MUQTADA AL-SADR…..”IT’S NOW OR NEVER”
If you are in a hurry today and you don’t know the answer to
the question, here it is.
No. He was never gone!
If you have the time to think through what is taking place
with him, then here we go.
Muqtada al-Sadr is what to Iraq, the Iraq of 2016, not 2003?
First let’s face some cold hard facts so we can continue on
with analyzing what his name popping back into the picture truly means.
To the US and the Western forces that fought in Iraq, he is
and was a stone cold killer and the facts are, many US and Western service
members were killed by his followers!
Another fact, he was and is a national hero to many of the
Shia and even some of the Sunni in Iraq and that cross sectarian support makes
him a very unique and powerful person.
Here is another fact, that must be mixed into the conversation.
He has never been a true Iranian lapdog! Yes, he followed their commands and
yes he carried out their wishes,espessaly in the early days of the War in Iraq,
but if you could get him alone, I would be willing to bet the “friendship/ loyalty”
story would be very different. Short
answer, he used Iran! He used Iran to the extent he deemed necessary and when
the time came to pull away, he did just that.
So what is al-Sadr?
Easy….he’s a Nationalist, and like all true, driven
nationalistic leaders, he is an egomaniac! Well….no surprises there! All one
has to do is look at how young he was when he truly thought he could become the
spiritual leader for Iraq…..in his 20s….really….even his own people smiled at
the somewhat comical thought of a 20 something
becoming a spiritual leader! Yes his Dad was a well-known man, but he probably
heard an old President Reagan more than once, “ I knew you Father and you are
no …..”! Didn’t go over well with him,
but it did show him something he came to understand. Somethings take time and
at 20 something, he had just that, time!
The problem was, he had to stay alive in a country were doing so was
more than a challenge. Could he run back to Iran and hide out for ten or
fifteen years? Probably not, burned that bridge!
Where did he go?
The short answer is, dormant, passive, off the radar!
The more complex answer is he went to school! He did what a
twenty something dreamer has to do if they want to live to see their dreams
come true. He shut up and listened, watched and planned and then….waited! Most importantly…………he grew! He expanded his
network and he became a very dedicated student of what was really happening in
the region and how he could exploit every ounce of what was taking place.
He had and has a problem.
The Islamic State movement! No one understood the origin of this
organization better than al-Sadr, but it was Sunni based and violent beyond
even his standards! He had severely weakened his stance with the Shia
Mothership, Iran and at the time when the I.S units rushed back into Iraq, virtually
pushing all the way to Bagdad, al-Sadr’s dreams came dangerously close to disappearing
in the fire of I.S madness! Was it too
late? Would Iraq fall into the total madness Syria had become? Had his time
passed and with it, his dream of being the real leader, savior of Iraq?
As if the twist of the I.S. movement wasn’t enough to foil
al-Sadr’s dreams, the Persians gave him an even greater challenge.
Up until the time of his parting of ways with the Iranians,
al-Sadr was the Shia hero of Iraq. His fighters were thought to be the best the
Shia had to offer and they would execute any order their hero would give them.
But, the Iranians were about to head in a new direction and that direction didn’t
include al-Sadr!
With the failure of the Iraqi army and the advancement of
the I.S. Zombies, the Iranians needed to place some obstacle in front of the
I.S. fighters and their best bet were the Shia militias!
There is one reality about young men who know nothing but
conflict and the adrenalin surge it brings them. They would rather fight than
find a real job and become even remotely responsible for their day to day
lives. The Iranian’s needed fighters and the fighters who had in support of
al-Sadr loved the idea of continuing the thrill of killing. Not only did many of them jump at the opportunity
to join new Shia militias, most were even more committed than in the past; for
you see, this was a religious war now and the Sunni / I.S. fighters had to die!
Could al-Sadr have prevented many of the Shia fighters from
forming new groups, groups with alliances to Iran? Perhaps some of them, but in
the end, what purpose would that have served? How would that impact his dream?
Al-Sadr took a gamble. He risked his relevancy. Would the
new Shia militia leaders push al-Sadr into Iraq’s past?
Is this that was driven al-Sadr to step back onto the stage
in Iraq, or was this moment in time all part of his master plan?
He is over 40 now and far closer to being given the respect
by his religious superiors he so badly dreamed of in the past. He was no longer
the leader of the Shia resistance, a resistance not based on pushing the
Western Infidels out of Iraq, but saving the Shia faith from the new, even more
historical threat………….The radical Sunnis…..I.S!
So, why is he back after all this time?
It may not have been his plan, but my bet is he has changed
his plan. He has moved his timetable. He
has reevaluated what needs to be done!
The Abadi government is in the back pocket of the
Iranians. The Iranians control the Shia militias,
militias that once only took their orders from him.
Sometime in the past few months, al-Sadr may have awoken
from one of his dreams to realize………………it’s now or never!
How do the Persians react to this Iraqi Nationalist? What to do with him?
Let’s see how this plays out!