THE WEEK AHEAD

Here is what I think we can look for over the next few days.

Syria:

            Assad has committed his political and strategic reserves in the past two days.

            With the regular military now being used to police major cities, it will be interesting to see how             Sunni members of the regular military respond to orders.

            If the Command and Control of these regular units comes into question, Assad may see violence  at a  level he has not witnessed yet.

            If military Commanders begin to jump sides, he will have to over commit his Brother's elite forces and that will leave Damascus open for more upheaval  

            Look for Iran to make a series of very bold comments about events in Syria to include how the            US is medaling in Syrian affairs.

            If Iran needs to seriously think about taken action in Syria, it will have to build the case quickly.

Yemen:

            All the news today seemed rather 'rosy', but I am skeptical the protestors will live  with a pledge to             leave some time soon.

            Yemen's resistance is a house divided and the UBL gang is going to have a vote on what the               future holds for Yemen.

            Bottom line; Yemen is far from out of the danger zone.

            It is more like Egypt and Tunisia in that the future may not be based on the old regime, but the       path to peace is a long ways off.

Libya:

            Key players in the world, mainly Russia and China, are exerting more and more influence on the    course of events.

            Libya can easily become the 'Proxy' war for Africa that many of us have predicted was going to   take place between, China and the US / West.

            Putin will put his two cents worth in as soon as he thinks the time is right.

            Libya is not just about Libya.

            Libya is quickly becoming about 'Africa'.

Iran:

            It's not going to be a good week for Iran!

            I am convinced they are now more desperate than they have been in the recent past.

            Syria is a total firestorm and the rooftops in Iran are starting to smoke!!!

            Hezbollah and or Hamas could take drastic actions this week.

            The question becomes where and how?

Conclusion:

This week could be one of the more dramatic periods  we have seen since the fall of Mubarak.



SYRIA GOES OVER THE EDGE!!

http://www.debka.com/article/20868/

Again; Debka is one of the few that get it.

Syria's Army is mostly Sunni and thus the ability to gun down people walking in a funeral march is not going to last long.

I'm not sure if Assad will make the decisions from here on out.

It could be he didn't make this one.

Iran, at the sake of sounding like a broken record here, cannot tolerate the 'Tunisian Virus' in Syria.

So what is going to happen and what should we be looking for?

Scenario number one:

Iran and Assad will ether come together on how to go forward after reaching the 'point of no return' on Friday, and trust me, they reached that point, or Assad will bolt from the Iranian influence and look for a lifeline from Saudi, Jordan or Turkey.

Assad could step up an announce the outsider threat in Syria was being propagated by Iran and not the new friends he may be trying to run to!

I know this sounds outrageous, but Assad is a very desperate man right now and Iran could care less about him as an individual and he knows that!

It will not save his rule, but it may allow him to exit with his family.

A Yemen type / GCC / deal is not out of the question.

Scenario number two:

Iran steps in to help Syria with the "outsider" threat!

A hugely emotional event for the rest of the Arab world that would send a earthquake along the lines of the Arab / Persian divide.

Iran could use the GCC movement into Bahrain as the pretext for moving 'support' units into Syria.

It is obvious the Syrian military and police do not have the skills the Iranians have when it comes to oppressing people.

The fact is, it is probably almost too late for Iran to take this action.  / Point of no return issue.

Scenario number three:

If you have been following my comments for the past month now, you know this next theory is the one I believe is the most likely course of action.

Iran, now more than ever, must have a distraction for what is going on in Syria.

DEBKA talked of a imminent Hezbollah attack on an Israeli target soon that would be a revenge attack for the killing of the Hezbollah leader two years ago.

That attack could very well be a massive event that will compel Israel to take drastic action.   

The timing of this threat advisory is suspect given the desperate state  of Iran and Syria.

Conclusion:

Syria cannot continue down the path it is currently on and Iran knows it.

Saudi and the GCC will be more worried about actions out of Iran than ever before.

Iran is feeling trapped and the world needs to be very careful!



MORE  SIGNS  OF  HOW  DEEP  THE  TROUBLE  IS  FOR  SYRIA

 

'Informers... overseers and campus Thugs!!

These are not the signs of a healthy University; these are the indications of a Nation on the brink of destruction.

As you read this story it is apparent how things in Syria continue to decay.

University Students are just a small fraction of the masses taking to the streets of Syria.

Today's protest are unaccounted for and will be until late tonight or early tomorrow morning given the lack of professional reporting from the country.

You can bet the numbers, as they are on most Fridays, will have been much larger than normal.

You can bet that  Syria's ability to deal with the protest are growing more limited by the day.

