TALKING HEADS STARTING TO RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY!!!

One thing became clear to me today, the talking heads have started to run out of things to say.

"What's going to happen"? Well; how many times can that question be answered?

Oh ya; the story about the attempted assignation of the VP in Egypt is up in the air right now, but if it's true, I am sure the moderate MB would never have condoned such an act!!! Lord now I sound like the Talking Heads on TV.  The MB probably pulled out the Sadat "playbook".

Ok back to the task at hand. What do we know today that we didn't know yesterday? Answer, not much!!  The whole thing is much like a Chess Match. One move is what's going on in Egypt, the other moves are:

                1. What is going on in other Muslim Countries?               

                                Oh ya; Why is everyone fixated on this only taking place in Muslim Countries. If food and                          the price of food is one of the core issues, Talking Head viewpoint that I don't agree                                             with, then why are we only looking at Muslim nations?  I'm not going to comment yet. I                                      want to see if the "professionals" on TV begin to figure out why they are only talking                                         about Muslim countries. I will give it another two days and then give my answer.

                2.  What in the world is the US and it's allies doing to war-game the next few weeks, months?

                Here is a topic I am really worried about.  Policy can't come from watching Fox and CNN and      then having a meeting to come up with a quick sound bite for the press. Yep; the way it's done            now.

3.  Poor old Israel!!!  If anything keeps me up at night right now, it's the thought of the Israelis growing more and more desperate.  I said this yesterday, but I will say it again. When they watched the US abandon Egypt's leadership in the course of two days, that had to set them back on heels!.  A classic example of a "knee Jerk Reaction" with no thoughts of Second and Third order Effects.

Here is the real problem. It's Super Bowl Weekend and the whole country, " Joe Six Pack" is going to funnel in the pre-pre game show. ... the pre game show... Hundreds of dumb very rich Jocks talking saying incredibly visionary things like, " IF DA TURN DA BALL OVRR DA MAY LOSE"!!!

If I was worried about US reaction and I wanted to do something to end or drastically increase the events in Egypt, I would do it Saturday night or Sunday morning our time.  No network in their right mind will interrupt the hours of Super Bowl hype over Egypt.

Get ready for something by Saturday or Sunday am.   



THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE "VIRUS"!!

One thing has become very clear in the past several weeks. Both sides of the Radical Islamic movement have come to realize the power of the Tunisian Virus!! Both the Sunni and Shiite are scrambling to shape the "freedom" phenomenon into a tool for them to leverage. Ironically, both sides see the danger of the virus yet they cannot resist finding a way to weaponize   the bug! They also understand they are in a classic "arms race" to get control of the event. Syria and Iran, more so Iran than Syria, see the advantage of a drastically weakened Egypt that could eventually fall into their court.  yet; the Syrian government is beginning not to sleep at night. It is very possible the virus may spread to Syria before their keepers, Iran, can figure out how to turn this whole event into a Shiite windfall.  Never forget the age old Persian / Arabic issue here. 

Here is Syria's problem; most of the country is Sunni!!!!  If the MB takes control of the virus, remember the MB is Sunni, then Syria becomes a prime target.  The Syrian leadership is seen as sellouts to Iran, Shiite Iranian Masters.  If a week or a month from now, Iran wakes up and sees "issues inside of Syria, the alarm bells are really going to go off!!!! The virus will be out of the weapon's lab and the city may be turning into Zombies!!!

Interesting times for sure, but don't take your eyes off the real issue here. ISRAEL!!!

Egypt descending into political turmoil is nothing short of a true nightmare for Israel.

Stack that on top of how quickly the Israelis watched the US abandon the Leader of Egypt, a guarded Friend of the US and you have the makings of a blunder by our DoS of epic proportions.  Don't rule out the fact that the US's actions could realistically lead to armed conflict by Israel. An armed conflict that could include Syria, Iran, Lebanon all at one time.

Can this whole thing get worse? absolutely!!

Will it? Let's hope not, but the long-range crystal ball does not look good!!!

HERE COME THE THUGS!!!  N0!! not the King. He is the poor guy who is not sleeping at night right now.

Well; it took a week, but the classic Mubarak reaction teams finally came out. My gut feeling is they took a few days figuring out where the best places to show up would be, how they wanted to execute and then making sure the authorities were up to speed on what they would be doing.  

The MB will not waste a single minute taking advantage of the pro Mubarak forces showing up. In fact, they, the MB, probably had figured into their plans the fact the Mubarak forces would show up.  

