WHY IS CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST CLOSER NOW THAN IN THE PAST?             

Several issues need to be addressed here.

                1. The technology of warfare is drastically different now than just a few short years ago. The ability to inflict large scale damage is now possible with very small numbers of combatants. thus; well equipped, dedicated forces such as Hezbollah and Hamas can inflict more damage than the entire armies of Egypt and Syria thirty years ago.

2.  The speed of conflict is now more of a factor than almost any time in the past; with the exception of nuclear warfare when we only had, or should I say have, apx 30 min to respond. If your enemy can attack with little or no warning, then your nation's ability to mobilize to the attack is severely limited. The days of planning on losing the first week or two weeks of a major conflict before marshalling the forces needed to counter attack are a page in history now. As an example, Israel needs several days to go from a cold start to a full mobilization footing. Given the advanced state of weaponry by not only nation states such as Iran, but proxy units such as Hezbollah and Hamas, the tactical advantage that has long been on Israel's  side is now drastically reduced. Israel's  option would become an issue of "disproportionality". To put it simply, in the early hours of a major, combined attack by multiple forces from different locations, Israel would have to resort to responding in a manner much more saver than the attack they were suffering. Thus; the disproportional response that would most likely lead to a fast escalation of the conflict. In fact, the only chance Israel may have to "level the playing field" would be to respond in just this fashion. Remember, the issue of technologically advanced enemies. The missile attacks alone  on Israel could be devastating  not only physically, but emotionally in just the first few hours of the conflict.

3.  Israel is quickly  reaching the classic point in history where, " a good defense is a strong offense".  Ask yourself a simple question; can Israel gamble the existence of their nation by waiting for its enemies to make the first move; remembering the disadvantages they are soon facing-- surrounded by capable and dedicated enemies.  Believe me when I tell you, the Israelis understand this paradox!

Tomorrow, I will talk about the tactical way this tragedy  make take place.

Remember this; the art of negotiating "peace" requires two sides that  wish to have peace.  Is this really what the issue is in the Middle East? Do both sides want to coexist? What side to you hear almost daily saying the Zionist Regime is going to be struck from the earth? Do you really think that side wants peace?

Sadly; talking has seldom been the answer in warfare.

THE DAY  THE  STL  GOES  BAD!!!!

Yesterday I talked about why the STL, Special Tribunal on Lebanon, event is a real flash point for the Middle East and for the US. Tonight I will give my opinion, I know... everyone has one, how the STL may trigger a conflict and why Iran may or may not want  it to happen just now.

How might this event happen?

Just take a look at the map of Lebanon I posted above and it is easy to see why the division lines are so tenuous. Lebanon is not your usual "melting pot". Like Europe and England, the Lebanese version of multiculturalism is nothing more than dividing lines across the country. make one wrong turn and you can end up in bad guy territory depending on what side your belong to.

Ok; Hezbollah,  has it's marching orders as well as their own goals. Iran wants Hezbollah to be positioned to strike or counter strike at Israel across from their other main force, Hamas in Gaza. Stack this on top of Syria and now maybe Egypt and the Iranians have more than just a strategic advantage, they could have a checkmate move!!  Hezbollah had to take their time gaining power in Lebanon based on the demographics referred to earlier. Their actions of last month, bringing down the Lebanese coalition  government, was not only part of the master plan from Iran, but it was executed at the perfect time to begin the process of circumventing the STL report / trial or at least that is what Iran hopes for.

Here are the next moves, again in my opinion. 

1. The STL announces the list of Hezbollah members the UN finds to be responsible for the murder of the Lebanese Prime Minister in 2005.

2. Hezbollah lets the interim Government announce they do not support the STL. 

3. Hezbollah leadership gives a canned press conference,  a fiery one, that again claims the whole STL process is a US/ Israeli generated event to discredit Hezbollah. Oh ya; did I mention the UN officially doesn't recognize Hezbollah as a Terrorist organization? True story. The UN official description of Hezbollah is a Political movement that is illegally armed!!!! WHAT??? Political Correctness gone wild. Again, we will hear that Israel actually killed the Lebanese Prime Minister.

4. Iran will weigh in stating the people of Lebanon have given their support to Hezbollah and the "West" is interfering with Lebanese internal politics. Hint. This is a theme that will carry a great deal of weight in the Middle East right now.

5. The US, let's hope, will announce the UN / STL must be allowed to go forward in the name of justice or some other corny DoS statement like that.

6. The Lebanese military will do all it can to keep the Sunni factions from kicking up more than just small demonstrations.

7. The UN / STL will announce the proceeding will go on in " Abstention" if need be, thereby circumventing  the Lebanese Government supporting or not supporting the STL findings.

8. Hezbollah and its backers, Syria, who just may keep a low profile in this event and I will talk about why that might be tomorrow night, and Iran will declare the trail and all its proceedings null and void.

9. UN / STL will issue warrants for the Hezbollah suspects and Hezbollah will ignore the whole process.

10. UN and others will threaten Embargos on Lebanon for non compliance.

11. The other Arab nations will weigh in according to their religious heritage  at the sametime trying to stand as the peace keepers.

Thus; the battle lines are set!!!!

