SIGNS AND WARNING SIGNS!!!

So; As I mentioned last night, we should be watching for "signs" The IDF, Israeli Defense Force and the nation itself is preparing for a major conflict.

Here is the problem; Israel just may try to make this event as much as a "cold start" as possible.

It's not possible to execute in a complete vacuum, but the speed at which Israel launches into an operation can be drastically reduced by assuming a level of "risk".

Before we look at what a "cold start" operation may look like,  or for that matter what options Israel has all together, let me get back on the original theme for tonight.

First off; it's virtually impossible now days to mobilize a modern day military without setting off alarm bells just about everywhere. What becomes tenuous is not second guessing what your Ally or your Enemy is doing and thus making the situation even worse. I.E. Just because a Nation begins to act like it is getting ready for war, doesn't absolutely  mean they are. Throughout history the tactic of " look at us, we are not kidding" has been used.  The book of  Brinkmanship has many twist and making one's enemies think they are driving towards a war is just one chapter in the book.

So what does this mean? Before we start to believe all the signs we might start to see, we must make a decision on the art of "deception" under the disguise of Brinkmanship.

Once we are convinced the signs are legitimate, we need to quickly calculate the complexity of them in order to grasp the severity of what may be about to happen.

As an example, If we hear that Israel is purchasing supplies for its hospital system above and beyond it's normal supply cycle, that is a "sign"!!   Determining when the supplies requested will be delivered  is just one example of calculating, or in the world of intelligence geeks, " analyzing", the significance of the "signs".

I hope the picture and the process of Nation State Tea Leaf Reading, is becoming a little more clear now. If not, turn on Boob Tube  and live the happy life of an Ostrich!  

Ok; down and dirty on what "signs" to watch for!

1. Listed above: Hospital and other " first responders" buildup.  Has to be done.. The public will not stand for civilian casualties in Israel without proper medical preparation.

2. IDF air force bases with a higher than normal Ops Tempo.

                Hint: This and many other military "signs" are easily masked by standing up and standing down               over and over again over a period of time. Old trick that is worth its weight in gold when it            comes to confusing  the enemy.

3.  Roadway preparations.  The last thing any government wants going on when they are getting ready to move large segments of their society are large construction / roadway projects. Again an issue the public would never forgive the government for.

Making an entire list would not only be a time drain but at some point it becomes very subjective and thus pointless.

The concept of knowing what particular "signs" to look for should be limited to large, strategic topics.

What is more important is understanding why this observation process should take place and on top of everything else, we should not simply rely on our government to be the keepers of this process. This is the power of a free and unbiased press. Unbiased is the key statement here!

Ok; on Monday I will go over options Israel has and why they may or may not chose to use them.

If you think Egypt is free and the world is heading in the right direction, then you are prbably missing this week's episode of Bimbos of Hollywood.  

OH BOY. THE JOY.....  EGYPT IS FREE ........ RIGHT!!!!

Well; all day long professional news coverage such as CNN, insert sarcasms here, has been blabbing away about the joyful  occasions in Egypt. Did anyone take the time to read the Israeli news lines today? You would be hard pressed to find the same gleeful attitude that seems to be running around the US. As long as this coverage doesn't cut into Reality TV, the American Public will continue to act like they are interested.

So why are  the viewpoints in Israel and the US so terribly different today?

 How is it the people of Israel are not ecstatic for the liberation of Egypt?

Well, first off, would anyone like to take a guess on which of the two societies is a little more in-tune with the ground truth of the Middle East?  If you guessed the people of Israel, you are hereby authorized to continue reading this post. If you said the US population, then you are free to resume watching Jersey Shore or Desperate Housewives or even WCW.

Ok; what is it the people of Israel know, fear, that most in this country don't have a clue about? Oh ya; for the first time in God knows how long, the leadership of Saudi and several other Gulf states have the same core concern the leadership of Israel has. Is that not a world turned upside down or what?

Actually this began to happen as Iran popped up on the  "threat radar" of the whole region several years ago.

