LEBANON  BEGINS TO LEAD THE WAY FOR THE ARABS.

Notice the reoccurring theme in this article.

 For the past two weeks Lebanese, March 14th followers,    have been
beating the drum of 'Iranian Persian' goals vs Arabic goals.

 I look for this tone to become more common from not only Lebanon, but Saudi
and the GCC as well.

 Painting a picture of 'outside' influence is the path already taken by
Saudi, but they have not begun the campaign of Persian Vs Arab.

 Persian Vs Arab logic allows the Saudis and the GCC ,as well as others such
as Jordan, to avoid the potential for Arab on Arab condoned violence.

 A sectarian war in the Middle East, and that is where many believe we are
heading, is not the ideal way to motivate the public to support the existing
governments. 

 Saudi and the other GCC members can avoid internal strife if they can sell
their populations on the idea of Iran pushing a Persian agenda that looks to enslave all the Arabs, Shi and Sunni alike.

 The classic example of  creating an outside threat to divert the public's
attention and rally them around the government is within the grasp of Saudi
and the GCC, but they need to begin this campaign quickly.

 Bahrain's expulsion of Lebanese members based upon possible ties to
Hezbollah was a quick attempt at creating the 'outsider'  campaign, but it
was poorly designed.

 The good news was a fast meeting between Lebanon, Hariri, and Bahrain
stopped this movement before Iran could turn it into a " Sunni picking on
the Shi" concept; although Iran did give this argument a shot.

 Iran is not going to sit back and let this happen without a fight.

 The Persians will look for a distraction and a HUGE one if needed.

 Don't forget my theory about the strategic reserves of Hamas and Hezbollah
if a War with Israel becomes the only way out for Iran.

As for Syria; Assad will need to pick his friends quickly.

To give up on Iran or to stick with Iran; that is the question for Syria.

Pulling control of Hezbollah from Iran could be a HUGE prize that Syria could bring with it; thus making a alliance with Saudi or Lebanon all the more appealing.

The danger will come if Iran thinks Syria may give this 'double cross' a try.

Lebanon is on to something and you can bet the other Arab Monarchies are
taking notes and talking all night long.

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/18/opinion-iranian-agenda-syria%e2%80%99s-bu
rden/


THE  IRANIAN  SQUABBLE

In the past I have mentioned Ahmadinejad and Khamenei don't always see things eye to eye.

The  attempted sacking of  Moslehi is very possibly another example of a crack in the relationship.

I'm not sold on the concept of him being hammered by Ahmadinejad because of the Stuxnet event.

If Ahmadinejad was going to take action based upon a perceived failure during the  computer hack, he would have done so several months ago.

To move on someone that is knowingly close to Khamenei at the same time the Middle East is boiling with discontent would not be a wise move.

Ahmadinejad of all people would know this, unless and I stress unless, he knows something we don't know!

If he has attempted to make a move on a loyal Khamenei supporter, then he did it for reasons other than punishment for the Stuxnet event.

So, what could be going on here?

1. Perhaps Moslehi has 'other' issues with Ahmadinejad and how he is handling the "Tunisian Virus"?

            If Iran takes some drastic action in the next few days or week, then that might give us our answer.

            Moslehi may not support how Ahmadinejad wants to react to the events in Syria or potentially in                Iran.

            The violence last week in Iran, in the Arab area of Iran, was not very well covered, but it took      place never the less. 

            Perhaps Moslehi was of the opinion that  shootings at this point in time were unwise?

            Perhaps he supported the shootings and Ahmadinejad did not?

            Remember, Moslehi was one of the key figures in suppressing the 2009 uprising in Iran.

2.  Maybe Ahmadinejad discovered Moslehi was doing something at the orders of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad was  not consulted?

            That would not be the first time that has happened.

One thing is for sure; the tension between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad is still there and my bet is it is getting worse every day.

One phone call from Khamenei to Qassim Suleimani, QOD Commander, and Ahmadinejad is toast!!

Remember what I have said in the past; an Iran in turmoil is not all good news.



 WHAT WILL THE WEEK BRING?

The past few days have had a great deal of 'behind the scene' events taking place that could show up this week as news worthy stories.

SYRIA:

                Assad's  classic maneuver of ' a little too little and a little too late' will force Iran and Syria to make hard, perhaps dramatic decisions.

                Look for Lebanon to become more of an issue as Assad looks for a 'scapegoat'.

                His accusations last week did not go unnoticed in Lebanon with the March 14th crowd.