Why did Mubarak have them show up now?  A couple of theories come to mind.

                1.  The military has to have a viable excuse to take real action and prolonged violence could be               the tool.

                2.  He had them ready and waited to give his speech showing how we was meeting the demands            of the public before unleashing them; thus giving the perception of the crowds being unwilling           to find a peaceful resolution to the event.  This is my bet!!!

                3. Those who are  pro Mubarak are preparing to show they are just trying to restore calm to the                               streets of Egypt.   To do that, you need "real violence"

So what is going to happen next?

The Military has to stay with Mubarak or stay with the faction that is against change in leadership, or they have to abandon the current government and do nothing more that keep order.

My guess is the Military is going to have to dictate the interim Government and perhaps place a figure head in charge and remove Mubarak. A dangerous move given the split in the military forces this could lead to.

One thing is clear, the next real move in Egypt will be executed by the military not the Government or the protesters.

Ok; next topic; Biological Warfare!!!

It is extremely interesting to  see the slightest of rumblings of unrest in Syria. To the outsider this might appear puzzling. How is it that a "virus" the US and our Allies believes could easily lead to groups like the MB taking control of critical nations in the Middle East could possibly lead to one of enemies imploding from the same sickness?  If the MB is out to use this unrest to push their agenda and Iran, the MB mortal enemy, back the unrest as well, then why would Iran support something that could take down their proxy puppet?  Two answers to this issue.

                1.  The MB is Sunni and the destruction of the Shiite powerbase  is secondary only to the            destruction of Israel.

2.  Every SciFi movie about Zombies starts with someone or some nation uses a secret  "germ" and then the whole thing backfires. Well; if the MB and Iran have determined that Social networks and civil unrest is the best way to get rid of the "Old Guard" loyal to the West, well then, they have become the idiots who let the germ out that killed them.  Will it work in Syria and Iran like it is working in Egypt? I don't think so, but like any virus, it will mutate and have different effects on different "host".

It's something I will talk about on Thursday.





It just gets worse and worse for Israel!!!!!

I've said this for several days now, but the truth is none of us with the exception of the Israelis really comprehends what is unfolding in the Middle East.

The short stories is not a pretty one.  The road to Democracy is being paved by the Fundamentalist!

Let's keep this short and simple tonight.  When Egypt holds general elections and when that is becomes anyone's guess, the end results could very well be a Government of 80 million Muslims on a path to Sharia law. 

Over the past two days I heard the regular group of suspect "talking heads" rambling on about how MB / Muslim Brotherhood / is a " non Violent organization that is for peaceful change!!!

WHAT????

What University "think-tank" did these idiots evolve from?  Someone ask Sadat how peaceful the MB is. Oh  ya.. that's right . they KILLED HIM!!

It's one thing to hear this asinine analysis on US / Western / media, but can anyone imagine how this plays in Israel?  At the sake of sounding 18 yrs old.. OMG!!!!   

If the US / John Q Public definition of "things seem to be getting better" is based upon not seeing large crowds in the streets, then we are sliding closer and closer to the edge of the cliff in the Middle East.

Really, the current rhythm of events in Egypt is so disturbing, I find it hard to think about.     

Let me end this post by asking one simple question.

What is going to happen if six to twelve months from now, we have a democratically elected government in Egypt and that government decides to open up the Egyptian blockade of Gaza?

If you have not thought about Gaza and Egypt, I can assure you the Israelis have .

The crowds may die down, but the crisis is growing at a furious rate.  

Ok; If you were keeping score on events in Egypt, today would have been a two touchdown advantage for the badguys / Muslim Brotherhood!! For the Egyptian Jimmy Carter, you know who I mean, picture provided, to even contemplate the idea of forming an alliance with the Brotherhood is a huge move in the wrong direction from the US standpoint. Does the US understand this? yes, I believe so. Does the US understand how to counter this possible event? I remain unconvinced.

Can this really happen? Can the Egyptian people be amenable to such a dangerous event? Ask yourself two questions.

1.  What is the alternative; in other words; who has a counter plan ready to exicute?

2. How bad are things getting for the people? I mentioned yesterday the devistating issue of food shortages, medical facilities faltering. It's a simple of issue of how affraid and how desperate to the people of Egypt get? Panic is a powerful weapon in the proper hands and the Brotherhood is becoming fast learners.

