WHO'S ON FIRST? I DON'T KNOW... SECOND BASE!!!

Not going to say much about operations in Libya tonight given the confusion over what needs to be done and what can be accomplished.  It is not my place to second guess my peers as they continue to execute missions.

I want to spend this time talking about what really worries me and that is Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen.

Syria:

            Events in Syria today were out of the ordinary. Those that protested  where not the usual suspects            that have taken to the streets in the past few weeks.

            These groups were 'common' folks, Sunni, who have not had the nerve to protest in the past.

            That is a very troubling trend for the leadership of Syria and Iran.

            It's the first real sign the 'Tunisian Virus' is taking hold in Syria.  

            I would have loved to have heard the phone calls between Damascus and Tehran today.

            Remember; trouble in Syria is not all good news. 

            In my opinion, it's very bad news.

Bahrain:

            If Iran was not willing to turn up the heat too quick in Bahrain, they may very well change their     minds now that Syria is starting to worry them.

            A huge distraction to take the 'eyes' off of Syria is not out of the question for Iran.

            Extended violence in Bahrain could be just the ticket Iran is looking for and arming up the Shi of    Bahrain is not hard for Iran  to do.

            Saudi understands this all too well.

Yemen:

            Having yet another leader, if you can call him that, warn of a 'Civil War' is not what we need to    hear right now.

            Tribal lines run deep in the Middle East and Yemen is no exception.

            The next few days in Yemen could be the competition for Libya when it comes to news coverage.

The Chess Game in the Middle East is getting harder and harder to predict.

The stakes are going to go up exponentially if Syria begins to see real violence in the streets.

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IRAN FORGOT TO GIVE SYRIA THE ANTIDOTE

for two months now I've been talking about the 'Tunisian Virus' and the impact on the Middle East and North Africa.

I've talked about how Iran has made a  very good attempt to 'weaponize' the Virus in order to utilize it against the Gulf Nations.

I've talked about how difficult and downright dangerous it is for any nation to think it can control the Virus.

Well; in the past three days, Syria seems to a prime example of just how uncontrollable  this Virus really is!

Iran's  clever sound bites about the US being fast to support the people of Egypt  and Libya, yet being somewhat silent on the topic of Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi have played well so far.

The shoe now seems to be on the other foot.

Iran must justify the heavy-handed  response of Syria and in doing so, play right into the hands of those in Iran who also want 'Change'.

"Change" ... A buzz word that seems to have a much different meaning in the Muslim world than in the US.

So what is going on?

Nothing has changed from what I predicted would happen two months ago.

The 'Tunisian Virus' shows the ability to attack all host nations and that is going to be a troublesome concept outside of North Africa and the Middle East if the world economy continues to tank.

Here is one true advantage Iran and Syria have over the free world.

They control their press/ media.

The pictures painted in Iran and Syria will be only what the leadership allows it to be.

A HUGE difference compared to CNN / FOX / BBC / coverage in Egypt, Libya. Tunisia ect .. ect..

Ok. Get ready for this.

We may need to rely on Al Jazerra to keep the news moving in Iran and Syria.

I know that sounds wild, but it just may be the difference maker; that and social medias.

Is Syria in real trouble of social unrest?

Yep! I believe they are.

I told several people today that Syria is to Iran what Bahrain is to Saudi.

The truth is Syria is more important to Iran than Bahrain is to Saudi!!!

Early on in this remarkable event, I stated a wounded Iran and or Syria is a very dangerous moment.

Iran is not Egypt. It is not Libya.

Iran cannot afford to lose Syria as it's 'proxy war-fighter'.

What Iran is willing to do to avoid the 'Tunisian Virus' appearing in Syria and Iran is anyone guess.

I know Yemen and Bahrain and Libya have the media's attention right now, but trust me when I say, we need to keep a very close eye on Syria and Iran.

You can bet Israel is!!

Gadhafi  executed a classic military maneuver today.

            He moved his lead forces in close with the opposition and the civilian population.

            Two things happen when you 'close the distance' with your enemy if you are suffering from air     strikes.

                        1.  You make it much harder for precision weapons to strike intended targets.

                                    Two trucks near each other that look identical, one being a good guy the other                                          being the bad guy, makes it very hard for the pilot to decide what target to hit.  

                        2.  You insure you enemy will inflict civilian casualties and the media will cover that part                           of the attack far more than the actual targets themselves.

            So this morning when you hear how his forces are  being seen moving into the two major 'rebel' strongholds, you understand now what he is trying to accomplish. He is hiding his forces amonsgt the opposition.

This tells us two key strategic facts.

            1. The Mad Dog believes the strikes are not over.

            2.  He anticipates more than just clearing out anti air ops to create a No Fly Zone.

                        He believes Air to Ground attacks are the real goal here, not just a No Fly Zone.



OK; HERE WE GO!

Remember today. Remember when the American People said, "we need to help those poor people in Libya".

I seem to remember the same sentiment soon after 9-11. That is not to compare 9-11 to events in Libya, but the American People have very short memories.