It is beating a Dead Horse to start talking about the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood and " others" coming onto the political scene in Egypt. Unfortunately, only time will tell what side of this argument is right.

Here is the part that makes that short period of history so terribly important.

Israel will watch events in Egypt, Saudi, Lebanon and now probably Algeria and Libya as they physically hold their collective breath!   

About the time you hear the rumors on the talking head shows of the MB "making real gains" in Egyptian politic and the continued protest in places such as Jordan, and Libya, the Israelis will be  preparing for war.  That is not being melodramatic. That my friends is the simple truth!

Sunday I will go over what I think we can be looking for that will make Israel begin the transformation to a true War footing. I will link this with the Israeli actions that will give the common citizen in the US the hint of terrible times to come; that is if they are bothering  to look!!!



This is the true Arab version of this  age old saying:  “The Enemy of my Enemy is my friend, until I need to cut his throat as well!!”

Ok; last night I said there is a way out of this whole mess in  the Middle East.

In fact, there are probably many ways to “solve” this crisis, but I want to focus in on one that I find particularly fascinating given it deals with the real way Arabs, Persians and “others” seem to get along over there.

It’s a common tactic to disrupt your enemies from within. Look at what Iran just did in Lebanon last month? If ya missed it or don’t know what I’m talking about, I’m sorry. Turn off Dancing with the Stars and pay attention to what is going on in the world just a little more!

Iran is not the only country that knows the fine art of preventive operations. Israel could probably run an entire University based on this skill craft.  A classic example might be a very advanced computer viruses, but we have no idea who could have pulled that stunt on IranJ

A few things have taken place in the past two months that if properly fused,  could delay or even destroy the dreams of Iran’s leadership; notice I didn’t say the Iranian people. We will need them as time goes on. 

As an example:

It has been rumored and I think it’s more than a rumor now, the STL ( Special Tribunal on Lebanon) indictment list was leaked shortly after the preliminary report was handed over.  

One strong rumor is the Iranian leadership Khamenei and the Syrian President Al-Assad have been named in the indictment.

http://www.jpost.com/home/article.aspx?id=203729

If true, it would explain the full blown panic Iran launched into that drove Hezbollah to dissolve the coalition government in Lebanon. 

They simply could not wait to see if Hariri was going to go along with the STL or not.

Now Hezbollah doesn’t want a full-blown battle for the control of Lebanon.

That is not their marching orders from Iran, but the Sunni population of Lebanon is liable to go “berserk” if they see the UN make a statement that someone as influential at the spiritual leader of Iran was responsible for the murder of the Lebanese leader.

Hezbollah’s orders are to assume control of Lebanon and await the day Iran goes to war with Israel.

If Lebanon blows up, that plan will go down the drain, thus the theory stated above of a “preemptive operation”.

Sounds a little crazy given my comment was, “ how do we avoid the conflict”.

The conflict I stated we avoid is a Regional War.

It could be Israel and the US avoid a Regional War by allowing Lebanon to catch on fire.

Think of it as a “backfire” as used to fight a large Forrest Fire.

Here is the problem:

The UN knows full well what a monumental step it is to implicate  someone as influential as Khamenei and or Al-assad.

If they are really going to do this, then they would be very upset with any leak of their report.

Hint: If you look at the STL website, they state how upset they are about “leaking information”.

Final note:

How upset would Ahmadinejad be if Khamenei was implicated in the STL report?

You might be surprised by the answer.

Good topic for Saturday Night!

OH BOY.. DID THINGS TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORST OR WHAT???

I know I was going to talk about the technical / tactical side of the potential conflict between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, but Egypt came blazing  back onto the scene today and I think it's important to understand what happened and what it could mean.  

Ok; let's get right down to it!  In the world of international affairs, stacked on top of national strategic objectives, the US is in the process of blowing not only the Egyptian event but the Middle East as a whole.

Ok; there is plenty of blame to go around and before it is all said and done I would not be surprised to hear that some of this is "George Bush's Fault"! So, before we get hung up on the blame game, let's just level the playing field and say there is enough to go around for anyone who has a stake in the Middle East. Disclaimer now complete!!!