Ok; so what next?  I said it before and I will say it again; keep an eye on Saudi and others like Kuwait and Bahrain, EAU, ect...

Egypt is going to have a telling day on Tuesday!!! By this time tomorrow, FEAR can become the controlling environment in not only Egypt, but in the "Royal Families" of several countries. They know what I said the day I started this blog. "As Egypt goes, so goes the Middle East".

Hold on Israel!!!   Hard decision could be close at hand.

Egypt's Jimmy Carter.. Remember, Carter gave us Iran...

Here comes the real problem with the events in Egypt.  With the passing of several days and the event showing no real signs of slowing down, the "radicals" have had time to plot how they can manipulate the event. As I said before, they were caught off guard by the events in Tunisia. They were hopeful of events in Egypt, but they simply had no idea how fast and how extreme this crisis would escalate. Having said that, watch the events of the next few days. The influence they and others, Iran, will begin to execute could drastically change the course of Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood and others, Iran, understand that a few significant acts in the next few days could alter the course of Egypt.   I understand the theory that a large, mostly unprofessional Police Force that decided to quit could be behind events such as prison breaks. I also understand that a rapid loss of civil order leads to looting and violence. I get it when someone tells me the Egyptian Army is not equipped or trained to fill in for large portions of the civilian infrastructure. The US concept of Defense Support to Civilian Authority / DSCA  or whatever the new buzz word is now, is alien to the Egyptian Military. I get it!!! Most of what we are witnessing is a byproduct of civil collapse in short order. Here is my main concern. The "radicals" regardless of what they believe in, are in a position to fold these actions into tools for their goals. Yesterday I posted on CNN the fact that most of the "snipers" that were being reported as being Government operations could in fact be the "Radicals" taking advantage of the madness. The concept of shooting innocent civilians in large crowds full of deafening noise knowing full well the Government will take the blame is an old trick. Just ask Hugo Chavez how to make this work for you. He was and is the master of this tactic.

Ok; where am I going with all of this rambling? Here is what I think will happen in the next few days.

1.  The Egyptian Army must decide to back or not back the current government. If they decide to pull their support, someone must show them what an Interim government will look like. Short story, you must convince them what they are about to abandon is going to be replaced by something that will allow the country to calm down.

2.  The Muslim Brotherhood:

They must decide to feed the violence or show they can be part of the calming process; become part of the interim solution. This hinges on them having a plan to win power through a slower, non revolutionary process. Short title, do they go the way of Lebanon or do they try and Push an Iranian Revolution concept?

3. Iran;

 Iran must decide on how they can leverage this event and possible future events in the Domino Theory. Remember, distraction from their weapons program is the strategic goal here. Yes, the same "virus" that has infected Egypt and several others could come to Iran, but Iran has recently put down such  a movement and has a plan to deal with such things far beyond what Egypt, Saudi or Kuwait could dream of. I don't believe Iran will sacrifice Hamas for the sake of supporting their enemy the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is a tool that must be kept for a war with Israel.  Side note; I wonder who will betray whom in that relationship first. Persians and Arabs promising to help each other. Don't hold your breath on that one!

What does Iran do? How do they avoid the "virus"? Does these events give Iran the distraction they need? It's going to be interesting to watch Iran's actions.

4. Israel:

If the Pentagon planners are burning the midnight oil and I hope they are, then just imagine what is going on in the IDF and its leadership.  DEBKA, a great website / www.debka.com  nailed the issue yesterday. Israel is facing a three front war now. Hamas in Gaza and soon the West Bank. Hezbollah in control of Lebanon; oh by the way eyeballs on the Special Tribunal Lebanon / STL / will all but disappear as the Tunisian Virus threatens to spread.  And last but not leased Israel is now fixated on Egypt and the real threat of Sunni Radials / Muslim Brotherhood / gaining power. Side note; if there is one country that has looked at the issue of radicals running Egypt, it will be Israel. Hopefully they have thought this through and have some brilliant annex to a master plan they can dust off. Wishful thinking, I know!

5. The United States:

I said it yesterday and I will say it again and again. I truly hope the US government is planning on this "Tunisian Virus" taking hold in other key countries. If a plan for such events is not being reviewed for Saudi and Kuwait and a few others along the Gulf, then the troubles are only going to get worse.

I know everyone is getting ready for the Super Bowl or the new season of American Idol, but the Middle East is on a collision course a calamity that could rival the fall of the Soviet Empire. 

Interesting times for sure.