It very possible the Mad Dog may be overcome by events given the destruction of many of his military assets, but if he does survive, a wounded Dog is a very dangerous animal!

A few things to ponder here.

            1. He knew these strikes were probably coming and had ample time to move key assets away         from recently targeted sites.  

                        Don't bank on the fact that because over one hundred missiles were fired that his capabilities are  drastically reduced.

Battle Damage Assessment is a very tricky art and is usually not   reliable  without eyes and ears on the ground to confirm damage.

            2.  Many Arabs were in favor of a no fly zone, but large scale targeting of building complexes       may not sell as well in the press.

            3. You can bet, as I said a few days ago, the Mad Dog will produce civilian casualties, even if he has to kill them himself!

                        Get ready for the Al Jazerra clips of wounded children and Women. It's going to happen.

            4. Iran is taking real good notes. They just got a real good idea of how we target Command and    Control nodes in a hostile nation.

                        What we bombed in Libya will be quickly analyzed  by Iran.

            5.  Those in Libya that were sitting on the fence, not really carinig about the 'Rebels' but not          willing to get involved, will now get involved and do so on the side of the Government.

            It's like the old saying, " It may be a crapy Marriage, but it's my Marriage".

            Nothing sparks Nationalism faster than being attacked.

            Many there felt the conflict was an 'internal' affair.

            We just changed that opinion!

Ok; Don't get me wrong. I've been  for killing  the Mad Dog  since the day of Lockerby; but we are  now deep into what I consider a brilliant trap by the Iranians.

Yep; we, the West, not just the US, have executed just as Iran anticipated we would.

How in the world do we support Saudi, Bahrain, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait ect... ect...  and finally Israel after bombing Libya?

Don't get fooled by some talking head saying, " this is a much different situation. He was killing 'innocent' civilians.

In the eyes of the Arabs, particularly the Shi, there is no difference.

I can't tell you where the military action in Libya may head.

How things start are not near as important as how they end up or how they change.

I can predict one thing for sure.

Over the course of the next few months, Iran is going to make HUGE gains based on the

actions of the ' Colonial Powers'.    Yep, that is the buz word name we will wear after today. Hell' we wear it not anyway.



WHAT FIRE WOULD YOU LIKE TO TALK ABOUT ?

Short and sweat tonight.

Pick a crisis you want to worry about.

Japan?

            Ugly and sad, but not going to change the outcome of the world, with the exception of the             paranoia of Nuclear Power.

Yemen?

            A fire that is going to grow shortly and most people don't understand how important this event is.

            Remember what I said about the location of Yemen and the paranoia of Saudi.

Bahrain?

            Ugly and will soon be the focal point of a possible conflict between Iran and Saudi. Not a shooting war, but a war of words that could set the alliance between the Saudis and Israel.

Libya?

            I said it last night, but I will say it again.

            To bomb the current government in Libya is possibly  to set up the future of another that will not    have the interest of the West and shurly will not have a peaceful relationship with Israel on it's  mind.

Saudi?

            Quickly traveling down the road of unrest. I just wonder if they understand they are about to see   their own people, mostly Shi, protesting their presence in Bahrain?

            So many problems coming their way it will make for a long Summer.

Like I said, if you want to worry about the state of things to come, there is a whole list to work from.

Of course, you could worry about who is going to win Survivor or Dancing with the Stars.

Sometimes, ignorance really is bliss.



BAHRAIN RETHINKS A BAD IDEA

Two weeks ago Bahrain's leadership made a terrible decision to allow  Hassan Mushaima to come back to Bahrain.

As soon as this guy hit the ground, probably before he hit the ground, he started planning the next phase of violence in Bahrain.

If you don't think he had 'help'  / Iran  / then you still don't understand what is going on in the Gulf .

Putting him in custody along with a few others was the right thing to do, but I'm affraid it might be too late.

The mistake was letting him back into the country.

For weeks now I have been talking about Saudi and its neighbors to the East need to start framing this event as an Iranian lead operation based on Iran taking advantage of the ' good people' who are trying to make their lives better.

Yep, Iran is a Hijacker. Nothing new there!!

What Iran has  done is move from Airplanes to movements.

On the bright side, I did see another slight hint that Bahrain  understands this Iranian operation.

If you read this link, you will see they accused Mushaima and others of working with 'other countries' to organize the protest.

In the world of not wanting to inflame a volatile environment it is understandable Bahrain may not want to call out Iran, but they will need to do so by the time events in Bahrain  really taking over the international news.

Events in Japan are buying Bahrain and Saudi time, but it's also buying Iran time.

Side note; someone needs to school Bahraini  Police and Military on the subject of cell phone cameras!

The clip that made the news today, Al Jazeera, of the three trucks turning the corner and gunning down the two guys standing along the wall is going to go a long ways at inflaming the public as well as playing on Iranian news channels.

What Saudi has designed in Bahrain is a 'testing ground' on how to respond to the 'Tunisian Virus' when it comes to Saudi.

Dealing with the mobile media is something Saudi is not good at, but they better figure it out real quick.

  

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/201131733318735470.html