We, the US, blew it!!! The good news is, we have been "blowing it" in the Middle East for over fifty years so why should we suddenly change now? I find it amazing that just sixty days ago Mubarak was a " vital ally" of the US. You couldn't find anyone above the rank of file clerk or office buried analysis Nerd who would have spoken ill of Egyptian leadership. Today, I heard our leadership, and many others, paint a picture of a absolute "Monster" terrorizing the "good people of Egypt. Even more remarkable was the consistent drumbeat of "talking  heads" saying this abuse had been going on for years!!! Um??? Where was this opinion up until the events of Tunisia? Did the West  lose track of Mubarak? Did everyone lose his phone number or his email address??? Has no one in the US read the Egyptian newspapers for the past ten years? Hello!!! BS!!! We and everyone else ether knew the condition of Egypt, PS, I did and I'm just a dumb Cop, or we spent BILLIONS on Intelligence and the DoS and still can't see the hand in front of our face. I don't buy that excuse. We, the US and the West, knew exactly how much trouble Egypt was in and the direction it was heading. Perhaps we didn't foresee a Facebook lead event and Lord knows we strategically, continually, underestimate the social medias and their impacts on the day to day world.

Let's look in the mirror and understand why we, the US and the rest of the free world, were willing to let things get to this point.  Here comes the shocker, because so far I know I must sound like a College Campus Tree Hugger, but I agree with why we were tolerant of conditions in Egypt and frankly elsewhere. We were tolerant because  Mubarak was doing what had to be done to keep the Middle East from a Regional War! I have made this point in previous post, but here it comes again. The minute Israel is surrounded on her borders by her enemies, the odds of a regional war become more than frightening.  Our, not just the US, remember my statement about enough blame to go around here, commitment to Mubarak and Egypt was based upon Egypt giving Israel the security comfort it needed to keep from lashing out at her enemies. One only has to look at why Israel would agree to give the Gaza to the Palestinians. Israel was assured the ability of her enemies to build a operational military force to her rear would be kept in check by Egypt. A concept that is now in question given the ability of Hamas.

Let me dumb this  concept down !! We rebuilt Egypt's military after the disaster of the 1973 war   on the agreement that  Egypt assured the West they would no longer wage war on Israel and would insure Israel's border with Egypt was secure.

I heard a local radio station idiot yapping away today about how much money the US has spent on Egypt and the fact that we have nothing to show for it.

Ok. 1973 to 2011 and no regional war. No! Don't Count Desert Storm or Iraq. They are NOT regional wars.

What scares me are the people who can't figure out this simple truth. The US spent national treasure to prevent a war that could and would destabilize the entire Western Economy.

 Lord, the 1973 conflict almost lead to a nuclear war. Yep. Read your history!!!

Now, everyone and their Brother is running around the US and Europe screaming that the poor people of Egypt deserve a free and democratic government.

Let me ask a simple yet some will say "heartless" question.

If a Democratic / free government in Egypt leads to a government that will not insure Israel's security and that leads to Israel striking at her enemies and that leads to five dollar a gallon gas and a collapse of the US economy, then where do we stand?  At what price does Egypt come to their goal?

Is this an outrageous statement? I truly hope the people of this country don't think so.

Ok; How do we get out of this?

That's a topic for Friday night and Captain Morgan.

Hint; there is a way out of this.



WHY IS CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST CLOSER NOW THAN IN THE PAST?             

Several issues need to be addressed here.

                1. The technology of warfare is drastically different now than just a few short years ago. The ability to inflict large scale damage is now possible with very small numbers of combatants. thus; well equipped, dedicated forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas can inflict more damage than the entire armies of Egypt and Syria thirty years ago.

