is hard to tell right now, but the possibility of slowing things down anytime soon are not good.

If the fighting escalates to military units on military units, then the next phase could be much worse.

I don’t hold out much hope for Yemen calming down.

Israel:

Binyamin Netanyahu set what the Arab’s consider a very hard line for future talks with the PA.

To young members of  Hamas and other fanatical groups, the future is nothing but violence!

Morocco:

There is trouble brewing there and the indications are things could get worse in the near future.

The police there are taking a harder line than in the past few months and that could set in motion violent times.

Egypt:

Announcing Mubarak is gong to stand trial for the deaths of the protestors is going to entrench the GCC state’s leaders more than ever.

The announced new round of protest set for the end of the week may not get the reception from the military they have in the past.

The Egyptian government is about to reach it’s end with people marching in the streets.

The next round of protest could turn ugly.

Syria:

Over 1000 dead!

Egypt total was 800!!!

Today was somewhat quiet, but the indications are the protestors are starting to realize they are unorganized and a quiet spell could mean ‘ plotting’ is taking place.

I can assure you that is the opinion of the Assad administration.

No protest on the streets right now is a dangerous sign in the opinion of the Syrian government.

I am beginning to believe Syria is going to see Lebanon as a ‘breading ground’ for opposition plotting.

Lebanon:

Ok; this is the one that really has me worried!

Lebanon is facing a dangerous future on two fronts.

1. The future of Hezbollah depends on the future of Syria.
2. The sectarian sides continue to grow more paranoid of events in Syria.

Some many things could ignite the flames in Lebanon, I don’t see how this will not eventually happen.

The UN / STL issue will have to be carefully controlled or it might just push the country into civil war.

Several other countries with issues are boiling as I right this post.

The Middle East and North Africa are so volitie it is nearly impossible to track every issue.

Oh ya!

I will look at Spain in the next few days.

It appears someone is trying to get the ‘ Tunisian Virus’ spreading in Spain.



PAKISTAN AND THE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE:

There has been a lot of talk about so called embarrassment handed to the Pakistani  military after the UBL event.

I am not of the opinion the Pak military was embarrassed

They run their country with an iron fist and no one will ever convince me they had no idea the number one terrorist in the world was ¼ mile from their primary military academy.

So, the storyline may say they are ‘embarrassed’, but I have a different theory.

The Pak military is far more worried about losing the confidence of the Pak public!

Going to be at night thinking the Taliban or other fanatical groups can stay where they want or more importantly attack where they please is not the picture of the Pak public the military desires.

Confidence and the loss of such is the glue that holds a military together and a nation that leans on it’s military like Pakistan does needs ever ounce of ‘confidence’ it can manage.

The attack on the Navy base was not as bold as the one on the Military HQ a few years ago.

That attack was even more ‘embarrassing’ than the Navy base event.

Confidence or embarrassments are arguable topics, but the issue of ‘concern’ could be taking center stage.

The article attached brings up a legitimate concern.

Can the Pakistani military provide the level of protection required for a nuclear weapon’s program?

Who does this question apply to?

The Pak public?

The People of India?

The US and it’s Allies?

Let me give you the answer that really matters.

The question applies to the fanatical groups in and around Pakistan.

The concept of targeting an operation or location is based upon two simple factors.

1.      How important is the target to the cause and the owner of the target?

2.      Is it possible to execute the mission?

If the groups that would like to see the government of Pakistan fall believe the nuclear weapons program is a valuable enough target and they believe the target is approachable, then the threat equation goes way.. way .. up!!

Now, compound this problem with the concept of not actually having to be successful  achieving the mission.

Just imagine the CNN / FOX / Al Jazeera / news story of a nuke power plant under attack or a nuke weapons site being in a sixteen hour firefight like the one at the Pak Navy base?

Now, imagine this taking place during the middle of the trading day on Wall Street?

What is the definition of a ‘ successful mission’?

What is the confidence level after such an event taking place?

Like I said, I don’t buy the ‘embarrassed’ storyline with Pakistan, but I do worry about the confidence level the fanatics have in ‘embarrassing’ the Pak Military.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c7c98ddc-84b1-11e0-afcb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1N8ckQ4qe