Here comes the real problem with the events in Egypt. With the passing of several days and the event showing no real signs of slowing down, the "radicals" have had time to plot how they can manipulate the event. As I said before, they were caught off guard by the events in Tunisia. They were hopeful of events in Egypt, but they simply had no idea how fast and how extreme this crisis would escalate. Having said that, watch the events of the next few days. The influence they and others, Iran, will begin to execute could drastically change the course of Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood and others, Iran, understand that a few significant acts in the next few days could alter the course of Egypt. I understand the theory that a large, mostly unprofessional Police Force that decided to quit could be behind events such as prison breaks. I also understand that a rapid loss of civil order leads to looting and violence. I get it when someone tells me the Egyptian Army is not equipped or trained to fill in for large portions of the civilian infrastructure. The US concept of Defense Support to Civilian Authority / DSCA or whatever the new buzz word is now, is alien to the Egyptian Military. I get it!!! Most of what we are witnessing is a byproduct of civil collapse in short order. Here is my main concern. The "radicals" regardless of what they believe in, are in a position to fold these actions into tools for their goals. Yesterday I posted on CNN the fact that most of the "snipers" that were being reported as being Government operations could in fact be the "Radicals" taking advantage of the madness. The concept of shooting innocent civilians in large crowds full of deafening noise knowing full well the Government will take the blame is an old trick. Just ask Hugo Chavez how to make this work for you. He was and is the master of this tactic.
Ok; where am I going with all of this rambling? Here is what I think will happen in the next few days.
1. The Egyptian Army must decide to back or not back the current government. If they decide to pull their support, someone must show them what an Interim government will look like. Short story, you must convince them what they are about to abandon is going to be replaced by something that will allow the country to calm down.
2. The Muslim Brotherhood:
They must decide to feed the violence or show they can be part of the calming process; become part of the interim solution. This hinges on them having a plan to win power through a slower, non revolutionary process. Short title, do they go the way of Lebanon or do they try and Push an Iranian Revolution concept?
3. Iran;
Iran must decide on how they can leverage this event and possible future events in the Domino Theory. Remember, distraction from their weapons program is the strategic goal here. Yes, the same "virus" that has infected Egypt and several others could come to Iran, but Iran has recently put down such a movement and has a plan to deal with such things far beyond what Egypt, Saudi or Kuwait could dream of. I don't believe Iran will sacrifice Hamas for the sake of supporting their enemy the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is a tool that must be kept for a war with Israel. Side note; I wonder who will betray whom in that relationship first. Persians and Arabs promising to help each other. Don't hold your breath on that one!
What does Iran do? How do they avoid the "virus"? Does these events give Iran the distraction they need? It's going to be interesting to watch Iran's actions.
4. Israel:
If the Pentagon planners are burning the midnight oil and I hope they are, then just imagine what is going on in the IDF and its leadership. DEBKA, a great website / www.debka.com nailed the issue yesterday. Israel is facing a three front war now. Hamas in Gaza and soon the West Bank. Hezbollah in control of Lebanon; oh by the way eyeballs on the Special Tribunal Lebanon / STL / will all but disappear as the Tunisian Virus threatens to spread. And last but not leased Israel is now fixated on Egypt and the real threat of Sunni Radials / Muslim Brotherhood / gaining power. Side note; if there is one country that has looked at the issue of radicals running Egypt, it will be Israel. Hopefully they have thought this through and have some brilliant annex to a master plan they can dust off. Wishful thinking, I know!
5. The United States:
I said it yesterday and I will say it again and again. I truly hope the US government is planning on this "Tunisian Virus" taking hold in other key countries. If a plan for such events is not being reviewed for Saudi and Kuwait and a few others along the Gulf, then the troubles are only going to get worse.
I know everyone is getting ready for the Super Bowl or the new season of American Idol, but the Middle East is on a collision course a calamity that could rival the fall of the Soviet Empire.
Interesting times for sure.