2.  The speed of conflict is now more of a factor than almost any time in the past; with the exception of nuclear warfare when we only had, or should I say have, apx 30 min to respond. If your enemy can attack with little or no warning, then your nation's ability to mobilize to the attack is severely limited. The days of planning on losing the first week or two weeks of a major conflict before marshalling the forces needed to counter attack are a page in history now. As an example, Israel needs several days to go from a cold start to a full mobilization footing. Given the advanced state of weaponry by not only nation states such as Iran, but proxy units such as Hezbollah and Hamas, the tactical advantage that has long been on Israel's  side is now drastically reduced. Israel's  option would become an issue of "disproportionality". To put it simply, in the early hours of a major, combined attack by multiple forces from different locations, Israel would have to resort to responding in a manner much more saver than the attack they were suffering. Thus; the disproportional response that would most likely lead to a fast escalation of the conflict. In fact, the only chance Israel may have to "level the playing field" would be to respond in just this fashion. Remember, the issue of technologically advanced enemies. The missile attacks alone  on Israel could be devastating  not only physically, but emotionally in just the first few hours of the conflict.

3.  Israel is quickly  reaching the classic point in history where, " a good defense is a strong offense".  Ask yourself a simple question; can Israel gamble the existence of their nation by waiting for its enemies to make the first move; remembering the disadvantages they are soon facing-- surrounded by capable and dedicated enemies.  Believe me when I tell you, the Israelis understand this paradox!

Tomorrow, I will talk about the tactical way this tragedy  make take place.

Remember this; the art of negotiating "peace" requires two sides that  wish to have peace.  Is this really what the issue is in the Middle East? Do both sides want to coexist? What side to you hear almost daily saying the Zionist Regime is going to be struck from the earth? Do you really think that side wants peace?

Sadly; talking has seldom been the answer in warfare.

THE DAY  THE  STL  GOES  BAD!!!!

Yesterday I talked about why the STL, Special Tribunal on Lebanon, event is a real flash point for the Middle East and for the US. Tonight I will give my opinion, I know... everyone has one, how the STL may trigger a conflict and why Iran may or may not want  it to happen just now.

How might this event happen?

Just take a look at the map of Lebanon I posted above and it is easy to see why the division lines are so tenuous. Lebanon is not your usual "melting pot". Like Europe and England, the Lebanese version of multiculturalism is nothing more than dividing lines across the country. make one wrong turn and you can end up in bad guy territory depending on what side your belong to.

Ok; Hezbollah,  has it's marching orders as well as their own goals. Iran wants Hezbollah to be positioned to strike or counter strike at Israel across from their other main force, Hamas in Gaza. Stack this on top of Syria and now maybe Egypt and the Iranians have more than just a strategic advantage, they could have a checkmate move!!  Hezbollah had to take their time gaining power in Lebanon based on the demographics referred to earlier. Their actions of last month, bringing down the Lebanese coalition  government, was not only part of the master plan from Iran, but it was executed at the perfect time to begin the process of circumventing the STL report / trial or at least that is what Iran hopes for.

Here are the next moves, again in my opinion. 

1. The STL announces the list of Hezbollah members the UN finds to be responsible for the murder of the Lebanese Prime Minister in 2005.

2. Hezbollah lets the interim Government announce they do not support the STL. 

3. Hezbollah leadership gives a canned press conference,  a fiery one, that again claims the whole STL process is a US/ Israeli generated event to discredit Hezbollah. Oh ya; did I mention the UN officially doesn't recognize Hezbollah as a Terrorist organization? True story. The UN official description of Hezbollah is a Political movement that is illegally armed!!!! WHAT??? Political Correctness gone wild. Again, we will hear that Israel actually killed the Lebanese Prime Minister.

4. Iran will weigh in stating the people of Lebanon have given their support to Hezbollah and the "West" is interfering with Lebanese internal politics. Hint. This is a theme that will carry a great deal of weight in the Middle East right now.

5. The US, let's hope, will announce the UN / STL must be allowed to go forward in the name of justice or some other corny DoS statement like that.

6. The Lebanese military will do all it can to keep the Sunni factions from kicking up more than just small demonstrations.

7. The UN / STL will announce the proceeding will go on in " Abstention" if need be, thereby circumventing  the Lebanese Government supporting or not supporting the STL findings.