                Hariri and his followers may very well decide to turn up the heat on Syria and Hezbollah at the  same time. To accuse Hezbollah of inflaming events in Bahrain was a smart move by the March  14th leadership.

                Iran will get a vote on how far Assad gets to play the blame game against Lebanon; something   Iran is not sold on just yet.

                If Assad continues, but you don't hear the same rhetoric coming from Iran, it could be a good   sign that Iran and Assad are continuing to have 'problems' with each other.

YEMEN:

                If there is a real flashpoint this week, it's Yemen.

                Both sides are actually  barrel to barrel with no signs of pulling back.

                If they begin to shoot at each other, it will travel down the path of Libya at least initially.

                If Yemen breaks down into military unit on military unit actions, look for Saudi to    possibly  step   in or demand it's Gulf Neighbors take some type of action.

                There will be no ' no fly zone' over Yemen.

                That mistake will not be repeated.

                My bet is, Yemen becomes the story at some time this week.

BAHRAIN:

                Bahrain becomes a headline event again this week depending on how Iran views actions in Syria.

                What has taken place last week that I find interesting is the weighing of 'options' by Iran.

                Forcing a conflict in Lebanon is to force Iran into utilizing a key defense against Israeli military   action against Iran.

                Spending the collateral of Hezbollah and Hamas and all their stockpiles of weapons to create a   distraction for Syria is a logical concept in the " Rule of Proportionality".

                The Iranian medaling in Bahrain is a logical step, but all options are on the table based upon the   upcoming week's events in Syria.

BOTTOM LINE:

                Oil goes up this week, regardless of Saudi make yet another promises in an endless stream of   promises about Oil production.

                Israel waits for any possible escalation from Hamas fully ready to see if Iran is willing to go to the next level.

We shall see how the week goes.





IS ASSAD AND HIS GANG GETTING READY TO LEAVE SYRIA?

This is the second time today I've seen a story about  Assad blaming Hariri of causing
unrest in Syria.

It may go right along with my theory of Iran needing a diversion event to get the world's eyes off of Syria.

It could be Assad's own idea to draw the attention of his own public away from the revolts and then again it may be true!!

The inspections along the Lebanon / Syrian border are a known fact as of today

 The concept of creating an external threat is a tactic Governments have use for thousands of years.

If you can get your public suddenly worried about some 'outsider' threatening their day to day lives, then they may stop directing their anger at their own government.

A Classic move that doesn't always work.   

If Syria really is worried about Lebanon, then Iran will have to give the green light for Syria to do anything about it.

Hezbollah is not a tool for Syria's disposal unless Iran gives its blessing.

If Iran chooses to execute it's 'distraction plan' with actions in Lebanon, then it will do so realizing the potential for Israeli intervention.

I am not sold Iran is ready for a potential conflict utilizing Hezbollah and Hamas and conflict in Lebanon would almost surely bring that about.

I've said this before and I will say it again; Hezbollah and Hamas were rebuilt by Iran for the primary purpose of a future conflict with Israel.

If Syria is about to be overcome by the ' Tunisian Virus', and I think they are, then Iran may have to rethink  how they employ the Hezbollah, Hamas weapons!.

Rumor has it he was in Saudi trying to secure his exodus to the Kingdom.

 Syria is in real trouble and Assad knows it.

 You have to wonder what his trip to Saudi was really all about?

I bet Iran has asked him already.

 http://www.iloubnan.info/en/actualite/id/59978/titre/Hundreds-of-trucks-dela
yed-at-Lebanon-Syria-border

I'm not sure I buy that story just yet, but he may be getting a plan together.

 SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO? By the Clash.

This is a song Ahmadinejad may have to sing by the time Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gets done with him.

Two days ago I said everyone needed to pay attention when Ahmadinejad
'adjustments to the public  subsidies really becomes apparent to the Iranian public.

His timing is unbelievably  bad!!!

 He knows  Syria is the Canary  in the cage for what might
be coming to Iran, yet he pulls the trigger on upping the price of natural
gas 10 fold!!!!

 With the issue of subsidies being the spark, he may have just ignited the
flames of revolt in Iran.

 Assad has to be looking at Ahmadinejad and thinking, " what are you doing"?

 If the 'Tunisian Virus' truly spreads to Iran and I think it will now, then
Assad knows all too well  he is on his own.

 He may be willing to strike deals with 'others' to save his skin and he also knows Iran will find out if he is out trying to make new friends!

So, where was he today?

  Yep, He was  in Saudi!

Now just think how that went over in Iran?

I have talked about the danger of Ahmadinejad looking for a diversion to
take the world's eye off of Syria and how that could lead to Hamas,
Hezbollah actions on Israel or Bahrain.