Conflict!!! Ah.. I will get into that on Wednesday night.

http://www.stl-tsl.org/

Ok: for those of you who don't know what the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is / STL/ try the link attached.

Why is this event important?

Up until the Tunisian Virus events of the past month, the STL process was quickly leading to the very real threat of organized violence in Lebanon that could and still can lead to open conflict between Israel and Iran / Syria / Lebanon / Hamas / Hezbollah. 

What is it? Here is the cheap version, but I would recommend you read the link.  

In 2005, the Leader of Lebanon was murdered, along with many others, by a huge car bomb. It is common knowledge that Hezbollah was responsible for the event, but with backing from Syria and Iran.

The Government of Lebanon requested an investigation by the UN to determine who was responsible for the event.

Well; the findings are about to be made public and several key members of Hezbollah are probably going to be named as the primary suspects.

Hezbollah / Syria / Iran  all know this will seriously hinder the Iranian master plan of having a Iranian controlled, proxy government in control of Lebanon.

Why does Iran want a "controlled" government in Lebanon? Look at the borders of Israel and see if you can figure it out.

If everything goes to Iran's plan, they will have Hamas on one side, Hezbollah on the other and now possibly a anti Israeli government in Egypt. Yep, one that may not be pro Iranian, but one they can secretly work with to conspire against their common enemy; Israel. If you don't think this can happen, look at the Iranian relationship with OBL's people. Never forget one of the oldest sayings in the Middle East, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

Ok; back to the STL! 

As of a few days ago, the Iranians and Hezbollah had the perfect distraction from the STL pending event; Egypt.  What worries them now is two issues.

                1.  The events in Egypt seem to be stabilizing and the US has woken up to the disastrous policy                of running around demanding that Mubarak leave now.

                2.  The United Nations Tribunal is speeding up their timeline for release of its investigation.

                Why are they speeding up the timeline you might ask?

                                a.  They realize the maneuver Hezbollah pulled last month of dissolving the government                                           coalition in Lebanon is simply a preemptive strike to avoid the STL findings. The STL is                                                 Something the UN has worked too hard for  to prove their value to the rest of the world.                                            They are out to prove to the world the UN is capable of investigating international                                        incidents and holding a trial. Scary concept in many ways.

Ok; what is the point of this discussion?

If the STL is successful, and I believe they will be, in naming names in Hezbollah that should stand trial for the events in 2005, then Hezbollah as a potential, acceptable political party in Lebanon is all but wrecked.  If that happens, Iran loses a strategic part of their master plan for warfare with Israel. Think of it as the old Soviet Empire losing a key Warsaw Pack Satellite  country.

Here is, in my opinion, the crazy part of this whole STL event.

If the STL is somehow defeated or doesn't have the impact of removing Hezbollah from the political arena, then Israel could be faced with a three front war if they have a conflict with Iran.

If Israel sees Hezbollah / Iran / Syria having things their way in Lebanon to the point the Lebanese Army is nothing more than a tool to attack Israel, then warfare in the entire region is more than a possibility!!

Oh ya; here is the kicker; the US  has been supplying the Lebanese military for over two years now.

In 1973, the Soviet Union watched billions of dollars of equipment and aid go up in smoke with the defeat  of the Arab militaries on the battlefields with Israel. We could be looking at the same thing.

I have just scratched the surface of what this whole STL event could mean to the US and it's allies.

I will concentrate more on this regional topic in the next few nights, given the Egyptian Woodstock seems to be settling in for the long haul!.

Happy 100th Birthday Mr President!!!









Where did the uprising in Egypt go? Oh ya; it was Super Bowl Sunday!!!

Well Mubarak nor the MB made any big moves today, at least not on the surface. I think it's hard to maintain the momentum going when you announce you are only going to "protest' on Tuesdays and Fridays!!!!   Does anyone really think Mubarak is going to contemplate leaving before September now? Really??  Most governments have gone through the training and realize if they just hold on, most of the time a real good "revolt / protest / will simply play itself out.  I am not convinced this is the absolute truth for Egypt, but I would say Mubarak does have the upper hand again.

The MB has two strategic options at this point in time.

                1. Let things go with the flow and see what they can come up with in the realm of a coalition     government. Again, this goes along with my statements about the MB taking the Lebanon path        to power.  Time is their friend barring some drastic move by Iran or Israel.

                2.  Bring back the violence on a much larger scale than last week.  The MB still understands that              any violent act against "peaceful protesters" will instantly be blamed on the Egyptian          government.     In this matter they still have the upper hand.

As of tonight, my opinion is they are working on other issues.  Taking this "uprising" concept to the next level in areas they chose is probably what they are working on. Remember, this was not their idea and taking over the human momentum requires planning, sound planning, and time. 

The quiet before the storm? Maybe!!  

WHEN YOU RUN WITH WOLVES, YOU MAY BE EATEN!!!

The MB may be running into a huge problem. The "Revolt" is getting boring to the rest of the world. There was very little blood today and that doesn't sell airtime for  the world press.  You could almost hear the disappointment in their voices all day long. " Compared to the past few days, today was relatively quiet" RATS.. If it bleeds, it leads. I saying my good friend Chuck has told me over and over again.  Mubarak is a crafty veteran of controversy and he may very well figured out a way to ride the storm out for now.  

