HONG KONG AND KASHMIR. 

HOW ARE THE TWO RELATED? 

Last night, I posted a podcast, they are getting funner with each passing day, on the topic of Kashmir and why the event was not "typical" of the constant tensions between India and Pakistan. At the end of that post, I told everyone I would jump back to the topic of Hong Kong for my next post as that issue seems to be heading for even deeper troubled waters. Well, when I sat down today to collect my thoughts on the Hong Kong issue, it dawned on me, the two are interrelated and far more so than most people realize. So, here we go. Let me draw the lines between the two and see where it takes your opinion. 

Coming of Age:

If the events in Kashmir and Hong Kong show the world anything, it's the reality that in the not too distant future, global issues will be addressed or initiated without the guidance of the West / US.  Now, before you jump to the conclusion this is yet another opinion on the decline of the West / US, let me just say this. You may be correct, but before you give up and don't finish reading this post, let me give you a warning as to why you just can't walk away from this opinion. As a reminder, who is it that Beijing blames for the crisis in Hong Kong? if you saw one of my post on Twitter this morning, @ColDan11, you noticed my swipe at the idiot Nancy Pelosi. For her to come out and make a statement that the events in Honk Kong, " is a beautiful sight to behold", well, as I stated in my Twitter post, many a conflict have been based upon the ignorance of political leaders. Did her words stoke the paranoia in Beijing? How could it not have. Do they see her as a second string idiot? Let's hope so. As much as China would like to blame the US for what is taking place in Hong Kong, at the end of the day, the Emperor knows the real issue is Beijing. The center of the tension is the Chinese assault on individual freedoms. Hong Kong is a threat to China and China knows this could just be the beginning of social unrest inside the Empire.  Try as they may, blaming the US will not solve the unrest they are facing and that makes the whole situation even more dangerous than if the US really was behind the event. 

Kashmir is yet another example of the West / US  sitting back and observing a bad situation become much worse. By the way. We could blame the West / UK for the clueless borders they put together at the end of World War I, but that's a story for another day. What makes this situation even more dangerous than Hong Kong is the reality the two parties involved have nuclear weapons. Did I mention they don't like each other? If you didn't know that, you need to know. It's not bomb-shelter time yet, but the threat is out there. Yes, the US and others can attempt to plug in all the typical breakers that are normally applied to incidents between India and Pakistan, but that whole issue of relevancy comes back to to the forefront. The "issues" between India and Pakistan are not controlled by the West / US. Worse than that, the key player in this game of Risk is the very nation that we just finished talking about. China. How does China manipulate the issue of Kashmir? What side does the Empire take? Are the ties with Pakistan stronger than those with India? Is India a larger threat in the near future? Ah, now there is the issue at hand! Fifty years from now, who does China worry about? the decaying West  / US , or the other nation that will have 2 BILLION people by then as well? India will have huge needs and so will China. Can two nations on the same course keep from colliding? There is a opinion in the US, one I happen to agree with, that it's better to take on China now than attempt to do so twenty years from now. If you ask me, it's the real reason behind the so called Trade Wars. As bad as things might get economically, can the West  / US afford to face a China twenty years from now? Can China wait to see if India falls apart? Should China act to bring India down a few notches now and perhaps avoid a much larger issue down the road? If you are one of those who has sipped the Kool-Aid of an India / China relationship, I'm afraid you've not been paying attention. 

Changing of the Guard:

  Are the days of the West / US manipulating what is taking place in the world coming to an end? Did Obama do more harm than most of us realize? If someone is trying to paint a picture of the West / US being irrelevant in the near future, than they have an agenda are are most likely running for office somewhere. Having said that, here is the stark reality. The ability to control events from a Western perspective is fading, but at a pace most people sitting in their living rooms don't see. Kashmir and Hong Kong are events that DC will will have little impact on and that's only if DC attempts to do so. Don't forget, it's " Pon Farr" season in the US and unless there is a great deal of blood the media can cover, they are all stuck on the political mating dance and nothing else matters. Iran grabbed yet another tanker last week. Get my point?

Times change and often that is not an indication of better times ahead. Did the US start World War I or World War II? Argue if you want over the economic conditions, but the first shots fired did not come from the West. Is Kashmir a real danger? yes. Is China involved in the danger? Yes. Is Hong Kong a real danger? Yes. Is China involved? Yes. Do you see a pattern here? It's not bunker time yet folks, but you may want to have a good set of plans on your desk!