 Now that Iran has  given its public  an issue they can all rally around, it
will be interesting to see if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sticks with
Ahmadinejad.

                  No real love there; just  two Alpha Males that, for now, get along.

Ahmadinejad's option  to save his rule may be based on creating a
distraction in the Middle East, but Khamenei's version of a distraction may
be based on tossing out Ahmadinejad.  

The 'movement' is far more important to Khamenei than Ahmadinejad was or will ever be!

 The bottom line is simply this.

 Iran just made a catastrophic error  with the subsidies issue.

The question becomes, what do they do about it and more importantly,  how do we capitalize on it?

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/13/anger-in-iran-as-natural-gas-prices-incre
ase-10-fold/





TWO EVENTS WORTH TALKING ABOUT

Lets start by talking about the rumors of Syrian military leaders ordering their own members fired upon for not shooting at the public.

This is an event that if true, and I believe it is, it will prove to be more ominous for Assad than most of us realize.

A whole series of things have to happen for a dramatic escalation such as this to take place.

            Assad had to have give 'Rules of Engagement" to his own military leaders that he would not          tolerate disloyalty and perhaps even order anyone disobeying  to be shot.

            A huge pressure point between he and his Commanders that will have its toll even if the    Commanders don't have to carry it out.

            Military Command and Civilian leadership's 'Trust' is the key to any nation's survival.

            Once this bond is strained or broken, a critical step has been taken to loss of continuity of government.

            The strain these 'Rules of Engagement' place on the sub unit commanders and their superiors is     magnified again and again.

            In the history of professional militaries actions such as these or even  rumors on Commanders       firing on  their own troops is catastrophe few militaries have survived.

            The public, as witnessed in the attached linked article, spreads the word of these horrific event        faster than the government can get out in front of the story.

            The public understands what a monumental step this is and the gravity of just how much trouble    their nation may be in begins to set in.

So, if this has happened and again, I believe it has, then Syria and specifically Assad, who is NOT his Father, could be in far worse trouble than many realize.

You can bet Iran knows if this has taken place or not and the midnight oil is burning in the Iranian War Room!

 http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/12/syrian-soldiers-shot-protest

The second issue is just as worrisome, if not more so, than the Syrian event.

Hamas  and others working with Hamas may have very well chosen a laser guided weapon against a bus to prove a point about the 'Iron Dome'.

The timing fits the concept.

I wrote about Israel not 'taking the bait' from Iran with the hostilities of the past two weeks, but the author of the attached article is absolutely correct with his last comment.

If that bus would have been full of Children, Israel would be at War right now.

The question becomes did Hamas have good enough intelligence to know who was on the bus?

From Israel's viewpoint, they now must dedicate the manpower to scan the border with Gaza for laser target identifiers.

I'm not sure if Israel can afford to not take the bait much longer.  

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/04/12/iron-dome-weaponry-alters-strategic-balance-gaza-strip/



CHAMOUN  CALLS  IT  LIKE  HE  SEES  IT!!!

Wow; what a gutsy not to mention strategic move by Chamoun!

 I've been saying for a long time if we ever want to keep the entire
Middle East from falling into the hands of a radical Persian Empire, we had to insure
the Arabs understood the true threat of Persian's wanting to rule  the
Arabs again.

 Many Arabs have believed in the Persian threat for years, but events had not
risen to the level of needing to draw the dividing line not to mention the  the PA/ Israeli conflict took center stage.

 Iran's nuclear weapons program was the beginning for several key Arab
countries to realize the time may be coming to play the "Persian Card".

 Saudi has been quietly working this philosophy for years along with Jordan
and a few of the Gulf Nations.

 For Chamoun to feel  now is the time, with all that is going on in the
Middle East, to play the "Persian Card" in Lebanon is fascinating.

 Perhaps he sees  the events in Syria and the possibility of them spreading to Iran as an oprotunity to counter Iranian inflenece in Lebanon.

His movement knows  Jordan and Saudi  will support  everything they  can conjure up to keep Iran off balance.

One thing is for sure, Lebanon is not going the way Iran and Hezbollah want
it to.

 The question now becomes, what does Iran do about it?

 Between stirring the pot with Israel over the past week by giving Hamas on
other's their marching orders for limited attacks on Israel  and Israel not
overreacting, as Iran hopped it would, and now Assad killing more people in
peaceful protest, Iran is growing more desperate by the day.




http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/11/chamoun-hezbollah-is-a-persian-party/#



Oh ya. Watch what happens in Iran when they devalue their currency again.