What this story does a great job of is painting a picture of how divided the youth of Syria has become.

If Syria learned one thing from Iran in 2009, it's how to take proactive actions on the University Campuses early in a protest.

The disruption of higher learning is a strategic sickness that Syria as a nation cannot survive.

Unlike Yemen, Syria will not be able to drag this uprising out for months.

The concept of waiting for the protester to get discouraged or bored will not work in Syria.

The people of Syria will not stand for months of prolonged violence and social disorder.

Assad knows his  options will become limited sooner than he thinks.

So what does this all mean?

Assad's grows more desperate by the day.

Will Iran come to his rescue or prepare to prevent the Virus from infecting Iran?

We have talked about this for three weeks now and I am more and more convinced Assad is going to fall from power.

Civil War as in Libya is not an option for a multitude of reasons.

Assad must take drastic, violent measures against his own people or he must give in to the demands.

There will be no ' half measures' for Syria.

Assad's problem is, he may not get to be the one that decides what happens in Syria.

Syria has many 'knives' inside it's elitist elements and someone striking a deal with Iran if Assad get's cold feet or tries to find new friends is not out of the question.

If we see him take another 'trip' next week, he is done!



BIG TROUBLE IN BIG CHINA!!!

 A few weeks ago, I wrote about China and the fear of the 'Tunisian Virus' spreading to the mainland.

It appears the leadership of China grows more worried about possibility with each passing day.

These 'crackdowns' are not new to China and they probably would not even make the news if it were not for the events of the Middle East and North Africa.

The fact of the matter is China is worried and they probably should be to some extent.

Many of the so called 'experts' are not predicting massive protest in China and I would tend to agree with them; for now!

Freedom is powerful stimulant to the Human Spirit and it doesn't have to be tied to economic stability.

China set course almost twenty years ago to emulate a capitalistic model for the sole purpose of growing the nation of China.

It chose the path for the simple reason of overtaking the West with it's own weapon; a capitalistic market economy.

The problem with the "Master Plan' was China forgot what economic prosperity would bring to the individuals of China. 

The desire to "prosper" not for the sake of the Motherland, but for the individual's sake.

China built the machine that has forged it to the forefront of the world economy.  

They have also built the social environment that could be China's downfall.

Once you give a person a car, they want a road.. a place to drive to.... a store to buy things in.. a school for their children... another car... so on and so on...

Recently; I've been reading more and more about China's economic engine and how it's about to 'overheat' and what they must do to cool things down.

Cooling things down equates into lowering expectations for the people of China.

We all see how well that's working in the US.

It won't go over any easier in China.

But, here is the big difference; China didn't do what they did for the people, their leaders did it to overtake the West.

Putting the people back in the box, is not going to go over real well.

So, should China be worried about the "Virus" coming to China?

Maybe not this month or even next month, but when their leaders close their eyes at night, they know in their hearts what is coming!

Facebook with 1.4 BILLION people...

How do you stop that?



 LEBANON  BEGINS TO LEAD THE WAY FOR THE ARABS.

Notice the reoccurring theme in this article.

 For the past two weeks Lebanese, March 14th followers,    have been
beating the drum of 'Iranian Persian' goals vs Arabic goals.

 I look for this tone to become more common from not only Lebanon, but Saudi
and the GCC as well.

 Painting a picture of 'outside' influence is the path already taken by
Saudi, but they have not begun the campaign of Persian Vs Arab.

 Persian Vs Arab logic allows the Saudis and the GCC ,as well as others such
as Jordan, to avoid the potential for Arab on Arab condoned violence.

 A sectarian war in the Middle East, and that is where many believe we are
heading, is not the ideal way to motivate the public to support the existing
governments. 

 Saudi and the other GCC members can avoid internal strife if they can sell
their populations on the idea of Iran pushing a Persian agenda that looks to enslave all the Arabs, Shi and Sunni alike.

 The classic example of  creating an outside threat to divert the public's
attention and rally them around the government is within the grasp of Saudi
and the GCC, but they need to begin this campaign quickly.

 Bahrain's expulsion of Lebanese members based upon possible ties to
Hezbollah was a quick attempt at creating the 'outsider'  campaign, but it
was poorly designed.

 The good news was a fast meeting between Lebanon, Hariri, and Bahrain
stopped this movement before Iran could turn it into a " Sunni picking on
the Shi" concept; although Iran did give this argument a shot.

 Iran is not going to sit back and let this happen without a fight.

 The Persians will look for a distraction and a HUGE one if needed.

 Don't forget my theory about the strategic reserves of Hamas and Hezbollah
if a War with Israel becomes the only way out for Iran.