Remember two important points over the next few days.

                1.  The MB and the " Radicals" may shift their energy from a near term victory in Egypt to fresh events in Jordan or Yemen. The golden calf, no pun intended for us fellow Christians, is still Saudi and I am confident the wheels are turning inside  the Muslim version of "Specter".  If that one got past you, then you need to watch classic James Bond more. 

2.  The battle for control of the "Virus" is still very much up in the air.  As hard as the Sunni, MB is trying to keep everything moving their way, the Shiite / Iran / is still in a full court press to capture the movement.  This battle could be one of the reasons for the pause in follow on events else ware.   

One saving grace about the Persians and the Arabs is their historic inability to agree.

There is a scene in Laurence of Arabia, just after they capture Aqaba, where Laurence witness the instantaneous feuding over who will be in control of the city. Classic depiction of their inability to form a true Union. Laurence even tells them this. The same holds true in 2011. It's one of the most important advantages the Western, Christian world really has.

I would say more, but I don't want to run out of great ideas!!!!

TALKING HEADS STARTING TO RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY!!!

One thing became clear to me today, the talking heads have started to run out of things to say.

"What's going to happen"? Well; how many times can that question be answered?

Oh ya; the story about the attempted assignation of the VP in Egypt is up in the air right now, but if it's true, I am sure the moderate MB would never have condoned such an act!!! Lord now I sound like the Talking Heads on TV.  The MB probably pulled out the Sadat "playbook".

Ok back to the task at hand. What do we know today that we didn't know yesterday? Answer, not much!!  The whole thing is much like a Chess Match. One move is what's going on in Egypt, the other moves are:

                1. What is going on in other Muslim Countries?               

                                Oh ya; Why is everyone fixated on this only taking place in Muslim Countries. If food and                          the price of food is one of the core issues, Talking Head viewpoint that I don't agree                                             with, then why are we only looking at Muslim nations?  I'm not going to comment yet. I                                      want to see if the "professionals" on TV begin to figure out why they are only talking                                         about Muslim countries. I will give it another two days and then give my answer.

                2.  What in the world is the US and it's allies doing to war-game the next few weeks, months?

                Here is a topic I am really worried about.  Policy can't come from watching Fox and CNN and      then having a meeting to come up with a quick sound bite for the press. Yep; the way it's done            now.

3.  Poor old Israel!!!  If anything keeps me up at night right now, it's the thought of the Israelis growing more and more desperate.  I said this yesterday, but I will say it again. When they watched the US abandon Egypt's leadership in the course of two days, that had to set them back on heels!.  A classic example of a "knee Jerk Reaction" with no thoughts of Second and Third order Effects.

Here is the real problem. It's Super Bowl Weekend and the whole country, " Joe Six Pack" is going to funnel in the pre-pre game show. ... the pre game show... Hundreds of dumb very rich Jocks talking saying incredibly visionary things like, " IF DA TURN DA BALL OVRR DA MAY LOSE"!!!

If I was worried about US reaction and I wanted to do something to end or drastically increase the events in Egypt, I would do it Saturday night or Sunday morning our time.  No network in their right mind will interrupt the hours of Super Bowl hype over Egypt.

Get ready for something by Saturday or Sunday am.   



THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE "VIRUS"!!

One thing has become very clear in the past several weeks. Both sides of the Radical Islamic movement have come to realize the power of the Tunisian Virus!! Both the Sunni and Shiite are scrambling to shape the "freedom" phenomenon into a tool for them to leverage. Ironically, both sides see the danger of the virus yet they cannot resist finding a way to weaponize   the bug! They also understand they are in a classic "arms race" to get control of the event. Syria and Iran, more so Iran than Syria, see the advantage of a drastically weakened Egypt that could eventually fall into their court.  yet; the Syrian government is beginning not to sleep at night. It is very possible the virus may spread to Syria before their keepers, Iran, can figure out how to turn this whole event into a Shiite windfall.  Never forget the age old Persian / Arabic issue here. 

Here is Syria's problem; most of the country is Sunni!!!!  If the MB takes control of the virus, remember the MB is Sunni, then Syria becomes a prime target.  The Syrian leadership is seen as sellouts to Iran, Shiite Iranian Masters.  If a week or a month from now, Iran wakes up and sees "issues inside of Syria, the alarm bells are really going to go off!!!! The virus will be out of the weapon's lab and the city may be turning into Zombies!!!

Interesting times for sure, but don't take your eyes off the real issue here. ISRAEL!!!

Egypt descending into political turmoil is nothing short of a true nightmare for Israel.

Stack that on top of how quickly the Israelis watched the US abandon the Leader of Egypt, a guarded Friend of the US and you have the makings of a blunder by our DoS of epic proportions.  Don't rule out the fact that the US's actions could realistically lead to armed conflict by Israel. An armed conflict that could include Syria, Iran, Lebanon all at one time.

Can this whole thing get worse? absolutely!!

Will it? Let's hope not, but the long-range crystal ball does not look good!!!