8. Hezbollah and its backers, Syria, who just may keep a low profile in this event and I will talk about why that might be tomorrow night, and Iran will declare the trail and all its proceedings null and void.

9. UN / STL will issue warrants for the Hezbollah suspects and Hezbollah will ignore the whole process.

10. UN and others will threaten Embargos on Lebanon for non compliance.

11. The other Arab nations will weigh in according to their religious heritage  at the sametime trying to stand as the peace keepers.

Thus; the battle lines are set!!!!

Conflict!!! Ah.. I will get into that on Wednesday night.

http://www.stl-tsl.org/

Ok: for those of you who don't know what the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is / STL/ try the link attached.

Why is this event important?

Up until the Tunisian Virus events of the past month, the STL process was quickly leading to the very real threat of organized violence in Lebanon that could and still can lead to open conflict between Israel and Iran / Syria / Lebanon / Hamas / Hezbollah. 

What is it? Here is the cheap version, but I would recommend you read the link.  

In 2005, the Leader of Lebanon was murdered, along with many others, by a huge car bomb. It is common knowledge that Hezbollah was responsible for the event, but with backing from Syria and Iran.

The Government of Lebanon requested an investigation by the UN to determine who was responsible for the event.

Well; the findings are about to be made public and several key members of Hezbollah are probably going to be named as the primary suspects.

Hezbollah / Syria / Iran  all know this will seriously hinder the Iranian master plan of having a Iranian controlled, proxy government in control of Lebanon.

Why does Iran want a "controlled" government in Lebanon? Look at the borders of Israel and see if you can figure it out.

If everything goes to Iran's plan, they will have Hamas on one side, Hezbollah on the other and now possibly a anti Israeli government in Egypt. Yep, one that may not be pro Iranian, but one they can secretly work with to conspire against their common enemy; Israel. If you don't think this can happen, look at the Iranian relationship with OBL's people. Never forget one of the oldest sayings in the Middle East, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

Ok; back to the STL! 

As of a few days ago, the Iranians and Hezbollah had the perfect distraction from the STL pending event; Egypt.  What worries them now is two issues.

                1.  The events in Egypt seem to be stabilizing and the US has woken up to the disastrous policy                of running around demanding that Mubarak leave now.

                2.  The United Nations Tribunal is speeding up their timeline for release of its investigation.

                Why are they speeding up the timeline you might ask?

                                a.  They realize the maneuver Hezbollah pulled last month of dissolving the government                                           coalition in Lebanon is simply a preemptive strike to avoid the STL findings. The STL is                                                 Something the UN has worked too hard for  to prove their value to the rest of the world.                                            They are out to prove to the world the UN is capable of investigating international                                        incidents and holding a trial. Scary concept in many ways.

Ok; what is the point of this discussion?

If the STL is successful, and I believe they will be, in naming names in Hezbollah that should stand trial for the events in 2005, then Hezbollah as a potential, acceptable political party in Lebanon is all but wrecked.  If that happens, Iran loses a strategic part of their master plan for warfare with Israel. Think of it as the old Soviet Empire losing a key Warsaw Pack Satellite  country.

Here is, in my opinion, the crazy part of this whole STL event.

If the STL is somehow defeated or doesn't have the impact of removing Hezbollah from the political arena, then Israel could be faced with a three front war if they have a conflict with Iran.

If Israel sees Hezbollah / Iran / Syria having things their way in Lebanon to the point the Lebanese Army is nothing more than a tool to attack Israel, then warfare in the entire region is more than a possibility!!

Oh ya; here is the kicker; the US  has been supplying the Lebanese military for over two years now.

In 1973, the Soviet Union watched billions of dollars of equipment and aid go up in smoke with the defeat  of the Arab militaries on the battlefields with Israel. We could be looking at the same thing.

I have just scratched the surface of what this whole STL event could mean to the US and it's allies.

I will concentrate more on this regional topic in the next few nights, given the Egyptian Woodstock seems to be settling in for the long haul!.