As for Syria; Assad will need to pick his friends quickly.

To give up on Iran or to stick with Iran; that is the question for Syria.

Pulling control of Hezbollah from Iran could be a HUGE prize that Syria could bring with it; thus making a alliance with Saudi or Lebanon all the more appealing.

The danger will come if Iran thinks Syria may give this 'double cross' a try.

Lebanon is on to something and you can bet the other Arab Monarchies are
taking notes and talking all night long.

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/18/opinion-iranian-agenda-syria%e2%80%99s-bu
rden/


THE  IRANIAN  SQUABBLE

In the past I have mentioned Ahmadinejad and Khamenei don't always see things eye to eye.

The  attempted sacking of  Moslehi is very possibly another example of a crack in the relationship.

I'm not sold on the concept of him being hammered by Ahmadinejad because of the Stuxnet event.

If Ahmadinejad was going to take action based upon a perceived failure during the  computer hack, he would have done so several months ago.

To move on someone that is knowingly close to Khamenei at the same time the Middle East is boiling with discontent would not be a wise move.

Ahmadinejad of all people would know this, unless and I stress unless, he knows something we don't know!

If he has attempted to make a move on a loyal Khamenei supporter, then he did it for reasons other than punishment for the Stuxnet event.

So, what could be going on here?

1. Perhaps Moslehi has 'other' issues with Ahmadinejad and how he is handling the "Tunisian Virus"?

            If Iran takes some drastic action in the next few days or week, then that might give us our answer.

            Moslehi may not support how Ahmadinejad wants to react to the events in Syria or potentially in                Iran.

            The violence last week in Iran, in the Arab area of Iran, was not very well covered, but it took      place never the less. 

            Perhaps Moslehi was of the opinion that  shootings at this point in time were unwise?

            Perhaps he supported the shootings and Ahmadinejad did not?

            Remember, Moslehi was one of the key figures in suppressing the 2009 uprising in Iran.

2.  Maybe Ahmadinejad discovered Moslehi was doing something at the orders of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad was  not consulted?

            That would not be the first time that has happened.

One thing is for sure; the tension between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad is still there and my bet is it is getting worse every day.

One phone call from Khamenei to Qassim Suleimani, QOD Commander, and Ahmadinejad is toast!!

Remember what I have said in the past; an Iran in turmoil is not all good news.



 WHAT WILL THE WEEK BRING?

The past few days have had a great deal of 'behind the scene' events taking place that could show up this week as news worthy stories.

SYRIA:

                Assad's  classic maneuver of ' a little too little and a little too late' will force Iran and Syria to make hard, perhaps dramatic decisions.

                Look for Lebanon to become more of an issue as Assad looks for a 'scapegoat'.

                His accusations last week did not go unnoticed in Lebanon with the March 14th crowd.

                Hariri and his followers may very well decide to turn up the heat on Syria and Hezbollah at the  same time. To accuse Hezbollah of inflaming events in Bahrain was a smart move by the March  14th leadership.

                Iran will get a vote on how far Assad gets to play the blame game against Lebanon; something   Iran is not sold on just yet.

                If Assad continues, but you don't hear the same rhetoric coming from Iran, it could be a good   sign that Iran and Assad are continuing to have 'problems' with each other.

YEMEN:

                If there is a real flashpoint this week, it's Yemen.

                Both sides are actually  barrel to barrel with no signs of pulling back.

                If they begin to shoot at each other, it will travel down the path of Libya at least initially.

                If Yemen breaks down into military unit on military unit actions, look for Saudi to    possibly  step   in or demand it's Gulf Neighbors take some type of action.

                There will be no ' no fly zone' over Yemen.

                That mistake will not be repeated.

                My bet is, Yemen becomes the story at some time this week.

BAHRAIN:

                Bahrain becomes a headline event again this week depending on how Iran views actions in Syria.

                What has taken place last week that I find interesting is the weighing of 'options' by Iran.

                Forcing a conflict in Lebanon is to force Iran into utilizing a key defense against Israeli military   action against Iran.

                Spending the collateral of Hezbollah and Hamas and all their stockpiles of weapons to create a   distraction for Syria is a logical concept in the " Rule of Proportionality".

                The Iranian medaling in Bahrain is a logical step, but all options are on the table based upon the   upcoming week's events in Syria.

BOTTOM LINE:

                Oil goes up this week, regardless of Saudi make yet another promises in an endless stream of   promises about Oil production.

                Israel waits for any possible escalation from Hamas fully ready to see if Iran is willing to go to the next level.

We shall see how the week goes.